580
FXUS65 KBOU 192016
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
216 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARMER PATTERN SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH A CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS MOST DAYS.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW STILL TO OUR SOUTH, SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO ADVECT SOME MOISTURE INTO THE REGION, WITH A
PHOTOGENIC DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SOME
BUBBLING AS WELL OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY. COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN THE
TROUGH AXIS WILL HELP MAINTAIN MODERATE LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS, WHERE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. THESE
WILL BE MUCH LESS LIKELY NORTH OF I-70 WHERE THE UPSLOPE (I.E.
SOUTHEAST) COMPONENT WILL BE MISSING, AND MOISTURE LESS
PRONOUNCED.
MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, KEEPING CHILLY
TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. THE PLAINS WILL DROP INTO THE 20'S WITH
PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF SPOTS IN/AROUND THE DENVER METRO, WHICH
MAY NOT FALL BELOW 30F. THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS WILL ALSO BE COLD
GIVEN SOME FRESH SNOW AND CLEARING, FALLING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE EJECTS EAST INTO KANSAS SUNDAY, WEAK
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL FILL IN ALOFT. HIGHS WILL WARM NOTABLY ACROSS
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 60'S, WITH THE RISE
BEING COMPARATIVELY MORE MUTED IN THE HIGH COUNTRY WHERE CLOUD
COVER WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE PERSISTENT DURING THE DAY.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY, BUT SHIFTS EAST QUICKLY WITH WESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT SETTING UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
MONDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL BE IN THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY. THE WINDS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE 15 TO 30 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S. THIS LEADS TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE
FUELS THAT ARE CONDUCIVE TO CARRYING FIRE, WHILE OTHER AREAS MAY
HAVE STARTED TO SEE THE SPRING GREEN UP AND ARE LESS LIKELY TO
BURN. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
THE FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY SHIFTS TO MORE SOUTHWESTERLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES SHOW UP LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF DIGGING A DEEPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
U.S., WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE PATTERN.
FOR NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO, EXPECT GENERALLY WARM
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BY MIDWEEK WITH BETTER CHANCES OF LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH AFTERNOON, WITH SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 151 PM MDT SAT APR 19 2025
A DECK OF STRATOCUMULUS WITH BASES CURRENT NEAR 030 WILL CONTINUE
TO EXPAND AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON, WITH SOME MODEST
LIFTING OF BASES TO 040-050 ANTICIPATED SHORTLY. A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED NEAR 21Z (3PM MT) FOR ALL TERMINALS.
CURRENT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE SE. DIRECTION IS
EXPECTED TO HOLD MOSTLY STEADY, WITH A GRADUAL CLOCKWISE ROTATION
LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS WINDS RETURN TO A SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE FLOW PATTERN.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS ON SUN, WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF N/NW WINDS DURING THE DAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...RODRIGUEZ
LONG TERM...STARK
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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