672
FXUS65 KBOU 051145
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
545 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.
- SLOW WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 346 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2025
I'M PRETTY SURE I'VE WRITTEN THE SAME FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. YOU ARE PROBABLY NOT SHOCKED TO LEARN THAT
TONIGHT'S AFD WON'T BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT.
STRATUS HAS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS,
THOUGH SO FAR IT HAS REMAINED EAST OF I-25. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN OF
LITTLE HELP SO FAR WITH REGARDS TO THE WESTWARD EXTENT OF THE
STRATUS DECK, BUT GIVEN HOW MUCH MOISTURE HAS BEEN AROUND FOR THE
LAST WEEK I WOULD GUESS THAT THERE WILL AT LEAST BE SOME STRATUS
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BEFORE
IT ONCE AGAIN SCATTERS OUT.
AS NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, YET ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, LEADING TO MORE
SCATTERED AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WE EXPECT THINGS TO
GET GOING A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS... GENERALLY
TOWARDS THE EARLY/MID AFTERNOON. THERE'S AT LEAST A MARGINAL
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MOST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND PLAINS TODAY,
AS THE AFTERNOON FEATURES MODEST MLCAPE ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MAGNITUDES NEAR 40-50KT. THE HREF AND SEVERAL MPAS CAMS
FAVOR A CORRIDOR FROM ROUGHLY NORTHERN WELD COUNTY TOWARDS FORT
MORGAN/AKRON WHERE THINGS ARE A LITTLE LESS CAPPED, WITH WEAKER
CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE DENVER METRO. STILL, WE'LL LIKELY
CONTINUE OUR STREAK OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL AT DEN TODAY GIVEN THE
ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION. MORE
OVERNIGHT STRATUS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT.
BY FRIDAY... YEP YOU GUESSED IT, ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK ACROSS THE REGION, LEADING TO MORE SHOWERS/STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE BELOW NORMAL (UPPER 60S TO
MID 70S PLAINS), WITH MODEST INSTABILITY REDEVELOPING. CAN'T RULE
OUT A STRONGER STORM OR TWO BUT AT THIS POINT THE OVERALL SEVERE
THREAT WOULD BE FAIRLY MARGINAL.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 241 PM MDT WED JUN 4 2025
IT HAS TAKEN A WHILE, BUT CLOUDS HAVE SCATTERED OUT OVER MOST OF
THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 60S
TO LOWER 70S. THIS COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S WILL LEAD TO MLCAPE UP TO 800 J/KG. SOME OF THE STORMS THAT
DEVELOP MAY BE STRONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. WE ARE
SEEING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION BEING PRODUCED BY A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
EAST- NORTHEAST OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
TRIGGER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON (AFTER 4PM) AND THIS EVENING.
ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING A ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY. TIMING WILL BE EARLIER IN THE
DAY WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP A LITTLE AFTER NOON. AT THE
SURFACE, A TROUGH DRIFTS EAST ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY.
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST OF IT WITH MLCAPE
900-1200 J/KG. SHEAR WILL BE GOOD AS WELL, SO A FEW OF THE STORMS
THAT FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD BECOME SEVERE. TO THE WEST OF
THE TROUGH ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON FRIDAY, WE WILL SEE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSH ACROSS THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND AN EASTERLY WIND WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL LEAD TO A LITTLE
LESS INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE UP TO 700 J/KG, SO MOST/ALL OF THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUB-SEVERE.
SATURDAY WILL BE THE ONE DRY (MOSTLY) DAY. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
FRIDAY'S SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS. MOST
LOCATIONS OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO ARE EXPECTED TO TOP 80 DEGREES.
CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN, BUT CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 20 PERCENT AND ANY SHOWER/STORM
WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED.
TEMPERATURES TAKE A STEP COOLER SUNDAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT
THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL HELP TO INCREASE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON
SHOWERS/STORMS.
FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, A RIDGE WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE'S
EXPECTED TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE FOR LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY NEXT WEEK THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UP TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 539 AM MDT THU JUN 5 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
TODAY, WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING THIS EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. STRATUS NEVER QUITE MANAGED TO DEVELOP AT THE
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT, AND DON'T EXPECT THAT TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. COULD STILL BE SOME BRIEF IMPACTS CLOSER TO BJC WHERE
THERE'S ONE LITTLE PATCH OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SOME BR, BUT DON'T
ANTICIPATE THAT LASTING TOO MUCH LONGER. WINDS ARE ALREADY
SHIFTING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK CYCLONE ONCE AGAIN LIFTS
OUT OF THE METRO.
A SIMILAR FORECAST TO YESTERDAY IS ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY, WITH
WEAK NORTHEAST WINDS EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING OR
EARLY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BETWEEN 18-21Z, WITH SOME IMPACTS AT THE TERMINALS LIKELY BETWEEN
ROUGHLY 21-03Z WITH ONE OR MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/STORMS.
CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LOWER THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THERE'S A MUCH BETTER SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD LOWER STRATUS
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, POTENTIALLY LASTING THROUGH MID-MORNING FRIDAY.
SOME GUIDANCE IS QUITE BULLISH GETTING IN SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS
CLOSER TO 12Z FRIDAY. WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS FOR BR/FG
POTENTIAL AS WELL.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HIRIS
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...HIRIS
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