973
FXUS65 KBOU 030859
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
259 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY AND WARMER TODAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY. ONLY AN ISOLATED
SHOWER/STORM POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BUT
MOSTLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- SPRING STORM BEGINS MONDAY AND CONTINUES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. BENEFICIAL SOAKING RAIN, AND HEAVIER FRONT RANGE MOUNTAIN SNOW
QUITE LIKELY (70-80% CHANCE).
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM AND DRY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO AVERAGE AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. CURRENT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE CENTRAL US AND
ROCKIES, AS THE CENTER OF AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE WILL SITUATE
ITSELF OVER COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON, MAKING FOR A RATHER NICE
DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 70S ACROSS
THE PLAINS, 50S AND 60S FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. THERE IS
A SMALL CHANCE THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON/EVENING TO ALLOW FOR
SOME DIURNAL SHOWERS OR WEAK STORMS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY OVER PARK
COUNTY. ASIDE FROM THAT, IT WILL BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S EXPECTED ACROSS THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND
ADJACENT PLAINS, 30S FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BEFORE SUNDAY KICKS OFF A MORE
ACTIVE PATTERN.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 300 AM MDT SAT MAY 3 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE SPRING STORM
SYSTEM SHAPING UP FOR MONDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
MODELS REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT, BUT SOME SMALL
CHANGES/UNCERTAINTIES TO DISCUSS.
FOR SUNDAY, THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST,
SETTING UP AN OMEGA BLOCK AS IT WILL BE ANCHORED IN BETWEEN AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ADVECT THIS WAY, AND ENOUGH EXPECTED FOR SOME WEAK MLCAPE
(LESS THAN 500 J/KG) AND SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT FOR
THE AFTERNOON. WE STILL THINK MOST OF THESE WILL BE CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS WHERE CAPPING IS WEAKER, BUT SOME THREAT OF STORMS
DEVELOPING AND SPREADING NORTHWARD FROM THE PALMER DIVIDE INTO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY/EVENING. OF OTHER NOTE, LOOK FOR
GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS, WITH PEAK GUSTS OF 35-40
MPH EXPECTED EAST OF I-25.
THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE
UPPER LOW DRIFTING SLOWLY EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS ARIZONA AND TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS MEANS A CONTINUATION OF DEEP SOUTH/
SOUTHEAST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND AN INFLUX OF GULF MOISTURE
DURING THE DAY. AS A RESULT, WE EXPECT HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, STARTING SOUTH OF I-70 IN THE MORNING AND THEN
SPREADING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE CHANCE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS IS QUITE LOW DUE TO
LIMITED INSTABILITY OF JUST A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG. HOWEVER, CAN
NEVER TOTALLY RULE OUT SOMETHING TRYING TO SPIN UP ON THE FRONT
END OF A SPRING STORM WITH THE STRONGER FLOW AND LOWER LCLS.
FINALLY, SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH (ABOVE 9,500-10,000
FEET) IN THE WARM SECTOR.
THE PRECIPITATION EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED TO REACH ITS PEAK
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK
EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. WHILE UNCERTAINTIES
ENTER THE PICTURE HERE REGARDING THE EXACT TRACK AND EVOLUTION, WE
THINK THAT'LL BE THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR MEANINGFUL UPSLOPE AND
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THAT SAID, THERE'S STILL A SMALL CHANCE
(~20%) THAT UPSTREAM BLOCKING REMAINS TOO STRONG AND/OR LATENT
HEAT RELEASE INFLUENCES FROM DEEP CONVECTION IN TEXAS SUPPORTS A
SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH TRACK. THE TREND OF LESS MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION (CLOSER TO 0.5" TOTALS) IS STILL IN PLAY FOR THE
NORTHEAST CORNER, WHILE THE FRONT RANGE IS STILL ON TRACK (70-80%
PROBABILITIES) TO RECEIVE ANYWHERE FROM 1-2" OF TOTAL
PRECIPITATION - HEAVIEST TOTALS LIKELY IN THE FOOTHILLS. THERE WAS
A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN HOWEVER IN THE LATEST ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SO THE
ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO OF A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK DOES BEAR WATCHING.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TURNING THE COOLEST THROUGH THIS TIME, BUT
WITHOUT LACK OF COLD ADVECTION WE'LL HAVE TO RELY ON LATENT HEAT
OF MELTING AND THE COLD CORE OF THE LOW TO DO IT'S WORK TO DRIVE
DOWN SNOW LEVELS. MOST ACCUMULATING SNOW EVEN TUESDAY NIGHT IS
EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE 8,000 FEET, WITH PERHAPS SOME SLUSHY
RAIN/SNOW MIX (NO ACCUMULATION) DOWN TO ABOUT 7,000 FEET AT THE
LOWEST. HIGHER FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS (EAST SLOPE) ARE STILL
TARGETED TO GET SOME PRETTY HEFTY TOTALS GREATER THAN A FOOT
POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE, VALLEY LOCATIONS FARTHER WEST INTO SUMMIT
COUNTY AND EASTERN GRAND COUNTY WILL LIKELY SEE ONLY LIGHT IF ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION DUE TO DOWNSLOPE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES THERE.
THERE IS STILL GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PRECIPITATION WINDS DOWN
WEDNESDAY, WITH A SLIGHT RECOVERY IN TEMPERATURES AND RISING SNOW
LEVELS.
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK SHOULD FEATURE GRADUAL
MODERATION WITH TEMPERATURES EDGING BACK ABOVE NORMAL. WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER A RIDGE, WE'LL SEE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A COUPLE STORMS MOST AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS, WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1105 PM MDT FRI MAY 2 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SSE WINDS ARE
BEGINNING THEIR TRANSITION TOWARDS DRAINAGE AT THIS TIME. TOMORROW
SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR WIND PATTERN TO TODAY'S, WITH A GRADUAL TURN
TO THE ENE FOR THE AFTERNOON AND A RETURN TO DRAINAGE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...BONNER
LONG TERM...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BONNER
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