008
FXUS65 KBOU 140818
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
218 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SNOW SHOWERS ENDING EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN ON TRACK TO END THE WEEK, WITH POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW AND WIDESPREAD LOWER ELEVATION PRECIPITATION.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
LEFT EXIT REGION OF A JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO BRING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SUNRISE. GIVE LATEST RADAR TRENDS, BEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK IS NORTH OF I-70. AS TEMPERATURES
COOL BETWEEN NOW AND SUNRISE, MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME
SNOW. THE BRIEF DURATION OF HEAVIER SNOW AND WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT IN MINOR ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREAS
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH NO IMPACTS EXPECTED. A FEW INCHES
OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 20S AND A FEW OF THE ROADWAYS MAY BECOME
SNOW AND/OR SLUSH COVERED.
IT IS MUCH DRIER JUST TO THE NORTH ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING AND
EXTREME NORTHERN COLORADO. LIFT FROM THE JET STREAK IS EXPECTED TO
EXIT THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE (6-7AM), BRINGING THE SHOWERS TO AN
END. THIS DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH FILTERS INTO THE AREA THIS
MORNING BRINGING MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES BY NOON. THE CLEAR
SKIES THEN PERSIST THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT. IT WILL BE
COOLER TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH MID TO UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WITH 30S ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT MON APR 14 2025
ON TUESDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM BACK UP TO THE 70S OVER THE
PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE, A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN OUR AREA WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEAST,
RESULTING IN SOUTHERLY WINDS BRINGING IN WARMER TEMPERATURES. DUE TO
TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENTS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS, WIND GUSTS UP TO
20-30 MPH WITH BRIEF ISOLATED 40 MPH GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS.
GUIDANCE HAS INDICATED A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE PASSING OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO SOMETIME TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIGHT SHOWERS, WITH SNOW ABOVE 10,000 FT., ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS. THERE
IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) THAT SHOWERS COULD SPILL ONTO THE PLAINS,
MOST LIKELY ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE BY TUESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY BE TOO WARM FOR ANY SNOW TO FALL.
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD FLATTEN BY WEDNESDAY, RESULTING IN
RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH CROSS BARRIER FLOW UP TO
30 KTS, IT WILL BE BREEZY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL ALSO CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE PLAINS, AND AID IN COMPRESSIONAL HEATING. 700-MB
TEMPERATURES OF 5-8 DEGREES C WILL SUPPORT SURFACE HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 70S. AS A DRY AIR MASS SETTLES IN THE PLAINS, THERE COULD BE
WIDESPREAD RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER, WITH
WINDS EXPECTED TO ONLY GUST UP TO 20 MPH AND WITH RECENT
PRECIPITATION, ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VERY
LOCALIZED.
AFTER THAT, AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. ENSEMBLES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE SOUTHWEST AND
PROGRESSING TO COLORADO BY THE END OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER, THERE ARE
MANY INCONSISTENCIES BETWEEN ENSEMBLE RUNS AND DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS IN TERMS OF THE TRACK AND TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SHOULD BRING
SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE HIGH
COUNTRY. ADDITIONALLY, THERE IS AGREEMENT WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
THAT A LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OFF THE ROCKIES WITH A COLD FRONT
BRINGING IN COLDER TEMPERATURES AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE TIMING OF THIS SYSTEM, THERE IS A LARGE
SPREAD OF HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH NBM IS
TRENDING TOWARDS THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE. MOST LIKELY WILL CHANGE
HIGH TEMPERATURES AS MODELS GET A BETTER GRASP ON THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 PM MDT SUN APR 13 2025
NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ARE MOVING IN AND FORMING ACROSS THE DENVER
AREA. THESE SHOWERS WILL START OFF AS RAIN, BUT AS THE AIRMASS
COOLS WE'LL SEE A CHANGE TO SNOW AROUND 08Z. DUE TO WARM PAVEMENT
TEMPERATURES AND AIR TEMPERATURES STAYING NEAR THE FREEZING POINT,
ONLY A LIGHT ACCUMULATION ON GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES. VERY
DRY AIR IS SITTING TO THE NORTH OVER WYOMING AND MOVES IN MONDAY
MORNING. THE SNOW ENDS 11-13Z, WITH LOWER CLOUDS (4000-6000 FEET)
LINGERING. SKIES THEN CLEAR FOR THE REST OF MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
AS FAR AS WINDS GO, NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN
CLOCKWISE THROUGH THE NIGHT, BECOMING EASTERLY AROUND 12Z AND
SOUTHEASTERLY ~15Z. AFTER A PERIOD OF LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS, THE
WINDS SLOWLY TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST 20-21Z AT SPEEDS LESS THAN
15 KNOTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...MEIER
LONG TERM...IDEKER
AVIATION...MEIER
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