986
FXUS65 KBOU 012026
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
226 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED THREAT FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. ELSEWHERE, BRIEF GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM 35-50 MPH.
- HOT WEDNESDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONFINED TO MOUNTAINS.
- STORM CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
- A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE FOURTH OF JULY AND INDEPENDENCE DAY WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 225 PM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WAS WEAKENING ON THE PLAINS PER LATEST SPC
ANALYSIS, AND WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME SURFACE BASED CUMULUS ON
THE PLAINS. THUS, WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS
TO DEVELOP OTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH A BIT MORE SURFACE
HEATING. THOSE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING, SLOWLY
MIGRATING EASTWARD BEFORE THE AIRMASS STABILIZES AGAIN LATE THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE STRONG, GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS
GIVEN DCAPE OF 1400-1600 J/KG, AND A COUPLE SEVERE GUSTS OF 60 MPH
OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MEANS A STRONGER CAP, HOT
TEMPERATURES (MID 90S FOR THE PLAINS), AND LESS CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS/WEAK STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, THE PLAINS WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY STAY DRY WITH
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT KEEPING THE CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE HIGH
COUNTRY.
FOR THURSDAY, WE'RE STILL ON TRACK TO SEE A PLUME OF SUB-TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVE NORTHWARD INTO COLORADO, IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
AND A WEAK TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. AS A
RESULT, THURSDAY'S CONVECTIVE INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE, WITH LIKELY THE BEST CHANCE (30-60%) OF RAIN THIS
WEEK.
WITH REGARD TO THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WEATHER, WE'RE STILL SEEING
MIXED SIGNALS IN THE ENSEMBLE OUTPUT. MOST HAVE THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST TROUGH EJECTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
MID DAY, WHILE A FEW ARE STILL SLOWER. THE SLOWER ONES (ABOUT
20-30% OF OUTPUT) WOULD SUGGEST A HIGHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS,
AT LEAST FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MEANWHILE, THE MAJORITY (70-80%)
BEING FASTER WOULD SUGGEST LESS COVERAGE OF SOMEWHAT WEAKER
STORMS, AND ALSO AN EARLIER DEPARTURE FOR EVENING EVENTS.
TYPICAL SUMMER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED THROUGH THE INDEPENDENCE
DAY WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES AT/JUST ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS AND A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MLCAPE DOES
BUILD ACROSS THE PLAINS, SO A COUPLE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF THE I-25 CORRIDOR DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1155 AM MDT TUE JUL 1 2025
MAIN CONCERN WILL BE FOR VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS TO 35+ KTS DUE TO
HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. WINDS WOULD ALMOST BE CERTAIN AT SOME POINT AS LONG AS
WE HIT CONVECTIVE TEMPS (ACARS SOUNDINGS SHOW GRADUALLY WEAKENING
INVERSIONS), SO REACHING THAT TEMP SHOULD OCCUR TOWARD 22-23Z.
THUS, WE'LL HAVE TEMPO VRB G35KTS IN THE TAFS, ALTHOUGH IF A
MICROBURST ORIGINATES CLOSER TO THE FIELD A SLIGHT CHANCE (20%)
THAT WINDS GUST TO 45 KTS GIVEN DCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG. MAIN THREAT
TIME WOULD BE 22Z-02Z.
OUTSIDE OF THE MICROBURST DISRUPTIONS, WINDS WILL FOLLOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERNS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST, WITH CLEARING SKIES
OVERNIGHT. WEDNESDAY WILL FEATURE LITTLE IF ANY THREAT OF AIRPORT
IMPACTS AS ANY CONVECTION WILL BE CONFINED TO MOUNTAIN LOCALES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH
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