722
FXUS65 KBOU 131121
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
521 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- NOT AS WARM TODAY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. MOSTLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES COOL MORE FOR MONDAY.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES TODAY AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT, STAYING WELL NORTH
OF COLORADO. THE FIRST OF TWO COLD FRONTS WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. WINDS TURN NORTH TO NORTHEAST BEHIND IT AND
USHERS IN SOME COOLER AIR. EVEN WITH A COOL DOWN TODAY, HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE MID 60S TO
LOWER 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. GUSTY WEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS, HIGHER FOOTHILLS, AND MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS WHERE GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES FALL INTO THE LOWER TEENS AS WELL IN SOUTH PARK, SO A
RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED.
A 110 KNOT JET WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. IT IS
CURRENTLY PRODUCING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS UTAH AND INTO WYOMING.
THIS LIFT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST TODAY. LAPSE RATES ARE
FAIRLY STEEP (7-9C/KM) UP TO 300MB. THIS WILL HELP LEAD TO SLIGHT
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ALSO SHOW SBCAPE UP
TO 300 J/KG. LASTLY, A SECOND AND STRONGER SURGE PUSHES SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEHIND THE SECOND FRONT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET WILL
PROVIDE LIFT AND BRING BANDED SHOWERS. A SECOND JET WITH THE LEFT
EXIT REGION WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL LIFT TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LIGHT, LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.
HOWEVER WITH BANDED PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, LOCALLY UP TO A HALF
INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALSO UNDER THIS HEAVIER RAIN, A MIX OR
BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE URBAN
CORRIDOR AND PLAINS. OTHER THAN A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY
SURFACES, NO IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE SNOW OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS COULD SEE 2 TO 6
INCHES OF SNOW, PRODUCING SNOWY/SLUSHY ROADS WHERE THE HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL OCCURS.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
MONDAY WILL BE COOLER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AS ENSEMBLE MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT OF TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S FOR THE PLAINS.
THERE'S A VERY LOW CHANCE (20%) OF LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ON THE
BACK-END OF THE EXITING SYSTEM, BUT THAT WILL BE LIMITED TO
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE AND PALMER DIVIDE. A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, RESULTING IN DECREASING NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AT THE SURFACE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION WOULD BE THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS, WHICH COULD
SEE NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH DUE TO TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENTS FROM THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TRAVELING SOUTH TO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH BACK UP TO THE 70S OVER THE
PLAINS AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRAVEL
SOUTHEAST, RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN OUR REGION BRINGING IN
WARMER TEMPERATURES. WIND GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS WITH BRIEF LOCALIZED 30 MPH GUSTS. GUIDANCE HAS
COME A BIT MORE IN AGREEMENT OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRAVERSING SOUTHERN COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT PRECIPITATION
SPILLING ONTO THE PALMER DIVIDE AND ADJACENT PLAINS (20% CHANCE).
ENSEMBLE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WARMING TREND THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH THE PLAINS REACHING UP TO THE 70S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER, THE NBM HAS BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF
GUIDANCE, SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY. IN ADDITION,
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN
THE SOUTHWEST MIDWEEK, BUT THERE IS STILL A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVOLVES IN TERMS OF
TRACK AND TIMING. WITH INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM, THERE COULD BE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION STARTING AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY.
THE LOW PRESSURE SHOULD ARRIVE SOMETIME BY THE END OF WEEK, WITH A
COLD FRONT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FRIDAY'S HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE A LARGE SPREAD, RANGING FROM LOWER 40S TO HIGH
50S, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT. BEHIND THE FRONT,
MORE MOUNTAIN SNOW AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE PLAINS IS
EXPECTED. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM AS IT UNFOLDS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 521 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. A WEAK COLD RECENTLY BROUGHT
A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST. EASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH MID AFTERNOON ~21Z SUNDAY. A STRONGER NORTHEAST
PUSH WITH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS MOVES THROUGH THE DENVER AREA 21Z TO
23Z SUNDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES BEHIND THIS SECOND STRONGER PUSH
WITH RAIN SHOWERS FORMING 21-23Z SUNDAY. NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED AFTER 00Z MONDAY. RAIN SHOWERS COULD CHANGE TO SNOW UNDER
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS AFTER 06Z MONDAY WITH CEILINGS BELOW 3000
FEET. NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON PAVED SURFACES, THOUGH
A LIGHT ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
LOCALIZED AREAS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
EACH AFTERNOON THIS WEEK DUE TO A DRY AIR MASS ENTERING THE REGION
AND GUSTY WINDS. HOWEVER, EXPECTED PRECIPITATION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING COULD REDUCE THE CONCERN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR COZ214.
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...IDEKER
AVIATION...MEIER
FIRE WEATHER...IDEKER
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