971
FXUS65 KBOU 060534
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1134 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO LIKELY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DECREASING THIS
EVENING.
- WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION (SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS & FOOTHILLS)
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT; DECREASING WEDNESDAY.
- WARMER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
RADAR IS INDICATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER,
AND MOVING INTO, THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. THEY WERE MOVING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
WEAK INSTABILITY AROUND TO WARRANT A 50-80% PERCENT CHANCE OF
THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
CURRENTLY, THERE IS AN UPPER CLOSED LOW CENTERED AROUND EAST
CENTRAL ARIZONA. MODELS SHOW THIS TO MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE BY 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER CIRCULATION BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST OF COLORADO OVER SOUTHERN
NEVADA AT 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WILL
PROVIDE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND SYNOPTIC ENERGY TO BRING A DECENT
PRECIPITATION EVENT TO THE CWA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THE VARIOUS MODELS SHOW THAT 1.0-3.0 INCHES OF LIQUID COULD FALL
OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA ON UP THROUGH THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS AND
IMMEDIATE PLAINS.
THERE WILL BE WINTER WEATHER DRIVING IMPACTS WITH THE STORMS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE MOUNTAIN ZONES AND IN THE HIGHER FOOTHILLS,
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT.
THE CURRENT WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM
WARNING FROM 12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY FOR THE HIGH
MOUNTAIN ZONES; 33 AND 34. WE WILL ALSO GO WITH WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR PARK COUNTY AND THE FRONT RANGE FOOTHILLS; 35, 36
AND 37. RAIN WILL FALL OVER THE PLAINS AND PALMER RIDGE TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS ON TUESDAY WITH MID 40S TO MID 50S OVER THE PLAINS.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
PRECIPITATION SHOULD LINGER THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SLOWLY
TRAVELS EAST. AREAS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
MORNING BEFORE DECREASING IN THE AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF BY THE
EVENING. THERE COULD BE ADDITIONAL QPF AMOUNTS OF 0.1-0.3" ACROSS
THE PLAINS, WITH MINIMAL ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 8,500 FT. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW
AS LAPSE RATES LOOK UNIMPRESSIVE ON THE PLAINS. HOWEVER, WITH MUCAPE
VALUES UP TO A COUPLE HUNDRED J/KG AT TIMES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON,
CAN'T RULE OUT A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN TUESDAY, WITH HIGHS REACHING UP TO THE MID 50S AND MID 60S
ACROSS THE PLAINS.
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW EVENTUALLY
MAKING IT TO KANSAS AND WEAKENING BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WITH FLOW
ALOFT DECREASING AND TURNING MORE NORTHEASTERLY, OUR DEEP MOISTURE
SUPPLY WILL BE CUT OFF FROM THE SOUTH AND THUS DECREASE OUR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE SYSTEM AND A WEAK PIECE
OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSING THROUGH, THERE COULD BE SOME
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS IN THE
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HIGH COUNTRY,
BUT THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE (20%) IT COULD SPILL INTO THE LOWER
FOOTHILLS.
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, ENSEMBLE MODELS HAVE HONED IN ON
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE LOW 80S EXPECTED BY MONDAY. ASIDE FROM DIURNAL CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY, MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT MON MAY 5 2025
AREAS OF STRATUS WITH MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY BE IN/OUT THROUGH
10Z DUE TO VARIABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DOWNSLOPE SOUTHEAST
FLOW, BUT THEN LOW LEVEL WINDS TURN MORE EASTERLY OR EVEN
NORTHERLY 10Z-12Z, AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW LOWER CEILINGS DOWN INTO
THE 600-1500 FT RANGE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WE'LL
ALSO SEE RAIN DEVELOP 12Z-16Z, WITH A STEADY RAIN BY 16Z.
CEILINGS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN AT OR LESS THAN 1000 FEET WITH
VISIBILITY OF 3-5SM IN LIGHT RAIN AND FOG GIVEN EASTERLY UPSLOPE
FLOW. IT NOW APPEARS PRECIPITATION TURNS MORE SHOWERY AFTER
01Z-02Z WITH A LITTLE DRY INTRUSION ALOFT, BUT IFR WITH LOW
CEILINGS, LIGHT FOG, AND OFF/ON LIGHT RAIN SHOULD STICK AROUND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD (12Z WEDNESDAY).
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR
COZ033-034.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ035-036.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TUESDAY TO 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR COZ037.
SHORT TERM...RJK
LONG TERM....IDEKER
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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