169
FXUS65 KBOU 260035
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
635 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE PLAINS UNTIL MID
EVENING.
- HOTTER AND DRIER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH
LOCALLY ELEVATED TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- MOISTURE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK?
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
A BROAD DENVER CYCLONE IS EVIDENT BASED OFF TDEN/KFTG Z/V PRODUCTS
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THERE'S ALSO A PRETTY
WELL-DEFINED DIFFERENCE IN SURFACE MOISTURE ALONG WITH THIS
CIRCULATION, WITH LOW 30S DEW POINTS AT DEN/APA WHILE THE NORTHERN
I-25 CORRIDOR (FNL/GXY) STILL HAVE MID 50S TDS IN THE BETTER
DEFINED EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW. MEANWHILE, CONVECTION HAS BEEN MUCH
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS, WHICH ISN'T TOO MUCH OF A SURPRISE GIVEN THE DECREASING
MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION. THERE'S BEEN A LITTLE MORE ROBUST
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS AND IN LARIMER COUNTY,
BUT THERE'S STILL SOME MODEST MLCIN ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. ALL THAT SAID, WE STILL EXPECT ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD INTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT A MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORM OR TWO BUT THE LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY
KEEP MOST OF OUR CONVECTION DISORGANIZED.
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN
CONUS THIS WEEKEND, WITH A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS WORKING BACK INTO
THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE LEFT FOR A FEW
GUSTY/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY, WITH EVEN
DRIER CONDITIONS LIKELY BY SUNDAY. LOW TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST
SATURDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 90S LIKELY SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
RIDGING WILL BREAK DOWN BY EARLY TO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK, WITH A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE RETURNING BACK TO OUR AREA BY TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY. THERE'S FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR WETTING RAINFALL
ACROSS THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, WITH ECME
PROBQPF > 0.10" NEAR 40-70% ACROSS THE CWA. WE'LL SEE HOW GUIDANCE
TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE A LEGITIMATE
CHANCE OF SEEING SOME GOOD RAINFALL ALONG AND EAST OF THE FRONT
RANGE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 633 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2025
WILL KEEP THE PROB30 FOR OUTFLOW WINDS AND -TSRA THROUGH 02Z.
MODELS POINT TO NORMAL DRAINAGE WINDS AT DIA LATER THAN NORMAL
OVERNIGHT. NOT TOTALLY CONVINCED THAT WILL PAN OUT. ONCE THE AREA
CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SETTLE DOWN, WE WILL
GET A BETTER PICTURE. THERE WILL BE NO CEILING ISSUES.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION.....RJK
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