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FXUS65 KBOU 262356
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
556 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SOME VIRGA AND SPOTTY WEAK SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE FOR THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES.
- HOT AND DRY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY, WITH SIGNS OF
A NOTABLY WETTER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
WE'VE SEEN OUR FIRST FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
DENVER METRO OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 35-40
MPH NOTED NEAR BOULDER. IT'S DRY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEN
RECENTLY REPORTING A T/TD OF 97/29F... AND UNSURPRISINGLY THERE
IS LITTLE INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS. FURTHER EAST, SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, AND THERE'S BEEN A COUPLE ATTEMPTS AT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM LINCOLN INTO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. OUR THOUGHTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVEN'T CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
MAINLY GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST WHERE THERE'S BETTER INSTABILITY. CAN'T
RULE OUT A MICROBURST OR TWO PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER IF A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THERE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 597DAM ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE WELL-POSITIONED FOR
HEAT, WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVERLAPPING WITH THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MONDAY COULD SEE A FEW 100F HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS... WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING 99-100F TEMPERATURES FOR DEN. MAIN
QUESTION MARK IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH. DID THINK ABOUT
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR A BIT BUT ULTIMATELY DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED
IT'S SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT'S STILL A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO GET INTO MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF ANY
SPECIFIC DAYS. LIKEWISE, IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT HOW MUCH RAINFALL
COULD FALL, BUT GFS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE 75TH PERCENTILE TOTAL QPF
FALLS NEAR 1.5-1.75" (0.9-1.25") THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EITHER
WAY, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A PRETTY FAVORABLE PATTERN TO END THE
MONTH OF JULY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 536 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CAMS HAVE
CONTINUED TO INDICATE WEAK CONVECTION LASTING THROUGH THE EVENING
DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND NORTHEAST FLOW, SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE PROB30 THROUGH 02Z FOR ALL TAF SITES. WITH DECENT
DCAPE, MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BE GUSTY WINDS UP TO
35 KTS. AS CONVECTION TRAVELS EAST THIS EVENING, WINDS SHOULD
RETURN TO DRAINAGE.
TOMORROW, LIGHT WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN E/SE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE (<30%) FOR VIRGA/HIGH-BASED SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON,
WHICH WOULD CAUSE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS. HOWEVER, DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE, HAVE KEPT IT OUT OF THE TAF FOR NOW.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...IDEKER
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