592
UXUS97 KBOU 180116
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
1915 MDT THURSDAY, JULY 17, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 18, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 84.6 F/29.2 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1157 FT/MIN (5.9 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 17765 FT MSL (12466 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 93.0 F/34.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1030 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1500 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 11876 FT MSL (6577 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 07/19..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ NEITHER
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 14390 FT MSL (9091 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 07/19........ POOR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:46:53 / 20:24:42 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 37 MIN 50 SEC (877 MIN 50 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:05:47 MDT... 71.06 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/18/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16244 FT MSL (10945 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16851 FT MSL (11552 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 17255 FT MSL (11956 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -1.5
K INDEX......................... +21.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.8 -86.4 250 27 14 1.0 0.5 M M M M M
45000 -61.7 -79.1 245 37 19 6.6 3.6 M M M M M
40000 -51.2 -60.2 235 51 27 7.0 3.8 M M M M M
38000 -47.0 -52.6 240 50 26 7.0 3.8 M M M M M
36000 -42.8 -45.0 245 49 25 7.0 3.9 M M M M M
34000 -38.5 -37.3 245 44 23 7.3 4.0 M M M M M
32000 -34.1 -29.4 250 38 20 7.2 3.9 M M M M M
30000 -29.5 -21.1 255 35 18 7.7 4.2 46.7 116.0 9.7 M M
29000 -26.7 -16.1 260 33 17 7.8 4.3 45.8 114.4 9.1 M M
28000 -24.4 -11.9 265 31 16 7.6 4.2 45.1 113.1 8.7 M M
27000 -22.1 -7.8 265 28 15 7.7 4.2 44.2 111.5 8.0 M M
26000 -19.8 -3.6 270 26 13 7.7 4.2 43.4 110.2 7.5 M M
25000 -17.6 0.3 275 23 12 7.4 4.0 42.8 109.0 7.0 M M
24000 -15.6 3.9 270 19 10 6.8 3.7 41.6 106.9 6.1 M M
23000 -13.6 7.5 270 15 8 6.8 3.7 40.5 105.0 5.2 M M
22000 -11.6 11.1 265 11 6 6.6 3.6 39.6 103.3 4.4 M M
21000 -9.7 14.5 265 8 4 6.3 3.4 38.3 100.9 3.3 M M
20000 -7.9 17.8 255 5 2 6.3 3.5 37.1 98.7 2.3 M M
19500 -7.0 19.4 240 3 2 6.3 3.5 36.5 97.7 1.8 M M
19000 -6.1 21.0 235 2 1 6.3 3.4 35.9 96.7 1.3 M M
18500 -5.1 22.8 250 2 1 6.3 3.5 35.3 95.6 0.8 M M
18000 -4.2 24.4 270 2 1 6.8 3.7 34.7 94.5 0.2 M M
17500 -3.1 26.4 295 1 1 7.4 4.1 34.3 93.8 -0.1 1139 5.8
17000 -2.0 28.4 320 2 1 7.4 4.1 34.0 93.1 -0.5 1092 5.5
16500 -0.9 30.4 335 2 1 8.3 4.6 33.6 92.5 -0.8 1043 5.3
16000 0.3 32.5 335 3 1 8.3 4.5 33.4 92.1 -1.1 992 5.0
15500 1.5 34.7 340 3 2 8.4 4.6 33.1 91.7 -1.3 941 4.8
15000 3.4 38.1 335 4 2 8.4 4.6 32.8 91.0 -1.7 863 4.4
14500 4.7 40.5 340 4 2 8.5 4.7 32.6 90.7 -1.9 811 4.1
14000 5.9 42.6 340 5 3 8.5 4.7 32.4 90.3 -2.1 759 3.9
13500 7.1 44.8 340 6 3 8.6 4.7 32.2 90.0 -2.3 707 3.6
13000 8.4 47.1 350 6 3 8.6 4.7 32.0 89.6 -2.6 654 3.3
12500 9.7 49.5 355 6 3 8.6 4.7 31.8 89.3 -2.8 602 3.1
12000 10.9 51.6 360 7 4 8.6 4.7 31.7 89.0 -3.0 549 2.8
11500 12.2 54.0 005 8 4 8.5 4.7 31.5 88.7 -3.2 496 2.5
11000 13.4 56.1 005 8 4 8.0 4.4 31.3 88.3 -3.4 445 2.3
10500 14.6 58.3 360 9 4 4.4 2.4 31.0 87.9 -3.7 393 2.0
10250 14.8 58.6 360 9 4 5.2 2.9 30.5 86.8 -4.2 380 1.9
10000 15.5 59.9 360 8 4 10.6 5.8 30.4 86.8 -4.2 352 1.8
9750 16.2 61.2 355 8 4 9.6 5.3 30.4 86.8 -4.3 323 1.6
9500 16.9 62.4 355 8 4 8.2 4.5 30.4 86.7 -4.3 295 1.5
9250 17.4 63.3 355 8 4 5.9 3.2 30.2 86.3 -4.6 273 1.4
9000 17.9 64.2 350 7 4 7.6 4.2 29.9 85.9 -4.8 251 1.3
8750 18.5 65.3 350 7 4 9.1 5.0 29.8 85.7 -4.9 225 1.1
8500 19.1 66.4 345 7 3 7.7 4.2 29.8 85.6 -5.1 199 1.0
8250 19.6 67.3 340 7 3 5.8 3.2 29.5 85.1 -5.3 177 0.9
8000 20.1 68.2 340 7 3 6.7 3.7 29.2 84.6 -5.6 157 0.8
7750 20.6 69.1 330 7 3 8.4 4.6 29.1 84.3 -5.8 133 0.7
7500 21.2 70.2 325 7 4 6.7 3.7 28.9 84.1 -6.0 109 0.6
7250 21.5 70.7 320 7 4 5.0 2.7 28.6 83.5 -6.4 90 0.5
7000 21.9 71.4 320 8 4 5.6 3.1 28.3 82.9 -6.7 72 0.4
6750 22.3 72.1 315 8 4 4.7 2.6 27.9 82.3 -7.1 53 0.3
6500 22.4 72.3 305 8 4 -1.4 -0.8 27.4 81.3 -7.7 42 0.2
6250 22.0 71.6 300 8 4 -5.6 -3.1 26.3 79.3 -8.9 46 0.2
6000 21.7 71.1 290 8 4 -2.8 -1.6 25.2 77.4 -10.0 50 0.3
5750 21.3 70.3 280 8 4 -9.6 -5.3 24.2 75.5 -11.1 54 0.3
5500 19.9 67.8 265 6 3 -26.7 -14.7 22.1 71.7 -13.3 89 0.5
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/18/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 07/18/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +28.8 LI... +0.3 | CAPE... +42.6 LI... -0.5
CINH... -63.9 K INDEX... +23.0 | CINH... -22.0 K INDEX... +25.1
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.5 -84.1 245 24 12 1.3 0.7 | -64.5 -84.1 250 24 12 2.0 1.1
45000 -60.2 -76.4 245 38 19 5.6 3.1 | -59.6 -75.3 245 37 19 5.3 2.9
40000 -51.6 -60.9 245 50 26 6.6 3.6 | -51.4 -60.5 245 49 25 6.4 3.5
38000 -47.6 -53.7 250 50 26 6.6 3.6 | -47.6 -53.7 250 53 27 6.3 3.5
36000 -43.7 -46.7 250 50 26 6.7 3.7 | -43.8 -46.8 250 57 29 6.6 3.6
34000 -39.1 -38.4 255 47 24 7.8 4.3 | -39.2 -38.6 255 54 28 7.9 4.3
32000 -34.4 -29.9 260 44 23 7.8 4.3 | -34.5 -30.1 260 52 27 7.8 4.3
30000 -29.3 -20.7 260 38 19 7.5 4.1 | -29.2 -20.6 260 44 23 7.7 4.2
29000 -27.1 -16.8 260 35 18 7.5 4.1 | -26.9 -16.4 260 41 21 7.7 4.2
28000 -24.9 -12.8 265 32 17 7.5 4.1 | -24.6 -12.3 260 37 19 7.5 4.1
27000 -22.7 -8.9 265 30 15 7.5 4.1 | -22.4 -8.3 260 36 18 7.5 4.1
26000 -20.5 -4.9 265 28 14 7.5 4.1 | -20.2 -4.4 260 34 17 7.5 4.1
25000 -18.2 -0.8 265 26 13 7.1 3.9 | -18.0 -0.4 265 32 16 6.9 3.8
24000 -16.4 2.5 260 22 11 6.4 3.5 | -16.1 3.0 260 28 15 6.3 3.4
23000 -14.5 5.9 260 18 10 6.5 3.5 | -14.3 6.3 260 25 13 6.4 3.5
22000 -12.7 9.1 250 15 8 6.6 3.6 | -12.5 9.5 255 22 11 6.5 3.6
21000 -10.7 12.7 250 13 7 6.7 3.7 | -10.6 12.9 255 20 10 6.6 3.6
20000 -8.8 16.2 245 11 6 6.7 3.7 | -8.7 16.3 255 17 9 6.7 3.7
19500 -7.8 18.0 245 10 5 6.7 3.7 | -7.7 18.1 250 16 8 6.7 3.7
19000 -6.8 19.8 245 9 5 6.9 3.8 | -6.8 19.8 255 15 8 6.7 3.7
18500 -5.8 21.6 250 8 4 6.9 3.8 | -5.8 21.6 260 14 7 6.7 3.7
18000 -4.8 23.4 255 8 4 7.4 4.0 | -4.8 23.4 265 12 6 7.1 3.9
17500 -3.6 25.5 260 7 3 7.8 4.3 | -3.8 25.2 270 11 6 7.4 4.0
17000 -2.5 27.5 265 6 3 7.8 4.3 | -2.7 27.1 275 10 5 7.4 4.1
16500 -0.7 30.7 275 5 3 8.1 4.4 | -0.9 30.4 285 8 4 8.3 4.5
16000 0.5 32.9 285 5 2 8.1 4.5 | 0.3 32.5 290 7 4 8.4 4.6
15500 1.7 35.1 295 5 2 8.5 4.7 | 1.6 34.9 300 7 4 8.6 4.7
15000 2.9 37.2 305 5 2 8.4 4.6 | 2.8 37.0 305 7 3 8.5 4.7
14500 4.2 39.6 320 5 2 8.7 4.8 | 4.2 39.6 310 6 3 9.4 5.2
14000 5.4 41.7 330 5 3 8.7 4.7 | 5.6 42.1 320 6 3 9.4 5.1
13500 6.7 44.1 340 5 3 8.9 4.9 | 7.0 44.6 325 6 3 9.4 5.1
13000 8.1 46.6 350 6 3 9.0 4.9 | 8.4 47.1 330 6 3 9.4 5.2
12500 9.4 48.9 355 6 3 9.1 5.0 | 9.8 49.6 335 6 3 9.3 5.1
12000 10.8 51.4 355 7 3 9.1 5.0 | 11.2 52.2 335 6 3 9.3 5.1
11500 12.1 53.8 355 7 4 9.0 4.9 | 12.5 54.5 335 6 3 9.2 5.0
11000 13.4 56.1 350 7 4 8.5 4.7 | 13.9 57.0 340 6 3 8.8 4.8
10500 14.8 58.6 345 8 4 4.5 2.4 | 15.3 59.5 345 6 3 4.6 2.5
10250 14.9 58.8 345 8 4 5.5 3.0 | 15.5 59.9 345 5 3 6.1 3.3
10000 15.7 60.3 340 8 4 11.6 6.4 | 16.3 61.3 350 5 3 12.6 6.9
9750 16.5 61.7 335 8 4 10.6 5.8 | 17.1 62.8 350 5 3 11.7 6.4
9500 17.3 63.1 335 9 5 8.5 4.6 | 18.0 64.4 350 5 3 8.7 4.8
9250 17.7 63.9 330 9 5 6.1 3.3 | 18.5 65.3 355 5 2 6.8 3.7
9000 18.3 64.9 330 9 5 8.7 4.8 | 19.1 66.4 360 4 2 10.6 5.8
8750 19.0 66.2 325 9 5 10.3 5.7 | 19.9 67.8 005 4 2 11.8 6.5
8500 19.7 67.5 320 9 5 8.2 4.5 | 20.7 69.3 010 4 2 9.7 5.3
8250 20.2 68.4 320 9 5 5.5 3.0 | 21.3 70.3 015 4 2 6.8 3.7
8000 20.6 69.1 320 9 5 7.1 3.9 | 21.9 71.4 020 4 2 10.1 5.6
7750 21.2 70.2 315 9 5 9.2 5.0 | 22.8 73.0 020 4 2 12.9 7.1
7500 21.8 71.2 315 9 4 6.2 3.4 | 23.7 74.7 020 4 2 9.7 5.3
7250 22.1 71.8 315 8 4 3.7 2.0 | 24.3 75.7 025 4 2 7.4 4.0
7000 22.4 72.3 315 8 4 4.8 2.6 | 24.9 76.8 025 4 2 9.7 5.3
6750 22.8 73.0 310 7 4 6.3 3.5 | 25.7 78.3 030 4 2 12.9 7.1
6500 23.3 73.9 305 6 3 6.9 3.8 | 26.7 80.1 030 4 2 11.4 6.2
6250 23.7 74.7 300 5 3 6.8 3.7 | 27.5 81.5 030 4 2 10.2 5.6
6000 24.2 75.6 290 4 2 6.3 3.4 | 28.2 82.8 035 4 2 9.3 5.1
5750 24.7 76.5 280 4 2 10.3 5.7 | 29.0 84.2 035 3 2 15.3 8.4
5500 25.8 78.4 270 4 2 19.2 10.6 | 30.7 87.3 035 3 2 29.7 16.3
07/18/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 07/18/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +61.1 LI... -0.4 | CAPE... +55.9 LI... -0.0
CINH... -21.7 K INDEX... +28.0 | CINH... -123.3 K INDEX... +29.2
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.2 -83.6 245 26 13 1.4 0.8 | -64.5 -84.1 250 29 15 1.1 0.6
45000 -59.9 -75.8 245 40 21 5.4 3.0 | -60.4 -76.7 250 46 24 5.4 3.0
40000 -51.4 -60.5 250 54 28 6.7 3.7 | -51.9 -61.4 250 60 31 7.1 3.9
38000 -47.4 -53.3 250 59 30 6.7 3.7 | -47.6 -53.7 245 59 31 7.1 3.9
36000 -43.4 -46.1 255 63 33 6.9 3.8 | -43.3 -45.9 245 58 30 7.4 4.1
34000 -38.9 -38.0 255 59 30 7.6 4.2 | -38.5 -37.3 250 54 28 8.0 4.4
32000 -33.7 -28.7 260 54 28 8.3 4.6 | -33.7 -28.7 250 50 26 8.7 4.8
30000 -28.9 -20.0 260 49 25 8.0 4.4 | -28.4 -19.1 255 46 24 7.9 4.3
29000 -26.5 -15.7 260 47 24 8.0 4.4 | -26.1 -15.0 255 44 23 7.9 4.3
28000 -24.2 -11.6 260 44 23 7.3 4.0 | -23.8 -10.8 260 42 22 7.5 4.1
27000 -22.0 -7.6 260 41 21 7.4 4.0 | -21.5 -6.7 260 41 21 7.5 4.1
26000 -19.8 -3.6 260 39 20 7.4 4.1 | -19.3 -2.7 265 39 20 7.5 4.1
25000 -17.6 0.3 260 36 18 7.1 3.9 | -17.1 1.2 265 38 19 7.3 4.0
24000 -15.5 4.1 260 32 17 7.0 3.8 | -15.0 5.0 265 34 18 7.1 3.9
23000 -13.5 7.7 260 29 15 7.1 3.9 | -12.9 8.8 265 31 16 7.2 3.9
22000 -11.5 11.3 255 25 13 6.9 3.8 | -10.8 12.6 265 28 14 6.9 3.8
21000 -9.6 14.7 260 22 11 6.7 3.7 | -8.8 16.2 265 23 12 6.8 3.7
20000 -7.7 18.1 260 19 10 6.7 3.7 | -6.9 19.6 265 19 10 6.9 3.8
19500 -6.7 19.9 265 17 9 6.8 3.7 | -5.9 21.4 265 16 8 6.9 3.8
19000 -5.8 21.6 265 15 8 6.6 3.6 | -5.0 23.0 270 14 7 6.8 3.7
18500 -4.8 23.4 270 14 7 6.6 3.6 | -4.0 24.8 270 12 6 6.8 3.7
18000 -3.9 25.0 270 12 6 6.5 3.6 | -3.0 26.6 270 10 5 6.9 3.8
17500 -2.9 26.8 275 11 6 6.5 3.6 | -2.0 28.4 265 8 4 6.9 3.8
17000 -2.0 28.4 280 10 5 6.5 3.6 | -1.0 30.2 255 7 4 6.8 3.7
16500 -1.0 30.2 280 8 4 7.7 4.2 | -0.1 31.8 245 6 3 5.9 3.2
16000 0.7 33.3 285 6 3 7.8 4.3 | 0.7 33.3 230 5 3 5.9 3.2
15500 2.0 35.6 290 5 3 8.8 4.9 | 1.6 34.9 210 4 2 6.7 3.7
15000 3.3 37.9 295 5 2 8.8 4.8 | 2.6 36.7 190 4 2 6.8 3.7
14500 4.6 40.3 300 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 3.6 38.5 175 5 2 7.8 4.3
14000 6.0 42.8 305 3 2 9.0 5.0 | 4.9 40.8 165 5 2 8.6 4.7
13500 7.4 45.3 310 3 1 9.3 5.1 | 6.2 43.2 155 5 3 8.7 4.7
13000 8.8 47.8 315 2 1 9.4 5.2 | 8.1 46.6 145 5 2 8.7 4.8
12500 10.2 50.4 325 2 1 9.5 5.2 | 9.4 48.9 135 4 2 8.8 4.8
12000 11.6 52.9 335 1 1 9.5 5.2 | 10.7 51.3 125 4 2 8.8 4.8
11500 13.0 55.4 345 1 1 9.6 5.3 | 12.0 53.6 115 4 2 8.8 4.8
11000 14.4 57.9 345 1 1 9.4 5.2 | 13.4 56.1 100 3 2 8.6 4.7
10500 15.9 60.6 350 1 1 5.6 3.1 | 14.6 58.3 085 3 2 2.8 1.6
10250 16.1 61.0 350 1 1 6.9 3.8 | 14.7 58.5 085 3 2 5.2 2.9
10000 17.0 62.6 350 1 1 12.7 7.0 | 15.6 60.1 065 3 1 13.2 7.3
9750 17.9 64.2 345 2 1 12.0 6.6 | 16.4 61.5 045 3 2 11.7 6.4
9500 18.7 65.7 345 2 1 9.2 5.1 | 17.2 63.0 030 3 2 7.5 4.1
9250 19.3 66.7 345 2 1 7.7 4.2 | 17.6 63.7 025 4 2 4.5 2.5
9000 20.0 68.0 345 2 1 10.9 6.0 | 18.1 64.6 010 4 2 9.6 5.2
8750 20.8 69.4 340 2 1 11.9 6.5 | 18.9 66.0 360 5 3 10.9 6.0
8500 21.7 71.1 340 2 1 9.6 5.3 | 19.6 67.3 355 6 3 7.4 4.0
8250 22.3 72.1 340 2 1 6.6 3.6 | 20.0 68.0 350 6 3 4.3 2.4
8000 22.8 73.0 335 2 1 10.0 5.5 | 20.4 68.7 345 7 4 8.1 4.5
7750 23.7 74.7 335 2 1 12.7 7.0 | 21.1 70.0 335 8 4 10.4 5.7
7500 24.6 76.3 330 2 1 10.1 5.5 | 21.8 71.2 335 9 5 7.3 4.0
7250 25.2 77.4 330 2 1 8.3 4.6 | 22.2 72.0 330 10 5 5.3 2.9
7000 25.9 78.6 325 2 1 9.9 5.4 | 22.7 72.9 330 10 5 8.8 4.8
6750 26.7 80.1 325 2 1 11.8 6.5 | 23.5 74.3 325 11 6 10.7 5.9
6500 27.6 81.7 320 2 1 10.6 5.8 | 24.1 75.4 320 12 6 7.4 4.0
6250 28.3 82.9 320 2 1 9.7 5.3 | 24.6 76.3 320 12 6 7.2 4.0
6000 29.1 84.4 320 2 1 9.4 5.1 | 25.1 77.2 320 12 6 5.3 2.9
5750 29.9 85.8 320 2 1 14.6 8.0 | 25.5 77.9 320 12 6 7.0 3.8
5500 31.4 88.5 320 2 1 25.8 14.2 | 26.3 79.3 320 11 6 16.0 8.8
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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