054
FXUS65 KBOU 250528
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1128 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WITH ONE INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
- HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING ISSUES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING.
- HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING, WITH A PLUME OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE ON
TRACK TO SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM NM THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING SIMILAR
CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING'S SHOWER AND
STORM POTENTIAL, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SOME LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL ONCE AGAIN. WHILE WINDS ALOFT INCREASE SLIGHTLY
TODAY UNDER A MODEST SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST FACING JET, WINDS IN
THE CLOUD LAYER WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT (5-25 KTS). WITH THE
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT (MAINLY FOR THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA), THERE WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR
VALUES TO SEE A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOP COMPARED TO YESTERDAY,
WITH A FEW CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS AND HAIL.
GUIDANCE GENERALLY KEEPS THE GREATER, YET STILL MODEST, 0-6 KM
SHEAR VALUES TOWARDS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR
AND ADJACENT PLAINS, SO LEANING TOWARDS THESE AREAS HAVING THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SLIGHTLY MORE ORGANIZATION TO OCCUR.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN YESTERDAY AS WELL, SO
EXPECT SLIGHTLY LARGER HAIL GROWTH POTENTIAL, WITH HAIL UP TO 1"
IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER STORMS. THE LATEST HREF HAS
DECREASED ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS MORNING, SHOWING
POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH A FEW BULLSEYES OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER (~2.5"). AFTER
YESTERDAY'S EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS HELPING TO SATURATE SOILS IN
AREAS ALONG THE PALMER DIVIDE, THIS REMAINS THE AREA OF MAIN
CONCERN (OUTSIDE OF OUR BURN SCARS AND TYPICAL FLOOD-PRONE AREAS)
FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL TODAY.
THINGS BEGIN TO DRY OUT FRIDAY, AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WEST PUTS
COLORADO UNDER BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THERE WILL STILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN PLACE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, WITH SOME HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR THE
PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY
OUTFLOWS WITH DCAPE VALUES SURPASSING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BY SATURDAY, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AS 700 MB
TEMPERATURES WARM TO 20C UNDER THE PERSISTENT RIDGE AND PWAT
VALUES DROP TO NEAR 65-75% OF NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ANY
SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL REMAIN ANCHORED TO THE
MOUNTAINS, AND AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PLAINS. THE HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE BEGINNING
OF NEXT WEEK, MAKING FOR ANOTHER HOT WEEKEND. SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
THE DRIEST DAY OF THE WEEK AS ENSEMBLES SHOW PWAT VALUES DROPPING
TO 40 TO 50% BEFORE THEY START TO INCREASE SLOWLY AGAIN MONDAY. BY
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURN FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1122 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
FOR WINDS, SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
GRADUALLY ROTATE MORE WESTERLY AFTER SUNRISE BEFORE SETTLING WITH
PREDOMINANTLY NE WINDS CLOSER TO MIDDAY. SE PREVAILING WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE FAVORED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON, BUT WILL LIKELY
BE OUTFLOW-DRIVEN AT TIMES. POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AT THE
TERMINALS WILL BE REDUCED COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, JUST 20-30%,
BUT WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER OPPORTUNITY FOR GUSTY OUTFLOWS ~02-22Z
FOR THE DENVER AREA, WILL RETAIN THE PROB30 FOR NOW TO COVER THE
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION-INDUCED WINDS UP TO 35 KTS. EXPECT A
RETURN TO TYPICAL DRAINAGE WINDS IN THE EVENING.
FINALLY, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A MODEST INCREASE IN SMOKE ALOFT BY
THE AFTERNOON. IT'S TOUGH TO REALLY GAUGE THE EXTENT OR IMPACT OF
IT, BUT SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN SLANTWISE VISIBILITY CAN'T BE
ENTIRELY RULED OUT.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...BONNER
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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