479
FXUS65 KBOU 071146
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL BRING OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW TO THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS, BUT JUST
LIGHT SNOW AND NO TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
- DRY WEATHER STARTS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS PUSH 70F ON
THE PLAINS.
- WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 137 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEPARTING TROUGH OVER KANSAS AND
ANOTHER TROUGH OVER ARIZONA. IN-BETWEEN, THERE IS CURRENTLY DRY
AIR ALOFT MOVING OVER MUCH OF OUR CWA AND THE RADAR SHOWS
REFLECTIVITIES HAVE ALL BUT LEFT OUR FORECAST AREA. MOST OF THE
MORNING HOURS WILL BE DRY ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO THIS DRY
AIR AND POPS AS WELL AS QPF WERE LOWERED.
THE MAIN STORY OF THE MORNING WILL BE THE CHANCE OF FOG ACROSS THE
I-25 CORRIDOR. LOW CLOUDS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ALMOST ALL OF THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS MORNING WITH HIGH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY. KDEN CURRENTLY HAS A VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE AND IT
SEEMS THIS FOG IS LOCATED ON THE EAST AND NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE
DENVER METRO. THIS FOG MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE DENVER
METRO THIS MORNING AND FOG IS STILL IN THE FORECAST. THE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE
DAY AND THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS WERE
LOWERED A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH A HIGH OF 35 IN
DENVER.
BY THE AFTERNOON, SUNSHINE OVER THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS, SOUTH PARK,
AND SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS WILL COMBINE WITH COLD AIR ALOFT TO CREATE
VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES. THIS INSTABILITY, ALONG WITH SOME WEAK QG
FORCING FROM A TROUGH PASSING WELL TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CREATE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOWERS WILL PRIMARILY BE OVER THE
I-70 CORRIDOR MOUNTAINS, SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND SOUTH PARK. 2-5"
OF ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THERE AND TRAVEL WILL
BE IMPACTED ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE
STABLE ON THE PLAINS SO ANY SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT MAKE IT VERY FAR
EAST. THE CITIES OF GOLDEN, BOULDER, AND MORRISON MAY SEE AN INCH
OF SNOW BUT DOWNTOWN DENVER WILL LIKELY ONLY SEE A DUSTING. THIS
SNOW WILL COME TO AN END AROUND MIDDAY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN TONIGHT MAY
BE POCKETS OF PATCHY FOG THAT DEVELOP IN AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE
DENVER METRO.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 137 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO GENERATE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PART
OF OUR CWA SATURDAY MORNING REMAINS WELL TO OUR SOUTH AND WILL
MOVE EAST INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE BY SATURDAY EVENING. ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE ENDED BY SUNRISE SATURDAY. DEEP BUT
WEAK NORTHERLY FLOW WILL EXIST AT PRETTY MUCH ALL LEVELS,
RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. WARM ADVECTION
IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD WARM 700 MB TEMPS FROM
AROUND -9 DEGC EARLY SATURDAY TO -2 DEGC BY LATE SATURDAY. THUS A
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS, RIGHT ON SEASONAL AVERAGES. THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND FOOTHILLS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 30S. THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUES ON SUNDAY AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST, AND 700 MB TEMPS CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE 0DEGC. IT WILL
REMAIN DRY WITH WEAK WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS IT WILL FEEL PRETTY AWESOME
OUTSIDE WITH FULL SUN. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS SHOULD REACH THE
UPPER 40S.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE RIDGE MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER COLORADO, AND
BY MONDAY EVENING IT SHOULD BE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. NEEDLESS
TO SAY IT WILL BE DRY, WITH SUNNY SKIES WITH WARM TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED BOTH DAYS. MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH SOME
WARMING VIA DOWNSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE, WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
VERY CLOSE TO IF NOT EXCEED 70 ACROSS THE PLAINS AND I-25
CORRIDOR, AND UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA OTHER THAN NORTH AND SOUTH
PARKS, WHERE IT WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH. SOMETIME
EARLY ON TUESDAY A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WORKS IN FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS, FORCED BY A 1018 MB HIGH OVER NORTH DAKOTA (TOLD
YOU IT WAS WEAK). SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN, AND COMBINED WITH THE
COOLER ARE BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGHS WILL BE 4-8 DEGREES COOLER ON
TUESDAY.
A FAST MOVING TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BUT THE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH REMAINS TOO FAR
SOUTH OF US TO GENERATE MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA.
ENSEMBLE OUTPUT HAS A FEW MEMBERS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIP ACROSS
ALONG THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN RANGES (5 OUT OF 50 MEMBERS), AND EVEN
A FEW THAT SPREAD VERY LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE PLAINS LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE NBM SEEMS A LITTLE HEAVY HANDED GIVEN
HOW FEW MEMBERS OF THE EC AND GEFS GENERATE MEASURABLE PRECIP, BUT
WE ONLY KNOCKED POPS BACK FROM 30-40 TO 10-15 PERCENT, AND 10
PERCENT OR LESS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
WE ARE WATCHING THE NEXT CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD, POSSIBLY
SIGNIFICANT PRECIP, TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THURSDAY/FRIDAY, SWING EAST THE FOUR CORNERS
THEN KICK NORTHEAST OUT INTO KANSAS, INTERACT WITH GULF MOISTURE
AT THAT POINT, AND RAPIDLY DEEPEN. TIMING AND DETAILS ON ANY OF
THIS ARE FUTILE, BUT IF YOU ARE LOOKING FOR A COLORADO MID-MARCH
SNOWSTORM THERE IS SOME HOPE. ALL ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND NEARLY
EVERY ONE OF THEIR MEMBERS HAVE PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA,
WITH DECENT AMOUNTS IN THE MOUNTAINS. SO FAR THE TROUGH IS MOVING
TOO FAST ACROSS OUR AREA TO GET TOO EXCITED, BUT OBVIOUSLY A LOT
CAN AND WILL CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 428 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KDEN HAS BEEN IN AND OUT OF FOG THIS MORNING WITH VISIBILITY
REACHING AS LOW AS 1/4 SM AT TIMES. THIS CHANCE FOR FOG WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AROUND 16Z BEFORE VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS SHOULD
IMPROVE SLIGHTLY DUE TO INCREASING WINDS AND SLIGHT DAYTIME
HEATING. LOW CEILINGS WILL BE OVER THE TERMINALS ALL DAY TODAY AND
WELL INTO THE NIGHT. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 700-2,000 FOOT
RANGE TODAY. THIS AFTERNOON, SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS AND WILL DRIFT EASTWARD. DUE TO STABLE
CONDITIONS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS, THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT MOVE
VERY FAR EAST ALTHOUGH THEY MAY IMPACT APA AND BJC. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VISIBILITY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS. CEILINGS
WILL CLEAR OUT TONIGHT AROUND 02-05Z. THE REST OF THE NIGHT
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY WILL HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ031-
033-034.
SHORT TERM...DANIELSON
LONG TERM...SCHLATTER
AVIATION...DANIELSON
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