448
FXUS65 KBOU 042324
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
524 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
IT HAS TAKEN A WHILE, BUT CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. WE ARE
SEEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BEING PRODUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
EAST- NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 4PM) AND THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. TIMING WILL BE EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LITTLE AFTER NOON. AT THE
SURFACE, A TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY.
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF IT WITH MLCAPE
900-1200 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD AS WELL, SO A FEW OF THE STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SEVERE. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
LESS INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE UP TO 700 J/KG, SO MOST/ALL OF THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DRY (MOSTLY) DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MOST
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 80 DEGREES.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND ANY SHOWER/STORM
WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE'S
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 516 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
THERE WILL BE A CHC OF TSTMS (40%) THRU 02Z AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS
TO THE WEST AND SW AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AFTER 02Z ACTIVITY
WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHC OF LINGERING
SHOWERS. CEILINGS MAY DROP DOWN TO 4000-5000 FT AS THE ACTIVITY
MOVES ACROSS WITH BRIEF VISIBILITY DOWN TO 5SM. OVERNIGHT MAY SEE
CEILINGS DROP DOWN TO 1500-2000 FT BETWEEN 09Z AND 13Z. AFTER 13Z
SHOULD SEE CEILINGS SCT OUT. THERE WILL BE SCT TSTMS BY 20Z THU
AFTN.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE SE THRU THE EVENING OUTSIDE OF ERRACTIC
WINDS WITH STORMS. AFTER 08Z WINDS MAY BECOME MORE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION WITH SPEEDS UNDER 6 MPH. WINDS BY 17Z WED WILL GRADUALLY
BECOME NNE.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...RPK
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