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FXUS65 KBOU 252100
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
300 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW WEAK SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
MOUNTAINS AND URBAN CORRIDOR; SLIGHTLY STRONGER WITH GREATER
COVERAGE OVER THE PLAINS INTO THIS EVENING.
- HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOCALLY ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK?
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A BROAD DENVER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT BASED OFF TDEN/KFTG Z/V PRODUCTS
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO A PRETTY
WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG WITH THIS
CIRCULATION, WITH LOW 30S DEW POINTS AT DEN/APA WHILE THE NORTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR (FNL/GXY) STILL HAVE MID 50S TDS IN THE BETTER
DEFINED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAS BEEN MUCH
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WHICH ISN'T TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE GIVEN THE DECREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND IN LARIMER COUNTY,
BUT THERE'S STILL SOME MODEST MLCIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ALL THAT SAID, WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST OF OUR CONVECTION DISORGANIZED.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WORKING BACK INTO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FOR A FEW
GUSTY/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH EVEN
DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY. LOW TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE RETURNING BACK TO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WETTING RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ECME
PROBQPF > 0.10" NEAR 40-70% ACROSS THE CWA. WE'LL SEE HOW GUIDANCE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LEGITIMATE
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME GOOD RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. MAIN CONCERN IS IMPACTS
FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND PERHAPS A
BRIEF PERIOD OF -TSRA LATER TODAY. CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE
WIDELY SCATTERED COMPARED TO THE LAST COUPLE DAYS, BUT A PROB30
STILL SEEMS REASONABLE AT THIS POINT. THERE ALSO COULD BE SOME
OCCASIONAL IMPACTS FROM SMOKE ALOFT... WITH BRIEF REDUCTIONS IN
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD GENERALLY TURN TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON, BEFORE
DRAINAGE WINDS ESTABLISH THIS EVENING INTO TOMORROW MORNING. A
SIMILAR WIND PATTERN IS EXPECTED AGAIN DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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