396
FXUS65 KBOU 151633
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1033 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE CWA.
- ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN STARTING THURSDAY AFTERNOON CONTINUING
WELL INTO THE WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1004 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS CLEAR SKIES OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO
WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS PUSHING INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER THIS
MORNING. TEMPERATURES ARE CLIMBING OUT OF THE 40S FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA, WITH SOME 20S AND 30S STILL OBSERVED AT OUR HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS. THESE CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING, REACHING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH-BASED SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AS DISCUSSED BELOW.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 247 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WARM UP NICELY TODAY WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL TO START THE DAY. MID
AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS MOVE IN
FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND CONVECTIVE CLOUDS FORM. THERE
LOOKS TO BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED HIGH- BASED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. ANY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT. GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THE
SHOWERS WILL END THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS STABILIZES. CLOUDS
SLOWLY DECREASE WITH SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
MODELS SHOW FLAT UPPER RIDGING WITH MODERATELY STRONG ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT ON WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE JET LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
ARE PROGGED IN THE 90 TO 110 KNOT RANGE FOR THE FORECAST AREA.
THE QG OMEGA FIELDS SHOW VERY WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER THE
CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, A BETTER SIGNAL
FOR UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY IS INDICTED, CONTINUING INTO THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELDS SHOW
FAIRLY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE DECENT DOWNSLOPING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES EARLY,
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE FLOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
MODELS DO NOT AGREE VERY WELL WITH TIMING OF THIS FEATURE. CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW THE UPSLOPE DEPTH TO BE UP TO AROUND 700 MB BY THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
FOR MOISTURE, MODEL CROSS SECTIONS HAVE SOME IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IT THEN LOOKS PRETTY DRY
UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, MOISTURE IS
PRETTY DEEP OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
UPSLOPE OVER THE PLAINS. FOR POPS, WILL GO WITH THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN CWA LATE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH THE MOISTURE, CAPE, QPF AND TEMPERATURES FIELDS IN
MIND. THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT'S POPS WILL BE GREATER WITH
DEEPER MOISTURE, A COLD FRONT AND UPSLOPE ALONG WITH BETTER
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY. IT LOOKS COLD ENOUGH OVER THE PLAINS TO SEE
SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT NOT TOO MUCH MAY ACCUMULATE ON THE WARM
GROUND. FOR TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY'S HIGHS ARE 3-4 C WARM THAN
TODAY'S, WITH THE PLAINS GETTING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S.
THURSDAY'S HIGHS ARE A BIT TRICKY DEPENDING ON WHEN THE COLD FRONT
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA, WITH READINGS 3-7 C COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY'S.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY, MODELS HAVE DECREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CWA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MOST
MODELS HAVE AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
BASIN ON FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AROUND
18Z SATURDAY. THE CLOSED CIRCULATION IS PROGGED SOUTH OF COLORADO
THE REST OF SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE CWA INTO SUNDAY. THERE IS SHORT WAVE UPPER RIDGING AFTER
THAT, WITH WEAK UPPER TROUGHING LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THE
PATTERN FAVORS AND UNSETTLE PERIOD OF WEATHER WITH PRECIPITATION A
GOOD BET FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FRIDAY WELL INTO SATURDAY, LINGERING
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MOUNTAINS. OF NOTE, CROSS SECTIONS ON MOST
OF THE MODELS DO NOT HAVE FAVORABLE OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT IN THE
ALPINE AREAS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER, SNOW AMOUNTS COULD
STILL BE GREAT ENOUGH IN THE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING
TO WARRANT SOME HIGHLIGHTS. SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY LOOK DRY
WITH SOME LATE DAY ALPINE SHOWERS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 529 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF DENVER. GUSTY OUTFLOWS WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FROM THE SHOWERS WITH THE BEST CHANCE AT SEEING OUTFLOW
WINDS/SHOWERS AT APA. IF THESE OUTFLOW WINDS OCCUR, WOULD EXPECT A
WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AROUND OR A LITTLE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY.
WIND DIRECTION WILL BE CHALLENGING TO FORECAST TODAY, BUT SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN 15 KNOTS AND MOST OF THE TIME LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN WEST TO
NORTHWEST 14-16Z. LIGHT NORTH OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
16-20Z BEFORE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS DEVELOP. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY DUE TO POSSIBLE OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE SHOWERS TO THE SOUTH OF DENVER.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS FOR A FEW HOURS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. THERE WILL BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR LOW
HUMIDITIES LEVELS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS. TIMING OF A COLDER
AIRMASS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY WILL AFFECT THE FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BONNER
SHORT TERM......MEIER
LONG TERM.......RJK
AVIATION........MEIER
FIRE WEATHER....RJK
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