835
FXUS65 KBOU 191143
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
543 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STILL SOME HAZARDOUS MOUNTAIN ROADS THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT
SNOW DECREASING.
- WARMER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 407 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SATELLITE PICTURES ARE SHOWING AN UPPER CLOSED OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA STILL PUSHING SOUTHWARD WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE CWA. AREA RADARS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME LIGHT SNOW
STILL FALLING OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA, MAINLY OVER PARK AND SOUTHERN
LINCOLN COUNTIES AT THIS TIME. MODELS SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH TO
PUSH EAST WARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BEHIND IT. WEAK DOWNWARD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY IS PROGGED OVER THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PROGGED TODAY FOR THE
PLAINS AND FOOTHILLS WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE PATTERNS TONIGHT. WITH
HOW THE SNOW HAS DECREASED UPSTREAM, I HAVE ENDED THE SNOW
ADVISORIES EARLY FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT SOUTH PARK WHERE ANOTHER
COUPLE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FOR MOISTURE, CROSS SECTIONS SHOW A STEADY DECREASE TODAY WITH
JUST SOME UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH FOR 30-60% CHANCES OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
DECREASING THIS EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINOR. WILL END
THE POPS FOR THE PLAINS BY MID TO LATE THIS MORNING. DRY TONIGHT
FOR THE PLAINS. FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY'S HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN
THE 40S OVER THE PLAINS, AND PERHAPS A TAD WARMER OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. TONIGHT'S LOWS SHOULD BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL OVER THE PLAINS, WITH LOWER TO MID 20S IN MOST AREAS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 319 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
SUNDAY SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, AS THE
UPPER TROUGH EJECTS TO THE NORTHEAST AND ZONAL FLOW REESTABLISHES
OVER COLORADO. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE WEST-
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS, BUT LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO START NEXT WEEK, WITH THE INCREASED
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT LEADING TO WARMER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL BE CLOSER TO 70F OVER THE
PLAINS. THE INCREASED MID-LEVEL FLOW (700MB WINDS NEAR 25-30KT)
WILL LEAD TO SOME GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
AS A RESULT, ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. WILL LIKELY NEED SOME HIGHLIGHTS IF
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THIS POTENTIAL.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK, AS A BROAD TROUGH BEGINS TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WEST COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN NEAR/ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN
THE PERIOD AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTERLY.
A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE
REGION, LEADING TO DAILY CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. GUIDANCE HAS GENERALLY FAVORS THURSDAY/FRIDAY FOR
THE BEST CHANCE OF MEANINGFUL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER, THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
PATTERN TOWARDS DAYS 6-8, WHICH ISN'T SURPRISING GIVEN THE WEAKLY
FORCED PATTERN.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 542 AM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
DIA CAN EXPECTED PRETTY WEAK SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS MUCH OF THE DAY
TODAY WITH NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MID
AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS AROUND TODAY AND THIS EVENING THEN
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
COZ037.
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....HIRIS
AVIATION...RJK
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