712
FXUS65 KBOU 161023
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
423 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THURSDAY.
- CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY AND FAIRLY STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
- THE NEXT STORM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WELL INTO SATURDAY. IT WILL BE
ALL SNOW BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
- MUCH COLDER FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 308 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OF COLORADO TODAY WITH WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILING OVER THE STATE. WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING AN AREA OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA THAT IS BEING PRODUCED BY
A JET STREAK. THIS JET STREAK TRAVELS NORTHEAST AND MOVES OVER
COLORADO LATER TODAY. NORTHERN COLORADO WILL BE UNDER THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE JET WHICH WILL HELP PRODUCE SHOWERS. LOWER
AIRMASS STAYS DRIVE WITH THE BEST MOISTURE AT THE MID AND UPPER
LEVEL. IT ALSO BECOMES SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPE
UP TO 300 J/KG. MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
NORTH OF I-70. ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT, BUT
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAIN TIME FRAME
FOR THE SHOWERS WILL BE 4-8PM. THE AIR WARMS A LITTLE MORE TODAY
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THE SHOWERS DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE AIRMASS
STABILIZES AND THE JET STREAK LIFTS NORTH OF COLORADO. SKIES WILL
BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH SOME WIND, BUT NOTHING
STRONG. THIS WILL LEAD TO MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
THE MAIN DIFFERENCE FROM WHAT I SAW LAST NIGHT IS THAT FRIDAY
LOOKS COOLER AND A BIT WETTER FROM THE DIVIDE EASTWARD, INCLUDING
OVER THE PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS. THE LATE DAY THURSDAY COLD FRONT
MAY BE A TAD SLOWER GETTING INTO THE CWA ACCORDING TO MODEL
CONSENSUS. CROSS SECTIONS INDICATE THE UPSLOPE IS DEEPER AND THE
MOISTURE IS AS WELL ON THE CURRENT 00Z MODELS COMPARED TO LAST
NIGHT'S RUNS.
MODELS HAVE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY AND
MUCH OF THURSDAY NIGHT. IT DECREASES SOME ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT BUT REMAINS SOUTHWESTERLY. BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING, MODELS
HAVE A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN AND AROUND THE 4 CORNERS WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS JUST GETTING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA. THE GFS IS
A BIT QUICKER WITH THE UPPER CIRCULATION. THE QG OMEGA FIELDS
HAVE UPWARD VERTICAL VELOCITY OVER THE CWA FROM THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT STAYS IN
PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT; EVEN INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ON SOME MODELS. THE BRUNT OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE ALL
SNOW, EVEN FOR THE PLAINS AFTER 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT. WILL HAVE
LIKELY OR BETTER POPS IN FOR MUCH OF THE CWA FROM 06Z THURSDAY
NIGHT WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MOISTURE IS STILL NOT GREAT, BUT
MODELS ARE INCREASING IT. NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH SNOW WILL ACCUMULATE
OVER THE PLAINS ON FRIDAY, BUT IT SHOULD STICK BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
AT THIS TIME, THE QPF AMOUNTS FROM THE MODELS ARE NOT GOING "GANG-
BUSTERS" SO NO HIGHLIGHTS RIGHT NOW.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THURSDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN
TODAY'S READINGS, BUT STILL IN THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S FOR THE
PLAINS. FRIDAY'S HIGHS LOOK TO COOL OFF SIGNIFICANTLY WITH ONLY
30S OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, UPPER TROUGHINESS IS
STILL AROUND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE CWA. POPS WILL
STAY IN THE 30-60% RANGE SATURDAY, THEN DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT.
ZONAL FLOW WILL DOMINATE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR THE FORECAST
AREA. AN UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO MAY IMPACT
THE CWA MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS HOWEVER.
THERE COULD BE A COLD FRONT FOR THE PLAINS LATER TUESDAY AS WELL.
OVERALL THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR ALPINE SHOWERS, BUT THE
PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY, THEN WARM UP TO NEAR NORMALS
SUNDAY, WITH THE PLAINS SEEING MID AND UPPER 60S FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1128 PM MDT TUE APR 15 2025
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH SCT-BKN MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS TO PREVAIL INTO MID TO LATE
WEDNESDAY MORNING (15-17Z) AT DEN AND APA. WINDS THEN TURN MORE
WESTERLY FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS, AFTER 18Z. COULD BE SOME VARIABLE
WINDS MIXED IN WITH THE WESTERLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED HIGH-
BASED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF DEN AND BJC. WE COULD SEE A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH IF AN ORGANIZED BOUNDARY IS PRODUCED BY THE
SHOWERS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 404 AM MDT WED APR 16 2025
MODELS STILL SHOW LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WIND SPEEDS LOOK FAIRLY STRONG
AS WELL DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE IN
THAT AREA. WILL KEEP THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH GOING. ONE SAVING
GRACE, IS THAT FUELS OVER SOME THE AREA MAY NOT HAVE DRIED OUT
YET. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING FOR COZ214-216-240-241-245>247.
SHORT TERM......MEIER
LONG TERM.......RJK
AVIATION........MEIER
FIRE WEATHER....RJK
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