466
FXUS65 KBOU 090605
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1105 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO
MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS PUSH 70F ON THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTH PARK ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS MID/LATE WEEK TOO.
- WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT, BUT QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM LATE NEXT WEEK, WITH A VARIETY OF IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 721 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
QUIET NIGHT, WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR A BIT MORE CIRRUS.
FORECAST LOWS LOOK ABOUT RIGHT.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND WARM ADVECTION WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
SUNDAY. WE'LL STILL SEE NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT, BUT
SUNDAY'S HIGHS WILL WARM TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH NEARLY
FULL SUNSHINE (ONLY A FEW CIRRUS). WE EXPECT MID 60S FOR HIGHS
OVER MOST OF THE PLAINS IN SPRING-LIKE FASHION, WITH 50S MOST OF
THE FOOTHILLS, AND UPPER 30S AND 40S MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
RELATIVELY LIGHT AS WELL UNDER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 233 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
MOST OF THE REGION WILL SEE WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. MONDAY WILL BE OUR WARMEST (AND DRIEST) DAY DUE TO A MORE
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT FROM A FLATTENED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. WESTERLY
DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL AID IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REACH LOWER 70S FOR MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS. IT WILL
BE BREEZY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COLORADO/WYOMING BORDER. THIS, COMBINED WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 15% WILL CREATE LOCALIZED ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. IN ADDITION, THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW
WIND GUSTS IN THE FRONT RANGE TO GET UP TO 45 MPH. ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SOUTH PARK AS
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES COULD GET BELOW 15%. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
IS POSSIBLE LATER IF NEW GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR STRONG WINDS
THERE.
TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN MONDAY AS A HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE DAKOTAS PUSHES A WEAK COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL GET UP TO THE MID 60S FOR THE PLAINS (TOLD YOU IT WAS WEAK!)
AND NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST UP TO 25 MPH. THERE COULD BE LOCALIZED
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTH PARK AGAIN, AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP AROUND 15%.
THE MAIN CONCERN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IS LOCALIZED ELEVATED
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE/FOOTHILLS AND THE
PLAINS AS THE DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES TO STAY IN COLORADO. TIGHTENING
OF PRESSURE GRADIENTS AHEAD OF A SYSTEM WILL CAUSE BREEZY CONDITIONS
IN THE AREA, ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHERE 25+ MPH WINDS GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED DURING THIS WEEK.
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO FAVOR A STRONG, FAST MOVING
SYSTEM TRAVERSING THE AREA ON FRIDAY. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS
FAVORED TO OCCUR, WITH SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS AND RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR
THE PLAINS. IT IS STILL UNCERTAIN IF THE PLAINS WILL BE DOMINATED
BY RAIN, OR IF TEMPERATURES COULD GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW. IF WE DO
GET COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW, THERE IS A 30% CHANCE OF 3" OR GREATER FOR
THE PLAINS. WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT IN IS THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A 45% CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60
MPH. THE SNOW COMBINED WITH THE VERY STRONG WINDS COULD PRODUCE
WHITE OUT CONDITIONS AND IMPACT TRAVEL. WHAT WE ARE CONFIDENT IN
IS THAT WINDS WILL BE STRONGER BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A 45%
CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS GREATER THAN 60 MPH. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS EVENT.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1049 PM MST SAT MAR 8 2025
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE DRAINAGE TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS DURING THE DAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
SHORT TERM...BARJENBRUCH
LONG TERM...IDEKER
AVIATION...DANIELSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page