908
FXUS65 KBOU 072158
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
258 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THIS
EVENING AND END OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED TRAVEL IMPACTS CONTINUE
MAINLY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- DRY WEATHER STARTS SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS PUSH 70F ON
THE PLAINS.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH PARK ON MONDAY.
- WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MAY BECOME A CONCERN WEDNESDAY
TO THURSDAY BEFORE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE NEXT WEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
SATELLITE SHOWS BUBBLING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THAT'S WHERE INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED
WITH LAPSES RATES NEAR 7 C/KM. MEANWHILE, ON THE PLAINS IT WAS
MUCH MORE STABLE WITH SHALLOW COLD AIR AND STRATUS IN PLACE.
SYNOPTIC SUPPORT IS RATHER WEAK, SO IT WILL BE HARD TO PUSH ANY OF
THE HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AT LEAST WE HAVE
WEAK UPSLOPE, SO THEY WON'T TOTALLY DIE AND THUS EXPECT AT LEAST
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO PUSH ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. THE
HIGHEST ODDS FOR ANY ACCUMULATION WOULD BE WEST OF I-25 AND CLOSER
TO THE FOOTHILLS, WITH AN INCH OR SO POSSIBLE IN THE FAR
WEST/SOUTH SUBURBS (AND 1-3" IN THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS SOUTH
OF I-70). SINCE TEMPERATURES WERE COLDER TODAY AND WE'LL BE
COLDER DURING THE SNOW, SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS AND SLICK ROADS WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT DO SEE THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
STILL, MOST IMPACTS WOULD BE ABOVE 6,000 FEET, BUT SOME SLICK
SPOTS ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN DENVER SUBURBS
THIS EVENING.
THERE IS ALSO UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS.
WHILE THE AIRMASS STABILIZES THIS EVENING, WE'LL REMAIN IN A WEAK
UPSLOPE REGIME AND ANOTHER WAVE OF WEAK FORCING (ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO) CLIPS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE, LOW CLOUDS AND A LITTLE
LIGHT SNOW COULD STICK AROUND GENERALLY SOUTHWEST OF DENVER TOWARD
MIDNIGHT AND A LITTLE AFTER. WE'VE SLOWED DOWN THE TOTAL
DISSIPATION OF SNOW SHOWERS BUT STILL THINKING THEY'LL BE EXITING
THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA BEFORE DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, A SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM WILL CONTINUE FOR
FAR SOUTHERN COLORADO.
FOR SATURDAY, WE'LL SEE SUNSHINE DOMINATE NORTHEAST AND NORTH
CENTRAL COLORADO, BUT RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE
JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 258 PM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SETTLES IN OUR AREA STARTING SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE UP TO THE 60S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS
AND 30S TO 40S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST (AND
DRIEST) DAY WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING UP TO THE LOWER 70S DUE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS. THE HIGHEST
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD FOR MARCH 10 IS 79 DEGREES SET IN 1989, BUT
DON'T BELIEVE WE WILL BREAK THAT RECORD ON MONDAY. THE CONCERN
WILL BE ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN
SOUTH PARK DUE TO RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15% AND WIND
GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER, IF THE SNOW PACK DOES
NOT MELT BEFORE MONDAY, CONDITIONS WOULD NOT BE MET. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY BUT STILL ABOUT 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A HIGH PRESSURE IN THE DAKOTAS WILL PUSH A
WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA, BRINGING BREEZY NORTHERLY WIND
GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH IN THE PLAINS. TUESDAY NIGHT, AN UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH NEW MEXICO, BRINGING A SMALL
CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL NOT AFFECT THE
PLAINS, AS NBM HAS DECREASED POPS.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE PLAINS. FOR WEDNESDAY, TIGHTENING OF
PRESSURE GRADIENTS DUE TO THE SYSTEM IN NEW MEXICO WILL BRING BREEZY
WINDS TO THE PLAINS. WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING BELOW
20%, CAN'T RULE OUT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER, ESPECIALLY FOR
GRASSLANDS. ON THURSDAY, THERE WILL BE WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. THIS COMBINED
WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS THESE WINDS COULD RAPIDLY SPREAD
FIRE.
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, ENSEMBLE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A
STRONG PACIFIC TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING
WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION TO THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
GEFS HAS 25 OF THEIR 30 MEMBERS INDICATING SNOW FOR DENVER, WITH
ECMWF AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE IN AGREEMENT OF PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER, AS OF RIGHT NOW, TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM FOR ONLY SNOW
TO FALL AND THIS MAY BE A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR THE PLAINS.
IN ADDITION, THIS SYSTEM WILL BE FAST MOVING, SO PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS MAY BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE THAN THEY WOULD BE IF THE SYSTEM
WOULD SLOW DOWN. AS THIS IS FAR OUT INTO THE FUTURE, THIS COULD
CHANGE AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY AND CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MST FRI MAR 7 2025
LOW CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY LIFTING, BUT SOME FLURRIES REMAIN. WE THINK
THE MAJORITY OF THOSE FLURRIES WILL TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS
THAT MOSTLY FOCUS IN/NEAR THE FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. DUE TO STABLE CONDITIONS OVER LOWER ELEVATIONS, THESE
SNOW SHOWERS WILL NOT MOVE VERY FAR EAST ALTHOUGH THEY SHOULD
REACH KAPA AND KBJC, WITH A LOWER THREAT AT KDEN. BRIEF PERIODS
OF VISIBILITY IN THE 2-3SM RANGE IS POSSIBLE UNDER THESE SHOWERS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT TREND TO LATER DEPARTURE OF THE SHOWERS
(03Z-05Z), AND CEILINGS (08Z-10Z). LIGHT WINDS AND VFR WILL
PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ033-
034.
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...IDEKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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