243
UXUS97 KBOU 181220
SRGBOU
SOARING FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER, COLORADO
0616 MDT FRIDAY, JULY 18, 2025
THIS FORECAST IS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 18, 2025:
IF THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE OF 85.3 F/29.6 C IS REACHED...THEN
THERMAL SOARING INDEX....................... EXCELLENT
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT........................ 1205 FT/MIN (6.1 M/S)
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS.................. 18070 FT MSL (12770 FT AGL)
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE................... 93.0 F/34.3 C
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.................... 1045 MDT
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT........................ 1500 MDT
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS DURING SOARING WINDOW....... NONE
SURFACE WINDS DURING SOARING WINDOW............ 20 MPH OR LESS
HEIGHT OF THE -3 THERMAL INDEX................. 12796 FT MSL (7496 FT AGL)
THERMAL SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 07/19..... EXCELLENT
WAVE SOARING INDEX............................. POOR
WAVE SOARING INDEX TREND (TO 1800 MDT)......... NO CHANGE
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (12-18K FT MSL)......... NONE
WEAK PVA/NVA (THROUGH 1800 MDT)................ WEAK PVA
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE....................... 14151 FT MSL (8851 FT AGL)
WAVE SOARING OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY 07/19........ FAIR
REMARKS...
SUNRISE/SUNSET.................... 05:46:53 / 20:24:42 MDT
TOTAL POSSIBLE SUNSHINE........... 14 HR 37 MIN 50 SEC (877 MIN 50 SEC)
ALTITUDE OF SUN AT 13:05:47 MDT... 71.06 DEGREES
UPPER AIR DATA FROM NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST VALID ON 07/18/2025 AT 0600 MDT
FREEZING LEVEL.................. 16206 FT MSL (10906 FT AGL)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL... 16584 FT MSL (11284 FT AGL)
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL....... 17104 FT MSL (11804 FT AGL)
LIFTED INDEX.................... -2.0
K INDEX......................... +21.3
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WIND WIND SPD LAPSE RATE CONVECTIONT THERMAL LIFT RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT DEG C DEG F INDEX FPM M/S
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -65.0 -85.0 255 26 13 0.8 0.4 M M M M M
45000 -60.9 -77.6 245 38 19 6.1 3.3 M M M M M
40000 -51.4 -60.5 235 50 26 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
38000 -47.0 -52.6 240 48 25 7.4 4.0 M M M M M
36000 -42.6 -44.7 240 45 23 7.4 4.1 M M M M M
34000 -38.0 -36.4 245 41 21 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
32000 -33.5 -28.3 245 37 19 7.6 4.2 M M M M M
30000 -28.8 -19.8 255 32 16 6.9 3.8 46.8 116.2 9.8 M M
29000 -26.8 -16.2 260 30 16 6.9 3.8 45.7 114.3 9.1 M M
28000 -24.7 -12.5 265 29 15 7.8 4.3 44.8 112.6 8.4 M M
27000 -22.4 -8.3 265 26 14 7.7 4.2 43.9 111.0 7.8 M M
26000 -20.1 -4.2 265 24 12 7.8 4.3 43.2 109.7 7.3 M M
25000 -17.8 -0.0 265 22 11 7.4 4.1 42.5 108.6 6.8 M M
24000 -15.8 3.6 260 19 10 6.7 3.7 41.3 106.4 5.8 M M
23000 -13.9 7.0 255 18 9 6.7 3.7 40.2 104.4 4.9 M M
22000 -11.9 10.6 250 16 8 6.5 3.6 39.2 102.6 4.1 M M
21000 -10.1 13.8 250 12 6 6.3 3.4 37.9 100.2 3.0 M M
20000 -8.3 17.1 240 8 4 6.3 3.4 36.7 98.0 1.9 M M
19500 -7.4 18.7 235 5 3 6.2 3.4 36.1 97.0 1.4 M M
19000 -6.4 20.5 225 4 2 6.9 3.8 35.6 96.0 0.9 M M
18500 -5.4 22.3 210 3 2 6.9 3.8 35.1 95.1 0.5 M M
18000 -4.4 24.1 190 3 2 7.1 3.9 34.6 94.3 0.0 M M
17500 -3.3 26.1 185 3 2 7.3 4.0 34.2 93.5 -0.4 1159 5.9
17000 -2.2 28.0 180 3 2 7.2 3.9 33.8 92.8 -0.7 1111 5.6
16500 -1.0 30.2 180 3 2 8.4 4.6 33.4 92.2 -1.0 1061 5.4
16000 0.2 32.4 180 3 2 8.3 4.5 33.2 91.7 -1.2 1008 5.1
15500 2.1 35.8 180 3 1 8.5 4.6 32.8 91.1 -1.5 930 4.7
15000 3.3 37.9 175 2 1 8.5 4.7 32.6 90.7 -1.8 878 4.5
14500 4.5 40.1 190 1 0 8.4 4.6 32.4 90.3 -2.0 827 4.2
14000 5.7 42.3 310 1 1 8.5 4.6 32.2 89.9 -2.3 776 3.9
13500 6.9 44.4 320 3 1 8.2 4.5 32.0 89.6 -2.6 726 3.7
13000 8.1 46.6 330 5 2 8.0 4.4 31.7 89.0 -2.9 677 3.4
12500 9.2 48.6 330 7 3 8.4 4.6 31.4 88.5 -3.3 629 3.2
12000 10.5 50.9 335 9 4 9.0 4.9 31.3 88.3 -3.4 575 2.9
11500 11.8 53.2 335 10 5 9.2 5.0 31.2 88.1 -3.6 522 2.7
11000 13.2 55.8 330 11 6 9.3 5.1 31.1 88.0 -3.7 465 2.4
10500 14.6 58.3 330 12 6 4.8 2.6 31.1 88.0 -3.7 407 2.1
10250 14.8 58.6 330 12 6 5.6 3.1 30.5 86.9 -4.3 394 2.0
10000 15.6 60.1 325 13 7 12.2 6.7 30.6 87.1 -4.2 362 1.8
9750 16.4 61.5 320 13 7 10.8 5.9 30.7 87.2 -4.1 330 1.7
9500 17.2 63.0 320 14 7 10.0 5.5 30.8 87.4 -4.0 299 1.5
9250 17.9 64.2 315 15 8 8.1 4.5 30.7 87.3 -4.1 272 1.4
9000 18.5 65.3 315 15 8 9.1 5.0 30.6 87.1 -4.2 245 1.2
8750 19.2 66.6 315 15 8 9.9 5.4 30.6 87.1 -4.2 216 1.1
8500 20.0 68.0 315 16 8 9.0 4.9 30.6 87.0 -4.3 187 1.0
8250 20.6 69.1 315 16 8 7.9 4.4 30.5 86.8 -4.4 161 0.8
8000 21.2 70.2 310 16 8 8.1 4.4 30.3 86.6 -4.5 137 0.7
7750 21.8 71.2 310 16 8 9.2 5.1 30.2 86.4 -4.7 111 0.6
7500 22.4 72.3 310 16 8 6.9 3.8 30.2 86.3 -4.8 85 0.4
7250 22.7 72.9 315 16 8 4.5 2.5 29.8 85.6 -5.2 67 0.3
7000 23.1 73.6 315 15 8 4.9 2.7 29.4 85.0 -5.6 50 0.3
6750 23.4 74.1 315 14 7 3.3 1.8 29.0 84.2 -6.0 34 0.2
6500 23.4 74.1 320 13 7 -2.1 -1.2 28.4 83.1 -6.7 25 0.1
6250 23.0 73.4 315 12 6 -6.2 -3.4 27.2 81.0 -7.9 31 0.2
6000 22.5 72.5 310 10 5 -2.1 -1.2 26.1 79.1 -9.1 36 0.2
5750 22.3 72.1 305 9 5 -8.5 -4.7 25.2 77.4 -10.1 37 0.2
5500 20.6 69.1 290 6 3 -33.5 -18.4 22.9 73.3 -12.5 79 0.4
* * * * * * NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL FORECAST DATA VALID * * * * * *
07/18/2025 AT 0900 MDT | 07/18/2025 AT 1200 MDT
|
CAPE... +161.0 LI... -1.0 | CAPE... +188.9 LI... -1.3
CINH... -102.8 K INDEX... +21.9 | CINH... -18.9 K INDEX... +27.5
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.6 -84.3 245 25 13 1.1 0.6 | -64.5 -84.1 245 27 14 1.8 1.0
45000 -60.4 -76.7 245 38 19 5.7 3.1 | -59.9 -75.8 245 44 23 5.1 2.8
40000 -51.5 -60.7 245 48 25 7.0 3.8 | -51.8 -61.2 255 58 30 7.0 3.8
38000 -47.3 -53.1 245 47 24 7.0 3.8 | -47.6 -53.7 250 60 31 7.0 3.8
36000 -43.1 -45.6 245 45 23 7.1 3.9 | -43.4 -46.1 250 63 32 7.1 3.9
34000 -38.5 -37.3 250 43 22 7.7 4.2 | -38.9 -38.0 255 58 30 7.5 4.1
32000 -33.9 -29.0 255 42 22 7.7 4.2 | -33.8 -28.8 260 51 26 8.1 4.4
30000 -29.0 -20.2 260 37 19 7.3 4.0 | -29.0 -20.2 260 46 24 8.0 4.4
29000 -26.8 -16.2 260 34 18 7.3 4.0 | -26.6 -15.9 265 44 23 8.0 4.4
28000 -24.5 -12.1 265 32 16 8.4 4.6 | -24.2 -11.6 265 41 21 7.8 4.3
27000 -22.0 -7.6 265 30 16 8.3 4.6 | -21.9 -7.4 260 39 20 7.8 4.3
26000 -19.6 -3.3 260 29 15 8.3 4.6 | -19.5 -3.1 260 37 19 7.9 4.3
25000 -17.1 1.2 260 28 14 7.3 4.0 | -17.1 1.2 260 35 18 7.2 4.0
24000 -15.4 4.3 260 24 12 5.9 3.2 | -15.2 4.6 255 31 16 6.5 3.6
23000 -13.7 7.3 255 20 10 6.1 3.3 | -13.3 8.1 255 27 14 6.6 3.6
22000 -12.0 10.4 250 17 9 6.4 3.5 | -11.3 11.7 255 24 12 6.4 3.5
21000 -10.1 13.8 245 14 7 6.4 3.5 | -9.7 14.5 255 20 10 6.0 3.3
20000 -8.2 17.2 240 12 6 6.5 3.6 | -8.0 17.6 255 16 8 6.2 3.4
19500 -7.3 18.9 235 11 6 6.5 3.6 | -7.1 19.2 250 14 7 6.3 3.4
19000 -6.3 20.7 230 10 5 6.6 3.6 | -6.3 20.7 250 13 7 6.4 3.5
18500 -5.4 22.3 225 9 4 6.6 3.6 | -5.4 22.3 250 12 6 6.4 3.5
18000 -4.4 24.1 220 7 4 6.8 3.7 | -4.5 23.9 250 11 5 6.9 3.8
17500 -3.4 25.9 215 7 3 7.0 3.8 | -3.4 25.9 245 10 5 7.3 4.0
17000 -2.3 27.9 210 6 3 7.0 3.8 | -1.8 28.8 240 9 4 7.5 4.1
16500 -1.2 29.8 210 6 3 8.1 4.5 | -0.7 30.7 240 8 4 7.5 4.1
16000 0.6 33.1 215 5 3 8.0 4.4 | 0.4 32.7 235 8 4 7.6 4.2
15500 1.8 35.2 220 5 2 8.1 4.4 | 1.5 34.7 235 8 4 8.1 4.4
15000 3.0 37.4 230 4 2 8.1 4.4 | 2.7 36.9 235 7 4 8.0 4.4
14500 4.2 39.6 245 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 3.9 39.0 235 7 3 8.5 4.7
14000 5.4 41.7 265 3 2 8.3 4.5 | 5.2 41.4 240 6 3 8.6 4.7
13500 6.5 43.7 290 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 6.5 43.7 240 4 2 8.2 4.5
13000 7.7 45.9 310 4 2 8.2 4.5 | 7.7 45.9 250 3 2 8.0 4.4
12500 8.9 48.0 330 5 3 8.6 4.7 | 8.9 48.0 265 3 1 8.4 4.6
12000 10.2 50.4 325 7 3 9.0 4.9 | 10.2 50.4 285 3 2 8.8 4.8
11500 11.5 52.7 325 8 4 8.9 4.9 | 11.5 52.7 300 4 2 9.0 5.0
11000 12.9 55.2 325 9 5 8.6 4.7 | 12.9 55.2 305 5 3 9.1 5.0
10500 14.2 57.6 325 10 5 5.2 2.9 | 14.3 57.7 310 7 3 5.7 3.1
10250 14.5 58.1 325 11 5 6.5 3.6 | 14.6 58.3 310 7 4 7.0 3.8
10000 15.3 59.5 320 11 6 11.8 6.5 | 15.4 59.7 310 7 4 12.4 6.8
9750 16.1 61.0 320 11 6 11.0 6.0 | 16.2 61.2 310 8 4 11.4 6.2
9500 16.9 62.4 320 12 6 9.1 5.0 | 17.0 62.6 310 8 4 10.0 5.5
9250 17.4 63.3 320 12 6 6.7 3.7 | 17.6 63.7 310 9 4 8.7 4.8
9000 18.0 64.4 320 12 6 8.6 4.7 | 18.3 64.9 310 9 4 10.5 5.7
8750 18.6 65.5 320 12 6 9.6 5.3 | 19.1 66.4 310 9 4 10.9 6.0
8500 19.3 66.7 320 12 6 8.8 4.8 | 19.9 67.8 310 9 4 10.8 5.9
8250 19.9 67.8 320 13 6 8.3 4.6 | 20.7 69.3 310 9 4 11.3 6.2
8000 20.5 68.9 315 13 7 8.3 4.5 | 21.5 70.7 310 9 4 10.3 5.6
7750 21.1 70.0 315 13 7 8.2 4.5 | 22.3 72.1 310 9 4 9.2 5.1
7500 21.7 71.1 315 13 7 8.0 4.4 | 23.0 73.4 310 9 4 9.6 5.2
7250 22.3 72.1 310 13 7 7.8 4.3 | 23.7 74.7 310 9 4 9.6 5.3
7000 22.9 73.2 310 13 7 7.8 4.3 | 24.4 75.9 310 9 4 9.5 5.2
6750 23.4 74.1 310 13 7 6.5 3.6 | 25.1 77.2 310 8 4 10.0 5.5
6500 23.8 74.8 305 13 7 4.3 2.3 | 25.9 78.6 310 8 4 11.2 6.1
6250 24.0 75.2 305 11 6 4.4 2.4 | 26.8 80.2 310 8 4 12.5 6.8
6000 24.2 75.6 300 10 5 2.0 1.1 | 27.6 81.7 310 8 4 9.7 5.3
5750 24.3 75.7 290 7 4 6.2 3.4 | 28.4 83.1 310 8 4 13.7 7.5
5500 25.3 77.5 285 5 3 22.0 12.1 | 30.0 86.0 310 8 4 29.5 16.2
07/18/2025 AT 1500 MDT | 07/18/2025 AT 1800 MDT
|
CAPE... +231.4 LI... -1.4 | CAPE... +384.3 LI... -1.6
CINH... -12.7 K INDEX... +29.5 | CINH... -52.1 K INDEX... +29.9
|
HEIGHT TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE | TEMPERATURE WND WNDSPD LAPSE RATE
FT MSL DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT | DEG C DEG F DIR KT M/S C/KM F/KFT
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
50000 -64.9 -84.8 240 29 15 1.4 0.8 | -64.5 -84.1 250 33 17 1.2 0.7
45000 -60.3 -76.5 240 45 23 5.8 3.2 | -60.3 -76.5 250 49 25 5.7 3.1
40000 -51.4 -60.5 250 56 29 6.7 3.7 | -51.4 -60.5 250 62 32 6.9 3.8
38000 -47.3 -53.1 250 60 31 6.7 3.7 | -47.2 -53.0 250 63 33 6.9 3.8
36000 -43.3 -45.9 250 64 33 6.8 3.8 | -43.1 -45.6 250 65 33 7.0 3.8
34000 -38.9 -38.0 255 58 30 7.4 4.1 | -38.8 -37.8 250 60 31 7.1 3.9
32000 -33.9 -29.0 255 51 26 8.1 4.4 | -34.0 -29.2 250 55 28 8.2 4.5
30000 -29.1 -20.4 255 46 24 8.0 4.4 | -29.0 -20.2 245 47 24 8.5 4.6
29000 -26.7 -16.1 260 44 22 8.0 4.4 | -26.4 -15.5 245 43 22 8.5 4.7
28000 -24.3 -11.7 260 42 21 8.0 4.4 | -24.0 -11.2 245 39 20 7.2 3.9
27000 -22.0 -7.6 260 41 21 8.0 4.4 | -21.9 -7.4 250 36 19 7.3 4.0
26000 -19.6 -3.3 260 40 20 8.1 4.4 | -19.7 -3.5 255 34 17 7.3 4.0
25000 -17.3 0.9 265 39 20 7.8 4.3 | -17.6 0.3 265 32 16 7.7 4.2
24000 -15.1 4.8 260 34 18 7.4 4.1 | -15.3 4.5 265 30 16 7.9 4.4
23000 -13.0 8.6 260 30 15 7.5 4.1 | -13.0 8.6 265 28 15 8.0 4.4
22000 -10.8 12.6 260 25 13 6.4 3.5 | -10.7 12.7 260 27 14 6.6 3.6
21000 -9.3 15.3 260 21 11 5.4 3.0 | -9.0 15.8 260 23 12 5.9 3.2
20000 -7.7 18.1 260 17 9 5.4 3.0 | -7.3 18.9 255 19 10 5.9 3.2
19500 -6.9 19.6 260 16 8 5.4 3.0 | -6.5 20.3 250 17 9 6.1 3.3
19000 -6.0 21.2 260 14 7 6.7 3.7 | -5.5 22.1 250 15 8 7.6 4.2
18500 -5.0 23.0 260 13 7 6.6 3.6 | -4.4 24.1 255 14 7 7.6 4.2
18000 -4.0 24.8 265 11 6 6.9 3.8 | -3.4 25.9 255 12 6 6.7 3.7
17500 -2.5 27.5 260 10 5 7.1 3.9 | -2.5 27.5 250 11 6 6.3 3.5
17000 -1.4 29.5 255 9 4 7.6 4.1 | -1.6 29.1 245 10 5 6.4 3.5
16500 -0.3 31.5 255 8 4 7.9 4.3 | -0.4 31.3 240 10 5 8.4 4.6
16000 0.9 33.6 250 7 3 7.9 4.3 | 0.8 33.4 230 9 5 8.3 4.5
15500 2.0 35.6 250 5 3 7.9 4.3 | 2.6 36.7 215 9 5 8.4 4.6
15000 3.1 37.6 245 4 2 7.9 4.3 | 3.9 39.0 205 9 5 8.4 4.6
14500 4.3 39.7 245 3 2 8.3 4.6 | 5.1 41.2 200 8 4 8.2 4.5
14000 5.5 41.9 250 3 1 8.3 4.5 | 6.3 43.3 195 8 4 8.2 4.5
13500 6.8 44.2 255 2 1 8.9 4.9 | 7.6 45.7 190 7 4 8.6 4.7
13000 8.1 46.6 265 3 1 9.1 5.0 | 8.9 48.0 185 6 3 8.7 4.8
12500 9.5 49.1 275 3 1 9.1 5.0 | 10.2 50.4 180 6 3 9.1 5.0
12000 10.8 51.4 275 3 2 9.2 5.0 | 11.6 52.9 180 4 2 9.2 5.1
11500 12.2 54.0 275 3 2 9.4 5.1 | 12.9 55.2 175 3 2 8.9 4.9
11000 13.6 56.5 275 4 2 9.4 5.2 | 14.2 57.6 175 2 1 8.3 4.5
10500 15.0 59.0 275 4 2 5.8 3.2 | 15.5 59.9 180 1 0 4.0 2.2
10250 15.3 59.5 280 4 2 7.0 3.9 | 15.6 60.1 180 1 0 5.7 3.1
10000 16.2 61.2 280 4 2 12.7 7.0 | 16.5 61.7 000 0 0 12.5 6.9
9750 17.0 62.6 280 4 2 11.6 6.4 | 17.3 63.1 340 1 0 11.4 6.3
9500 17.9 64.2 280 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 18.1 64.6 345 2 1 8.9 4.9
9250 18.6 65.5 280 4 2 9.1 5.0 | 18.6 65.5 340 2 1 6.5 3.6
9000 19.4 66.9 280 4 2 10.4 5.7 | 19.2 66.6 340 3 2 9.1 5.0
8750 20.1 68.2 275 5 2 10.8 5.9 | 19.9 67.8 340 4 2 9.7 5.3
8500 20.9 69.6 275 5 2 10.3 5.6 | 20.6 69.1 340 5 2 8.9 4.9
8250 21.7 71.1 275 5 2 9.9 5.4 | 21.2 70.2 340 6 3 8.2 4.5
8000 22.4 72.3 275 5 3 9.8 5.4 | 21.8 71.2 340 7 3 8.7 4.8
7750 23.1 73.6 275 5 3 9.7 5.3 | 22.5 72.5 340 7 4 8.9 4.9
7500 23.9 75.0 275 5 3 10.3 5.6 | 23.1 73.6 340 8 4 7.9 4.3
7250 24.6 76.3 275 5 3 11.1 6.1 | 23.7 74.7 340 9 5 7.0 3.8
7000 25.4 77.7 275 5 3 9.9 5.5 | 24.2 75.6 340 10 5 8.1 4.5
6750 26.1 79.0 275 5 3 8.6 4.7 | 24.8 76.6 340 11 6 9.9 5.5
6500 26.8 80.2 275 5 3 10.4 5.7 | 25.6 78.1 340 11 6 9.6 5.3
6250 27.7 81.9 275 6 3 12.5 6.8 | 26.2 79.2 335 11 6 9.0 4.9
6000 28.5 83.3 275 6 3 9.7 5.3 | 26.9 80.4 335 11 6 9.2 5.1
5750 29.3 84.7 275 6 3 13.1 7.2 | 27.6 81.7 335 12 6 12.1 6.7
5500 30.8 87.4 275 6 3 27.7 15.2 | 28.7 83.7 335 11 5 16.9 9.3
________________________________________________________________________________
THIS PRODUCT IS ISSUED TWICE PER DAY, ONCE BY APPROXIMATELY 0630 MST/0730 MDT
(1330 UTC) AND AGAIN BY APPROXIMATELY 1830 MST/1930 MDT (0130 UTC). IT IS NOT
CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED NOR UPDATED AFTER ITS INITIAL ISSUANCE.
THE INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS BASED ON RAWINSONDE OBSERVATION AND/OR
NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION MODEL DATA TAKEN NEAR THE OLD STAPLETON
AIRPORT SITE IN DENVER, COLORADO AT
NORTH LATITUDE: 39 DEG 46 MIN 5.016 SEC
WEST LONGITUDE: 104 DEG 52 MIN 9.984 SEC
ELEVATION: 5285 FEET (1611 METERS)
AND MAY NOT BE REPRESENTATIVE OF OTHER AREAS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE
COLORADO ROCKY MOUNTAINS. NOTE THAT SOME ELEVATIONS IN NUMERICAL WEATHER
PREDICTION MODELS DIFFER FROM ACTUAL STATION ELEVATIONS, WHICH CAN LEAD TO
DATA WHICH APPEAR TO BE BELOW GROUND. ERRONEOUS DATA SUCH AS THESE SHOULD
NOT BE USED.
THE CONTENT AND FORMAT OF THIS REPORT AS WELL AS THE ISSUANCE TIMES ARE SUBJECT
TO CHANGE WITHOUT PRIOR NOTICE. COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS ARE WELCOME AND SHOULD
BE DIRECTED TO ONE OF THE ADDRESSES OR PHONE NUMBERS SHOWN AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS
PAGE. TO EXPEDITE A RESPONSE TO COMMENTS, BE SURE TO MENTION YOUR INTEREST IN
THE SOARING FORECAST.
DEFINITIONS:
CAPE (CONVECTIVE AVAILABLE POTENTIAL ENERGY) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE
ENERGY AVAILABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT, ALSO KNOWN AS THE POSITIVE
AREA ON A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. LARGER
VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
STRONGER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, INCLUDING THUNDERSTORMS. VALUES AROUND OR
GREATER THAN 1000 SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOP.
CINH (CONVECTIVE INHIBITION) - AN INTEGRATED MEASURE OF THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY
NEEDED TO INITIATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY, ALSO KNOWN AS THE NEGATIVE AREA ON
A THERMODYNAMIC DIAGRAM. UNITS ARE JOULES PER KILOGRAM. THE MORE NEGATIVE
THIS NUMBER, THE MORE ENERGY IS REQUIRED TO INITIATE CONVECTION. THIS
INHIBITIVE ENERGY CAN BE OVERCOME THROUGH SURFACE HEATING, COOLING ALOFT,
LIFTING MECHANISMS (OROGRAPHIC, FRONTAL, GRAVITY WAVES, ETC.)
CONVECTIVE CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE SATURATION MIXING RATIO IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS,
IF HEATED SUFFICIENTLY FROM BELOW, WILL RISE DRY ADIABATICALLY UNTIL IT
JUST BECOMES SATURATED. IT ESTIMATES THE BASE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS THAT ARE
PRODUCED BY SURFACE HEATING ONLY.
CONVECTION TEMPERATURE (CONVECTIONT) - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE
THE AIRMASS DRY ADIABATIC UP TO THE GIVEN LEVEL. IT CAN BE CONSIDERED A
"TRIGGER TEMPERATURE" FOR THAT LEVEL.
FREEZING LEVEL - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE TEMPERATURE IS ZERO DEGREES CELSIUS.
HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER - THE HEIGHT (BETWEEN 12,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE
MEAN SEA LEVEL) WHERE THE SMALLEST LAPSE RATE EXISTS. THE LOCATION AND
EXISTENCE OF THIS FEATURE IS IMPORTANT IN THE GENERATION OF MOUNTAIN
WAVES.
K INDEX - A MEASURE OF STABILITY WHICH COMBINES THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN APPROXIMATELY 5,000 AND 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, THE AMOUNT
OF MOISTURE AT APPROXIMATELY 5,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE, AND A MEASURE
OF THE DRYNESS AT APPROXIMATELY 10,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE. LARGER
POSITIVE NUMBERS INDICATE MORE INSTABILITY AND A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ONE INTERPRETATION OF K INDEX VALUES REGARDING
SOARING IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES IS GIVEN IN WMO TECHNICAL NOTE 158
AND IS REPRODUCED IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
BELOW -10 NO OR WEAK THERMALS
-10 TO 5 DRY THERMALS OR 1/8 CUMULUS WITH MODERATE THERMALS
5 TO 15 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS
15 TO 20 GOOD SOARING CONDITIONS WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
20 TO 30 EXCELLENT SOARING CONDITIONS, BUT INCREASING
PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ABOVE 30 MORE THAN 60 PERCENT PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS
LAPSE RATE - THE CHANGE WITH HEIGHT OF THE TEMPERATURE. NEGATIVE VALUES INDICATE
INVERSIONS.
LIFTED CONDENSATION LEVEL - THE HEIGHT TO WHICH AN AIR PARCEL POSSESSING THE
AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000 FEET OF THE AIRMASS AND THE FORECAST
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE MUST BE LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY TO ATTAIN SATURATION.
LIFTED INDEX (LI) - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AT A
LEVEL APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE THE SURFACE AND THE TEMPERATURE OF
AN AIR PARCEL LIFTED DRY ADIABATICALLY FROM THE SURFACE TO ITS LIFTED
CONDENSATION LEVEL AND THEN PSEUDOADIABATICALLY THEREAFTER TO THIS SAME
LEVEL. THE PARCEL'S INITIAL TEMPERATURE IS THE FORECAST MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE AND ITS DEW POINT IS THE AVERAGE DEW POINT IN THE LOWEST 4000
FEET OF THE AIRMASS. NEGATIVE VALUES ARE INDICATIVE OF INSTABILITY WITH
POSITIVE VALUES SHOWING STABLE CONDITIONS.
LIFT RATE - AN EXPERIMENTAL ESTIMATE OF THE STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT IS
COMPUTED THE SAME WAY AS THE MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT BUT USES THE ACTUAL
LEVEL RATHER THAN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS IN THE CALCULATION.
ALSO, NONE OF THE EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS BASED ON CLOUDINESS AND K-INDEX
ARE APPLIED TO THESE CALCULATIONS.
MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS - THE HEIGHT WHERE THE DRY ADIABAT THROUGH THE
FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE INTERSECTS THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE.
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT - AN ESTIMATE OF THE MAXIMUM STRENGTH OF THERMALS. IT
IS COMPUTED FROM AN EMPIRICAL FORMULA WHICH COMBINES THE EXPECTED MAXIMUM
HEIGHT OF THERMALS WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN THE MAXIMUM HEIGHT OF THERMALS AND THE TEMPERATURE 4,000 FEET
ABOVE THE GROUND. AFTER THIS COMPUTATION, FURTHER EMPIRICAL ADJUSTMENTS
ARE MADE BASED ON THE VALUE OF THE K-INDEX AND THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF
MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE TIME OF TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
MIDDLE/HIGH CLOUDS - THE AMOUNT AND OPACITY OF MIDDLE (ALTOSTRATUS, ALTOCUMULUS)
OR HIGH (CIRRUS, CIRROSTRATUS, CIRROCUMULUS) CLOUDS. BROKEN MEANS THAT
BETWEEN 60% AND 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD, WITH OVERCAST
CONDITIONS OCCURRING WHEN MORE THAN 90% OF THE SKY IS COVERED BY THE CLOUD.
THIN IMPLIES THAT THE CLOUDS ARE PREDOMINANTLY TRANSPARENT, MEANING THAT
SOME SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND, IN CONTRAST TO OPAQUE WHICH SUGGESTS
THAT LITTLE SUNLIGHT IS REACHING THE GROUND.
POTENTIAL HEIGHT OF WAVE - THE MINIMUM OF THE FOLLOWING TWO HEIGHTS:
1. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND DIRECTION CHANGES BY 30 DEGREES OR MORE
2. LEVEL ABOVE THE HEIGHT OF STABLE LAYER (OR 14,000 FEET IF NONE EXISTS)
WHERE THE WIND SPEED NO LONGER INCREASES WITH HEIGHT
PVA/NVA - POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (PVA)/NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION (NVA)
ON THE 500 MILLIBAR ISOBARIC SURFACE (APPROXIMATELY 18,000 FEET ABOVE MEAN
SEA LEVEL). WEAK PVA HAS BEEN SHOWN TO ASSIST IN MOUNTAIN WAVE SOARING.
SOARING WINDOW - THE TIME BETWEEN THE TIME THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE IS REACHED
AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT.
THERMAL INDEX - THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE AND THE
TEMPERATURE AT A PARTICULAR LEVEL DETERMINED BY FOLLOWING THE DRY ADIABAT
THROUGH THE FORECAST MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE UP TO THAT LEVEL. NEGATIVE VALUES
ARE INDICATIVE OF THERMAL LIFT.
THERMAL SOARING INDEX - AN ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) BASED ON THE
COMPUTED MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT, AND THE WIND SPEED AND MIDDLE AND HIGH
CLOUD COVER EXPECTED DURING THE SOARING WINDOW (THE TIME OF THE TRIGGER
TEMPERATURE AND THE TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT) ACCORDING TO THE FOLLOWING:
MAXIMUM RATE OF LIFT ADJECTIVE RATING
>= 800 FPM EXCELLENT
>= 400 AND < 800 FPM GOOD
>= 200 AND < 400 FPM FAIR
< 200 FPM POOR
TIME OF OVERDEVELOPMENT - THE TIME ONE OR MORE OF THE FOLLOWING PHENOMENA,
WHICH ESSENTIALLY SHUT OFF THERMAL LIFT, IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR:
1. FORMATION OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER
2. FORMATION OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS DOWNBURSTS
3. INITIATION OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
TIME OF TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE TIME THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED TO
REACH THE TRIGGER TEMPERATURE.
TRIGGER TEMPERATURE - THE SURFACE TEMPERATURE REQUIRED TO MAKE THE FIRST 4000
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE DRY ADIABATIC.
WAVE SOARING INDEX - AN EMPIRICAL, ADJECTIVE RATING (FOR SAILPLANES) WHICH
ATTEMPTS TO COMBINE A VARIETY OF PHENOMENA IMPORTANT IN MOUNTAIN WAVE
SOARING INTO A SINGLE INDEX NUMBER. OBJECTIVE POINTS ARE ASSIGNED TO
THESE PHENOMENA: WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION AT 14,000 FT MSL, THE STATIC
STABILITY IN THE 12,000-18,000 FT MSL LAYER, THE WIND SPEED GRADIENT ABOVE
THE STABLE LAYER, JET STREAM LOCATION AND FRONTAL AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVEMENTS.
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