809
FXUS65 KBOU 071736
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1136 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING STORM SLOWLY WINDING DOWN, BUT STILL A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS, AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS.
- WARMER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUE ROTATING WESTWARD AROUND THE UPPER LOW,
IN LINE WITH A DECENT 20 KT UPSLOPE COMPONENT. THAT UPSLOPE
SLOWLY WEAKENS THIS MORNING AS THE UPPER LOW ELONGATES EVEN
FURTHER ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO MISSOURI AND
ILLINOIS. THAT WILL LIKELY BRING A TEMPORARY DECREASE IN SHOWER
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE, AND ALLOW THE MOUNTAIN/FOOTHILL SNOW EVENT
TO WIND DOWN. WE THINK THE HEAVIEST SHOULD BE OVER AROUND 6-7 AM,
BUT WILL MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS AND ROAD CONDITIONS (MAINLY
SLUSH DURING THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND OVER THE HIGHEST PASSES)
BEFORE ALLOWING THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS TO EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM.
FOR LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON, THE ATMOSPHERIC PROFILES
ARE STILL QUITE MOIST AND NEUTRAL (TEMPERATURE PROFILES RIGHT UP
THE MOIST ADIABAT), SO ANY SORT OF DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT A
QUICK REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND EVEN SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WITH MLCAPE NEAR 200 J/KG. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION
IS LIKELY TO REACH 0.20 TO 0.40 INCH ON AVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE
AREA, ALTHOUGH ONCE AGAIN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS AND AREAS WEST OF
THE FRONT RANGE ARE SHAPING UP TO SEE LESSER AMOUNTS. DESPITE THE
RELATIVELY COOL TEMPERATURES, THESE WILL BE FAIRLY EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTH NEAR 2500-3000 FT - NOT BAD FOR
EARLY MAY. THUS, ANY OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING A QUICK QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IN 30 MINUTES, AND LOCALLY
HIGHER ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS THAN AFOREMENTIONED.
THOSE CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL WIND DOWN THIS EVENING AS
WE SLOWLY STABILIZE. THE LOSS OF UPSLOPE WILL ALSO MEAN DRYING
CONDITIONS WITH GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO PREVENT A FROST IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
OUTSIDE OF A COUPLE OF OUR COLDEST SPOTS. THAT MOISTURE COULD LEAD
TO SOME PATCHY FOG IN A COUPLE VALLEYS, BUT NO WIDESPREAD FOG
THREAT EXPECTED WITH LIGHT DOWNSLOPE WINDS DEVELOPING.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
MFVR/ILS AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY, BUT ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEFLY VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH ANY LOW CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATING WHILE WINDS RETURN TOWARDS TYPICAL DRAINAGE FLOW. VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW-SCT050 DECK IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...HIRIS
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