487
FXUS65 KBOU 072022
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
222 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SPRING STORM SLOWLY WINDING DOWN, BUT STILL A FAIRLY ACTIVE
WEATHER DAY TODAY WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FOOTHILLS
AND MOUNTAINS, AND RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ON THE PLAINS.
- WARMER WEATHER MOVES INTO THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY AND
CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL A FEW LATE DAY SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOST DAYS.
DISCUSSION.../THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 212 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON,
AS AN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT
PLAINS. MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER AN EAST-
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, ALTHOUGH KFTG VAD WIND PROFILE DATA
INDICATES THAT UPSLOPE HAS WEAKENED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY, WHILE
THE LOW LEVEL (0-2KM AGL) FLOW IS A BIT MORE NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY.
THERE'S BEEN ENOUGH MOISTURE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE MODEST
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP,
BUT MOST OF THE DENVER METRO HAS BEEN A LITTLE TOO STABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD TS. SATELLITE HAS SHOWN A FEW MORE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD
COVER, AND DEN HAS RECENTLY WARMED TO 53F... BUT WE'LL SEE IF
THERE'S ENOUGH TIME TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE MOISTURE/UPSLOPE
DIMINISH.
EITHER WAY, QUIETER WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS THE UPPER LEVEL
FINALLY PULLS AWAY TONIGHT, AND WE SEE A RETURN TOWARDS A MORE
TYPICAL MAY PATTERN. RIDGING SHOULD START TO BUILD ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL ALONG WITH
PARTY CLOUDY (FAIR WEATHER CU) SKIES. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING TO THE 70S ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... WHILE
80S LOOK LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE PLAINS ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE TRAPPED
UNDER THE RIDGE... ALONG WITH THE WEAK FLOW ALOFT... SHOULD LEAD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED, SLOW MOVING WEAK CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH
COUNTRY MOST AFTERNOONS, THOUGH THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMALLY
IMPACTFUL.
WARM AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A TURN TOWARDS A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS LIKELY BY MID-
WEEK, AS THERE'S A PRETTY GOOD CONSENSUS FOR A LARGE UPPER TROUGH
TO MOVE FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE ROCKIES IN THIS TIME PERIOD.
WON'T FOCUS TOO MUCH ON DETAILS HERE, BUT THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS TROUGH WOULD FALL WELL TO THE NORTH OF OUR
CWA IF THE CURRENT GUIDANCE IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO A CORRECT
SOLUTION.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 1131 AM MDT WED MAY 7 2025
STRATUS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. OVERALL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY
DECREASE BY THE MID-AFTERNOON, WITH CEILINGS ALSO EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY RISE. SHOULD SEE CONDITIONS BOUNCE BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN
MFVR/ILS AND VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH VFR BECOMING
MORE LIKELY BY THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
NORTH TODAY, BUT ANY STRONGER SHOWERS/STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME
BRIEFLY VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS.
QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH ANY LOW CLOUD COVER
DISSIPATING WHILE WINDS RETURN TOWARDS TYPICAL DRAINAGE FLOW. VFR
IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY WITH LIGHT WINDS. REDEVELOPMENT OF A
FEW-SCT050 DECK IS POSSIBLE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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