568
FXUS65 KBOU 100504
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1104 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. STILL A FEW LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND STORMS MOST DAYS MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
TODAY AND SATURDAY.
- WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY MONDAY AND TUESDAY, WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER 80S POSSIBLE ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- INCREASING CHANCES FOR ELEVATED/CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1245 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS, AS A BROAD RIDGE SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTINUE WARMING THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO PERHAPS LOW 80S ACROSS THE PLAINS. ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS
TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN, THOUGH MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD STAY WEAK.
THE FLOW ALOFT SHOULD GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A STRONG TROUGH DROPS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. WE LOOK TO BE ON TRACK TO
SEE THE TWO WARMEST DAYS OF THE YEAR SO FAR IN RESPONSE TO THE
INCREASING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES/DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. NEARLY ALL (MOS/DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE) GUIDANCE HINTS AT
UPPER 80S ACROSS THE DENVER METRO, AND IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING
TO SEE SOME 90F READINGS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
THE DRIER, WINDIER CONDITIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME COULD ALSO
LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. GEFS
HDWI (HOT DRY WINDY INDEX) PLUMES DO SHOW AT LEAST MODEST
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING AT LEAST THE 75TH PERCENTILE, WITH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES SOUTH/WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA. ULTIMATELY
IT IS TOO SOON TO TALK IN DETAILS, BUT FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO EJECT INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS BY MID-WEEK, WITH WEAKER ZONAL FLOW BEHIND
IT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES IN THIS
PERIOD, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE CWA.
GREATER MODEL SPREAD IS ALSO NOTED BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK, THOUGH
THE OVERALL PATTERN DOES LOOK ACTIVE ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1102 PM MDT FRI MAY 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD. LIGHT SE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SSW BY 07Z. WINDS ON SAT WILL BECOME SE BY 17Z AND CONTINUE THRU
THE AFTN.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...RPK
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