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FXUS65 KBOU 272049
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
249 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGH FIRE DANGER IN
THE HIGH COUNTRY.
- AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN FOR TUESDAY, WITH SIGNS OF
A NOTABLY WETTER PATTERN INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY, INCLUDING
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
IT'S BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND DEFINITELY HAS
BEEN WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE ILIFF COAGMET STATION RECENTLY
HITTING 101F. DEN SITS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE DAILY
RECORD (96F, RECORD 98F) AT THE TIME OF THIS AFD... AND WITH A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO GO IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAKE A RUN TO A 98/99F HIGH LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE IS
MUCH QUIETER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE NOTED ON SATELLITE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE A
FEW GUSTY SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE'S SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY, BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE STORY WON'T CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH SOME 100F HIGHS LIKELY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AT BEST, AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MAY CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S ACROSS THE DENVER METRO.
THE PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT CONSIDERABLY AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S), THERE'S GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT WE'LL SEE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY (>1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) ALONG WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE
FLOW, FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE'S
STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONS MARKS ABOUT HOW LONG WE'LL SEE ONE QUICK
ROUND OF STORMS BEFORE WE EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY, OR IF WE'D
MANAGE 2 OR 3 DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN/STORMS. BOTH NBM AND WPC QPF
SUGGEST THE LATTER OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, THOUGH OUR FORECAST IS
A LITTLE MORE SKEPTICAL. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THIS POINT...
WITH ONLY MODEST PROBABILITIES (10-30%) OF >0.10" OF QPF FOR
MIDDLE/NORTH PARK.
THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND AS WE APPROACH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSER TO 90F NEXT WEEKEND. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION, SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY LIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA, AND SHOULD SHIFT TO THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST WITH A MODEST
INCREASE IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRAINAGE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT, WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS RETURNING MONDAY
MORNING. NO CEILING OR VISIBILITY CONCERNS ARE ANTICIPATED.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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