752
FXUS65 KBOU 091743
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1143 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH THURSDAY. SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND INTO
MONDAY, WHEN HIGHS PUSH 70F ON THE PLAINS.
- ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FOR
SOUTH PARK AND PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS ON MONDAY. CHANCES FOR
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS MID/LATE WEEK
TOO.
- STILL WATCHING THE POTENTIAL FOR A POTENT, QUICK MOVING STORM
SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK, WITH A VARIETY OF IMPACTS POSSIBLE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
SPRING-LIKE WARMTH AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE IS ON TRACK FOR TODAY.
WILL ADDRESS POTENTIAL FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS FOR PARK COUNTY AND
THE NORTHERN BORDER AREA WITH THIS AFTERNOON'S PACKAGE. LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE IS TRENDING DRIER, WITH WINDS RIGHT NEAR CRITICAL
THRESHOLDS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST AS A RIDGE ALOFT IS OVER THE AREA. THE SUBSIDENT FLOW AND DRY
AIR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY IN OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL PRODUCE DOWNSLOPE FLOW
WARMING 700 MB TEMPERATURES TO +2-3 C. GIVEN THE AMPLE SUNSHINE,
HIGHS WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND PLAINS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A COUPLE OF 70 DEGREE READINGS. WITH
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE, WINDS WILL BE
VERY LIGHT.
TONIGHT WILL BE QUITE MILD AS WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MID 30S IN THE DENVER METRO.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
MOST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL BE WARM AND DRY, WITH ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (SEE THE FIRE SECTION BELOW).
MONDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK, AS FLAT RIDGING
REMAINS OVER THE AREA AND DOWNSLOPE FLOW INCREASES A BIT.
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED HIGH CLOUD COVER.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER, THOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL END UP IN THE 60S FOR
MOST OF THE PLAINS. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW MORE MOISTURE ALOFT AND
WE'LL LIKELY END UP WITH A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER, BUT QUIET
WEATHER WILL PERSIST.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WELL SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, BUT THIS SHOULD BE A PRETTY DRY
TROUGH WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL WEATHER.
A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM SHOULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY, AS A RATHER
STRONG SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST WITH THIS SYSTEM, WITH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC RUN (ALONG
WITH MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS) SETTING ALL-TIME SLP RECORDS ACROSS
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KS. THIS IS BROADLY SUPPORTED BY
OTHER GUIDANCE, WITH NAEFS/ECMWF SLP AND HEIGHT ANOMALIES OUTSIDE
OF THE CFSR CLIMATOLOGY. TRANSLATING THAT TO IMPACTS HERE IS A
LITTLE MORE CHALLENGING. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO ORGANIZE A LITTLE
TOO FAR EAST FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUT FORECAST
AREA, THOUGH THERE ARE A HANDFUL OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TONIGHT THAT
PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND/OR WIND IN OUR FORECAST AREA. OVERALL
PROBABILITIES OF MEANINGFUL SNOW IN THE DENVER METRO IS FAIRLY LOW
(~20%), WITH BETTER CHANCES OF SNOW AND STRONGER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. WE'LL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE POTENTIAL THIS
WEEK!
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1143 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
VFR WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGH CIRRUS. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO VRB OR LIGHT EASTERLY BY 21Z, ONLY TO
RETURN TO NORMAL SOUTH/SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS AROUND 8-12 KTS BY
03Z. THOSE WINDS SHOULD START TO TREND MORE WESTERLY BY 16-17Z
MONDAY, WITH POTENTIAL GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BY 18Z AT KBJC, AND
CLOSER TO 20Z AT KDEN AND KAPA. GIVEN LACK OF FORCING, APPEARS THE
GUSTIER WEST WINDS MAY END UP IN CHANNELS, WITH NOT ALL LOCATIONS
SEEING THEM MONDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 329 AM MDT SUN MAR 9 2025
THE FIRST STRETCH OF ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
APPEARS LIKELY THIS WEEK. MONDAY WILL BE WARM AND VERY DRY ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 10-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY DRY, WITH FORECAST
MINIMUM RH NEAR 10% ACROSS SOUTH PARK, THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS, AND
THE PLAINS. MOST GUIDANCE HAS MAXIMUM BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS NEAR
25-30KT... WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO SOME 30-35 MPH GUSTS ACROSS SOUTH
PARK, AND ALONG THE CO/WY/NE BORDERS WHERE 700-500MB WINDS ARE
STRONGEST. MAIN QUESTION IS WHAT FUELS ARE LIKE. SATELLITE SHOWED
SNOW COVER ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH PARK INTO THE SOUTHERN
FOOTHILLS/PALMER DIVIDE, AND RAWS ERCS ARE FAIRLY LOW. MOST
PRECIPITATION/SOIL MOISTURE PRODUCTS PAINT A MIXED PICTURE ACROSS
THE CWA, WITH DRIER CONDITIONS JUST NORTH OF OUR CWA. WILL LET THE
DAY SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL ALSO FEATURE WIDESPREAD WARM/DRY
CONDITIONS, THOUGH WINDS LOOK A LITTLE WEAKER ALONG WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN RH. FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DON'T APPEAR LIKELY IN
THIS PERIOD, THOUGH AT LEAST LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
SHORT TERM...DANIELSON
LONG TERM...HIRIS
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...HIRIS
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