361
FXUS65 KBOU 061156
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
456 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND SNOW RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS AND ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- MUCH MILDER WITH DRY WEATHER STARTING SATURDAY AND PEAKING
MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS MAY BREAK 70 DEGREES IN SPOTS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS COLORADO IS PRODUCING SNOW IN
THE MOUNTAINS WITH RAIN BELOW ROUGHLY 6000 FEET MSL. MOST OF THE
PRECIPITATION IS FALLING NORTH OF I-70 AND WEST OF I-25. THIS AREA
OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD WITH THE WARM FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BY SUNRISE, MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY
WITH ONLY A FEW POCKETS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS. A CYCLONE
WILL BRING GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND MAINLY SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. ON THE
COLDER SIDE OF THE CYCLONE, THE NORTHERN PART OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
IS ONLY EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 40S TODAY.
THE DRYING WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UTAH
BRINGS SNOW BACK TO THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WAVES
TRAVELS EASTWARD, SNOW WITH RAIN BELOW 6000-6500 FEET MSL WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD ONTO THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. BEST LIFT WILL BE ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH
MOST OF THE RAIN AND SNOW FALLING NORTH OF I-70. RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO TONIGHT. A COLD
FRONT BACKS INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT BRINGING ENOUGH COLD AIR
TO CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO SNOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, BY
THIS TIME MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE WILL
BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOLER WITH
READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 240 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
ON FRIDAY MORNING, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DEPARTING NORTHEAST
COLORADO AND THE QG FORCING WILL WEAKEN AS A RESULT. MEANWHILE, A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST PLAINS WHICH
MAY HELP TO INCREASE LOW LEVEL FORCING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THIS LOW LEVEL FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SNOW SHOWERS TO FORM
MAINLY NORTH OF I-70 ACROSS OUR CWA. THE SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE WEAK AND WILL HAVE MINIMAL IMPACTS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING, A CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL BE RATHER FAR AWAY TO
PROVIDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF QG FORCING FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE LOW
LEVELS THAT WILL CREATE UPSLOPE FLOW OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND I-70
CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL FORM AS A RESULT. THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES. 2-5" OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY
IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS, AND SOUTH
PARK. POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET
ON FRIDAY EVENING. THE ADJACENT PLAINS MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW ESPECIALLY IN AREAS CLOSE TO THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS LIKE
ROXBOROUGH PARK. THE MAJORITY OF THE DENVER METRO SHOULD SEE
LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION AND TRAVEL IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINOR
OR NONE AT ALL.
THE CUT-OFF TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE PANHANDLE OF TEXAS BY LATE
SATURDAY AS RIDGING WILL BUILD IN OVER COLORADO. SATURDAY WILL
HAVE CLEARING SKIES AND TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY, THE AXIS OF THIS STRONG RIDGE WILL BE
OVER COLORADO PROVIDING SUBSIDENCE TO OUR FORECAST AREA. 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM 2 C ON SUNDAY TO 7 C ON MONDAY AND
HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY AND THEN THE
LOW 70S ON MONDAY.
BY TUESDAY, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE TOWARDS COLORADO. RECENT
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THIS TROUGH FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
THE BEST FORCING STAYING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO OR NEW MEXICO.
WHILE SOME LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS, THE PLAINS
SHOULD REMAIN MILD AND DRY. THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT HAS A CHANCE TO
BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO OUR AREA IS NEXT FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THE 14TH AND 15TH.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 456 AM MST THU MAR 6 2025
A CYCLONE HAS FORMED OVER THE DENVER AREA AND WILL BRING WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING TO DEN. LOW CLOUDS HAVE FORMED ACROSS
THE DENVER AREA, INCLUDING AT BJC AND APA WHERE CEILINGS ARE
AROUND 500 FEET. THESE LOW CLOUD ARE WEST OF DEN AND THERE IS A
GOOD CHANCE (60%) THESE LOW CLOUDS MAKE IT TO DEN WITH THE WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS. TOUGH TO FORECAST WHEN THE LOW CLOUDS DISSIPATE.
NOT MUCH AREAL EXTEND TO THE LOW CLOUDS SO AM THINKING AROUND
15Z, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS ON THE LOW SIDE.
EXPECT WEAK NORTH TO EAST WINDS TO PREVAIL AFTER 18Z AS THE
CYCLONE DRIFTS SOUTHEAST. A GUSTY WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH-
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND 23Z DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS TO
THE NORTHWEST OF DENVER. THE SHOWERS PUSH THROUGH 00-05Z FRIDAY
WITH CEILINGS FALLING TO 4000-6000 FEET.
AROUND 12Z FRIDAY, A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH BRINGING NORTHEAST
WINDS AND LOW CLOUDS. FOG (1/2SM OR LESS VISIBILITY) COULD
ACCOMPANY THE LOW CLOUDS FOR A COUPLE HOURS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE DAY FRIDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 PM MST
FRIDAY FOR COZ034.
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...DANIELSON
AVIATION...MEIER
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