203
FXUS65 KBOU 062334
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
434 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NEXT ROUND OF SNOW RETURNS THIS AFTERNOON TO THE MOUNTAINS AND
FOOTHILLS, WITH RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS LATE TONIGHT.
- FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO THE FOOTHILLS, BUT JUST LIGHT SNOW AND NO TRAVEL
IMPACTS TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- DRY WEATHER STARTS SATURDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO
MONDAY, WHEN WARMTH PEAKS AND HIGHS PUSH 70F ON THE PLAINS.
- WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
UPSTREAM RADAR IMAGERY IS STEADILY FILLING IN WITH SHOWERS AS AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. THIS WILL
TRANSLATE INTO INCREASING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON, WITH SPILLOVER OF RAIN SHOWERS INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE EJECTING EAST FROM THE MAIN TROUGH. THE BULK OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-76 CORRIDOR, BELOW
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING JET STREAK. MODEST
INSTABILITY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND ENHANCED FRONTOGENESIS IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATER TODAY COULD SUPPORT MORE CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WITH LOCALLY MODERATE SHOWERS BUT, IN GENERAL,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE WITH THIS FIRST
WAVE. A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS TRANSITIONING TO SNOW FOR THE PLAINS, HOWEVER LOWLAND
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIMITED OUTSIDE OF OUR FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS. IN THAT NORTHEAST CORNER, A FEW INCHES OF SNOW MAY
ACCUMULATE THROUGH SUNRISE FRIDAY.
THE PRIMARY TROUGH AXIS WILL TRAIL BEHIND ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN JUST
TO OUR WEST, WITH SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PUSHING EAST TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE STILL
INDICATES A PERIOD OF FAIRLY WEAK NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW
DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH WOULD
SUPPORT REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE FOOTHILLS (SOUTHERN
ESPECIALLY) AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT LOWER ELEVATIONS, ALSO
EXTENDING INTO OUR SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH PARK.
THESE AREAS MOSTLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-70 WILL ALSO SEE STEEPER LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES LATER IN THE DAY, PROVIDING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
COMPARATIVELY HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES AND BRINGING A FEW
INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION. ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR, ANY
PRECIPITATION WOULD REMAIN LIGHT, AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MARGINAL,
HOVERING IN THE MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 30'S. ADD TO THAT WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE BORDERLINE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES, AND ANYTHING MORE THAN A
MINOR SLUSHY ACCUMULATION SEEMS UNLIKELY (<15% CHANCE OF 1" FOR
DENVER) OUTSIDE OF LOCATIONS NEAR THE VERY BASE OF THE FOOTHILLS.
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL WILL TAPER OFF ACCORDINGLY INTO THE RURAL
PLAINS WITH THOSE AREAS DRYING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
LINGERING SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE FOCUSING IN AND NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE BY THE TIME WE ROLL INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
THAT'S WHERE THE BEST (BUT WEAK) UPSLOPE AND MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE
IS FOCUSED, ALONG WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES OF 6-7 C/KM. THERE IS
ALSO SOME WEAK QG SKIRTING TO OUR SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES
ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THE COMBINATION OF THOSE WEAK FORCING
MECHANISMS WOULD SUPPORT ANOTHER 1" TO LOCALLY AS MUCH AS 3" OF
SNOW IN THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS SOUTH OF I-70, WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS IN THE WESTERN DENVER SUBURBS AND
PALMER DIVIDE. MOST OF THE IMPACTS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 6,000 FEET WHERE EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL BE
JUST COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ROAD SNOW IN AREAS THAT SEE THE
ACCUMULATIONS.
SATURDAY WILL START AT LEAST A 3 DAY DRY PERIOD THAT LASTS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY. THAT WILL BE COURTESY OF A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL UNDERGO A STRONG WARMING TREND, STILL COOL
SATURDAY BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES PUSHING 70F OR A LITTLE WARMER FOR
THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY. THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY
IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD PER EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE ENSEMBLES.
THERE IS STILL RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY'S
WEAKENING TROUGH, THAT MOST SUPPORT WILL PASS SOUTH OF US. EVEN
IF THE TROUGH LIFTS FARTHER NORTH LIKE SOME SOLUTIONS, ONLY A FEW
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WOULD OCCUR WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND
DOWNSLOPE PREVAILING FOR THE PLAINS. THE RELATIVELY GOOD
AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUES THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK. THAT WOULD SUGGEST INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A RETURN OF
WARMER CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY, WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES
ALSO INCREASING. THUS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
ELEVATED TOWARD THAT TIME. WE'LL KEEP OUR EYE ON A POTENTIAL PI
DAY (3/14) STORM - SEEMS WE'VE HAD MORE THAN OUR SHARE OF
SIGNIFICANT STORMS AROUND THIS DATE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS.
WILL THIS YEAR BE ANY DIFFERENT?
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 PM MST THU MAR 6 2025
WINDS HAVE BECOME NORTHERLY LATE THIS AFRN AND WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. STILL COULD SEE A CHC OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE
02Z-06Z TIME PERIOD WITH CEILINGS DROPPING DOWN TO 5000 FT. WINDS
BY LATE EVENING WILL BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH LIGHT
SPEEDS. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LATE TONIGHT WITH
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT CEILINGS
DOWN TO 4000 FT OR SO BY 11Z. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW FOR
LIFR CEILINGS BETWEEN 13Z AND 17Z WITH VISBILITY OF 3-5SM IN FOG.
BY 17Z, CEILINGS WILL BE AROUND 2000 FT AND CONTINUE THRU THE AFTN
WITH NORTHEAST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A CHC OF LIGHT SNOW AFTER 21Z
MAINLY AT APA AND BJC.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ031-033-
034.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...RPK
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