379
FXUS65 KBOU 081141
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
441 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER STARTS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS PUSH 70F ON
THE PLAINS.
- LOCALIZED ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH PARK ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS MID/LATE WEEK TOO.
- WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT, BUT QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A VARIETY OF IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
WATER VAPOR SHOWS A CUT-OFF TROUGH OVER NEW MEXICO THAT IS SPREADING
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA. THIS TROUGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY EASTWARD AND WILL NOT IMPACT OUR FORECAST AREA
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. OUR FORECAST AREA WILL INSTEAD BE UNDER
RIDGING ALOFT AND SUBSIDENT FLOW. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
BUT WITH RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT, HIGHS WILL STAY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. WINDS WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE
FOR MOST OF THE AREA TODAY ALTHOUGH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH COULD OCCUR
NEAR LIMON.
TONIGHT, LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH CLEAR SKIES. THERE ARE NO
WEATHER CONCERNS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 357 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
WE SHOULD END THE WEEKEND WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE AREA, AS A RIDGE AXIS MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION.
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
PLAINS, WITH SOME STATISTICAL GUIDANCE HINTING AT UPPER 60S FOR
THE DENVER METRO. SUNNY SKIES SHOULD CONTINUE WITH CROSS SECTIONS
SHOWING LITTLE TO NO MOISTURE ALOFT.
WARM WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF
NEXT WEEK, AS A BROAD RIDGE EVENTUALLY FLATTENS AND IS REPLACED BY
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK,
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE A
MODEST INCREASE IN THE MID-LEVEL FLOW, WHICH COULD CREATE SOME
ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTH PARK AND ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF OUR CWA.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A LITTLE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, AS A
RESULT OF SOME MODEST COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MID/HIGH CLOUD COVER. THERE'S STILL A GOOD SIGNAL FOR TEMPERATURES
TO REACH THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE SURFACE AIRMASS SHOULD
REMAIN QUITE DRY, AND THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN AND TURN MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY AS A BROAD TROUGH AXIS APPROACHES THE PACIFIC COAST
ON THURSDAY. THERE'S A BIT MORE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE DURING THIS
PERIOD, THOUGH TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.
MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, WITH AN
INCREASE IN WINDS ALSO ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS.
THAT TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY RACE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.
AND EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS BY FRIDAY EVENING, WHERE
IT THEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS. THERE'S AT LEAST A GOOD SIGNAL FOR A
QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA, ALONG WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDS, BUT AT THIS POINT THE TIMING DOESN'T LOOK TERRIBLY
FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD IMPACTS HERE. WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH
GUIDANCE CLOSELY, AS THIS APPEARS TO BE ONE OF THE ONLY CHANCES
FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 431 AM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH DURING THE DAY TODAY. DRAINAGE WINDS WILL AGAIN DEVELOP
TONIGHT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELSON
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...DANIELSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page