310
FXUS65 KBOU 181557
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
957 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT
ALONG WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND WINTER DRIVING TRAVEL
IMPACTS MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
- SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE SATURDAY, WITH A DRYING
TREND FOR THE PLAINS
- WARMER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 948 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
BANDED SNOW CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA ALTHOUGH
ACCUMULATIONS WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN CONFINED TO COLDER SURFACES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF OUR FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS.
KFTG VAD PROFILES ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF VEERING TOWARDS INCREASED
EASTERLY COMPONENTS AT LOWER LEVELS OVER THE PAST 30-60 MINUTES,
HELPING TO INITIATE SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF SNOW ALONG THE BASE OF
THE FOOTHILLS. THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON, WHEN
SNOW COVERAGE AND PERSISTENCE WILL INCREASE. BY ~5-7PM, ROAD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR
(ESPECIALLY WEST OF I-25 AND SOUTH OF DOWNTOWN DENVER) SHOULD
BEGIN TO SUPPORT SOME SLUSHY ACCUMULATION ON ROADWAYS, BUT STILL
SUSPECT AMOUNTS AND TIMING OF ANY SUCH ACCUMULATIONS WILL FALL
SHORT OF ADVISORY LEVELS. TO THAT END, THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 326 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER
NORTHEASTERN UTAH AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH A LOW STRATUS DECK OVER
MOST OF THE CWA'S PLAINS. SURFACE DATA INDICATED A VERY UNIFORM
AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS AT
10 TO 20 MPH AND TEMPERATURES FROM 28-32 DEGREES F. RADARS ARE
SHOWING SNOW CONTINUING TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
THE PLAINS AS WELL AS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND A LARGE PORTION OF
THE MOUNTAINS.
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER CIRCULATION TO MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA BY 06Z TONIGHT WITH THE UPPER TROUGH GETTING INTO THE
WESTERN CWA. BY 12Z SATURDAY MORNING, A NUMBER OF THE MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER UPPER CIRCULATION DEVELOP OVER NORTHWESTERN COLORADO INTO
CENTRAL WYOMING. AS A RESULT, THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY FOR THE
CWA IS PRETTY WEAK BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE
FLOW REMAINS PRETTY DECENT TODAY AND THIS EVENING, WEAKENING FROM
06Z TO 12Z TONIGHT. CROSS SECTIONS CONTINUE TO HAVE DEEP MOISTURE
OVER THE CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT, WITH SOME DRYING BY 12Z SATURDAY
MORNING. MODEL QPF IS MOSTLY ON TRACK CONCERNING CURRENT HIGHLIGHTS,
SO NOT MUCH TO CHANGE THERE. CONSIDERED AN ADVISORY IN ZONE 39,
BUT WITH MARGINAL SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED AND THE WARMTH OF THE
ROADS, WILL LEAVE THINGS AS IS FOR NOW. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES,
WILL MAINLY GO WITH 30S FOR MUCH OF THE CWA TODAY, BUT COLDER IN
THE MOUNTAIN ZONES WITH TEENS AND LOWER 20S. OF NOTE, DENVER'S
HIGH WAS 77 DEGREES YESTERDAY; TODAY IT BE OVER 40 DEGREES COLDER.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 323 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
GUIDANCE PLACES THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA BY
SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH WILL DRIFT SOUTHEASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO DURING THE DAY BEFORE EJECTING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS BY SUNDAY. WHILE THE STRONGER UPSLOPE FLOW AND QG ASCENT
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH OF OUR CWA, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY AND FAR WESTERN EDGES OF THE DENVER METRO. ONLY SOME MINOR
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL END UP WELL BELOW
NORMAL, WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE METRO.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW BY SUNDAY, WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. WE
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS
SUNDAY, WITH GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS, BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION
IS FORECAST.
WARMER WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS WE START NEXT WEEK, WITH
TEMPERATURES BACK IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S. GUIDANCE SHOWS
ENOUGH 700-500MB MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA
EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. DID LOWER
NBM POPS IN THIS TIME PERIOD BUT OUR GRIDS MAY STILL BE A BIT
BULLISH. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME ELEVATED/NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS
(POTENTIALLY AIDED BY DRY/GUSTY SHOWERS), BUT NO HIGHLIGHTS WERE
PLANNED AT THIS POINT.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY MID/LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A MORE ORGANIZED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.,
BUT THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF SPREAD ACROSS THE OVERNIGHT
GUIDANCE, WITH MOST SOLUTIONS FAVORING ANY MEANINGFUL QPF HOLDING
OFF UNTIL NEXT FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT FRI APR 18 2025
DIA CAN EXPECTED LIGHT SNOW TODAY WELL INTO TONIGHT ALONG WITH
UPSLOPE WINDS AND LOW CEILINGS. I WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS IN THE
BKN-OVC005-015 RANGE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, THEN IMPROVE THEM A
BIT INTO THE BKN-OVC010-020 RANGE THROUGH MID EVENING. I WILL KEEP
VISIBILITIES IN THE 2-5SM -SN BR RANGE THROUGH MID EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT SATURDAY FOR COZ031-
033>037.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON MDT
SATURDAY FOR COZ041.
UPDATE...RODRIGUEZ
SHORT TERM......RJK
LONG TERM.......HIRIS
AVIATION........RJK
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