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FXUS65 KBOU 271737
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1137 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY, WITH SIGNS OF
A NOTABLY WETTER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 139 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2025
WE'VE SEEN OUR FIRST FEW HIGH-BASED SHOWERS DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN
DENVER METRO OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO, WITH A FEW GUSTS OF 35-40
MPH NOTED NEAR BOULDER. IT'S DRY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH DEN
RECENTLY REPORTING A T/TD OF 97/29F... AND UNSURPRISINGLY THERE
IS LITTLE INSTABILITY NOTED ON THE SPC MESOANALYSIS AND ACARS
SOUNDINGS. FURTHER EAST, SURFACE DEW POINTS REMAIN IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S, AND THERE'S BEEN A COUPLE ATTEMPTS AT MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE INITIATION ALONG A WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AXIS
STRETCHING FROM LINCOLN INTO WASHINGTON COUNTIES. OUR THOUGHTS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING HAVEN'T CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH
MAINLY GUSTY SHOWERS ACROSS THE I-25 CORRIDOR, WITH A COUPLE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER EAST WHERE THERE'S BETTER INSTABILITY. CAN'T
RULE OUT A MICROBURST OR TWO PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS
LATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER IF A STRONGER
STORM OR TWO CAN DEVELOP THERE.
RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A BIT MORE FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
WITH 500MB HEIGHTS NEAR 597DAM ACROSS MOST OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
CONUS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE CWA WILL BE WELL-POSITIONED FOR
HEAT, WITH THE VERY DRY AIRMASS OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
OVERLAPPING WITH THE MID-LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AXIS. TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY SHOULD REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.
MONDAY COULD SEE A FEW 100F HIGHS ACROSS THE PLAINS... WITH
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE FAVORING 99-100F TEMPERATURES FOR DEN. MAIN
QUESTION MARK IS THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD COVER THAT
AFTERNOON WITH MOISTURE INCREASING JUST A TOUCH. DID THINK ABOUT
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR A BIT BUT ULTIMATELY DON'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE
AT THIS LEAD TIME.
AS WE GET TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK, GUIDANCE HAS MAINTAINED
IT'S SIGNAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. IT'S STILL A
LITTLE TOO FAR AWAY TO GET INTO MORE SPECIFIC DETAILS OF ANY
SPECIFIC DAYS. LIKEWISE, IT'S HARD TO PINPOINT HOW MUCH RAINFALL
COULD FALL, BUT GFS (ECMWF) ENSEMBLE 75TH PERCENTILE TOTAL QPF
FALLS NEAR 1.5-1.75" (0.9-1.25") THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. EITHER
WAY, THIS DOES LOOK TO BE A PRETTY FAVORABLE PATTERN TO END THE
MONTH OF JULY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA, AND SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING MONDAY
MORNING. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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