686
FXUS65 KBOU 281730
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1130 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- HOT AND DRY TODAY, WITH SOME VIRGA AND VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AROUND IN THE AFTERNOON.
- COOLER, WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PATTERN LIKELY TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY, PARTICULARLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 955 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2025
TODAY'S FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. DELAYED POPS MIDDAY GIVEN
VIRTUALLY NO CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT VIA GOES-E AT 10 AM LOCAL TIME.
ALSO DECREASED POPS OVERALL FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO BELOW 10 PERCENT
FOR THE AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF DENVER GIVEN THE DRY LOW-LEVELS
AND THE FACT THAT THERE WILL BE SOME STABILIZING CLOUDS NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS MID AFTERNOON. VIRGA AND GUSTY WINDS, AS ADVERTISED
EARLIER, WILL BE ALL OVER THE PLACE. MEASURABLE PRECIP NOT SO
MUCH. TEMPERATURE ARE ON TRACK AND WE DO NOT THINK 100 WILL BE HIT
ACROSS METRO DENVER. 700 MB TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND
18-19 DEGC, WHICH NORMALLY MEANS NO 100 IN DENVER. PLUS, THERE
WILL BE VERY HIGH BASED CONVECTIVE CLOUDS AROUND STARTING EARLY
AFTERNOON, WHICH ALSO TENDS TO PREVENT 100 FROM HAPPENING. FURTHER
EAST ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS, FAR FROM ANY EARLY CLOUD COVER,
IT WILL EASILY TOP 100 FROM GREELEY EAST TO FORT MORGAN,
STERLING, HOLYOKE, AND JULESBURG.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 226 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2025
IT'S BEEN A QUIET DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND DEFINITELY HAS
BEEN WARM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS HAVE LARGELY BEEN
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S, WITH THE ILIFF COAGMET STATION RECENTLY
HITTING 101F. DEN SITS JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES SHY OF THE DAILY
RECORD (96F, RECORD 98F) AT THE TIME OF THIS AFD... AND WITH A
COUPLE MORE HOURS OF HEATING TO GO IT'S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION WE
MAKE A RUN TO A 98/99F HIGH LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE, SATELLITE IS
MUCH QUIETER THAN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS, WITH ONLY SHALLOW CUMULUS
ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE NOTED ON SATELLITE. IT'S POSSIBLE WE SEE A
FEW GUSTY SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FOOTHILLS WHERE
THERE'S SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY, BUT OTHERWISE QUIET WEATHER
SHOULD PREVAIL.
THE STORY WON'T CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR MONDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE STRENGTHENS A BIT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD END UP NEAR OR A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY, WITH SOME 100F HIGHS LIKELY
ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WHILE SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS
LIMITED AT BEST, AN INCREASE IN MID/UPPER MOISTURE SHOULD LEAD TO
AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND MAY CAP TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
90S ACROSS THE DENVER METRO.
THE PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT CONSIDERABLY AS WE GET INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. A GOOD PLUME OF MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA
BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY, WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S OVER THE PLAINS. EVEN WITH
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES (HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S), THERE'S GOOD
AGREEMENT ACROSS ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE THAT WE'LL SEE SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY (>1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE) ALONG WITH DEEPENING UPSLOPE
FLOW, FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THERE'S
STILL SEVERAL QUESTIONS MARKS ABOUT HOW LONG WE'LL SEE ONE QUICK
ROUND OF STORMS BEFORE WE EXHAUST THE INSTABILITY, OR IF WE'D
MANAGE 2 OR 3 DAYS OF HEAVY RAIN/STORMS. BOTH NBM AND WPC QPF
SUGGEST THE LATTER OF THESE TWO SOLUTIONS, THOUGH OUR FORECAST IS
A LITTLE MORE SKEPTICAL. UNFORTUNATELY, MOST OF THIS MOISTURE
LOOKS TO REMAIN EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AT THIS POINT...
WITH ONLY MODEST PROBABILITIES (10-30%) OF >0.10" OF QPF FOR
MIDDLE/NORTH PARK.
THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND AS WE APPROACH THE
END OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING
CLOSER TO 90F NEXT WEEKEND. THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME
MOISTURE LINGERING IN THE REGION, SO ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1130 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2025
VFR TODAY WITH HOT TEMPERATURES AND VIRGA EXPECTED NEAR ALL THE
TERMINALS AFTER MID AFTERNOON. IT IS UNLIKELY TS OR -RA OCCUR,
BUT THERE IS A DECENT CHANCE OF STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING
BECAUSE OF VIRGA. WE DIDN'T INCLUDE ANYTHING IN THE TAF YET
BECAUSE IT WOULD BE HAD TO PIN DOWN TIMING AND DEFINITELY
DIRECTION. THE OPTION WAS INCLUDE TEMPO FOR VRB20G35KT BUT OVERALL
FELT THE CHANCES WERE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF.
NE WINDS 8-13KT SHOULD BE THE NORM INTO THE EVENING HOURS IF VIRGA
DOESN'T RESULT IN ERRATIC AND GUSTY WINDS. TONIGHT A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06/07Z WITH A WIND SHIFT TO
THE NORTH. THERE IS A 10-15% CHANCE OF STRATUS PER THE LATEST NBM,
BUT GIVEN IT'S NOT THAT MOIST IN A DEEP LAYER FOR NOW WILL JUST
HANDLE WITH FEW020 AT DEN AND SCT020 AT APA AND BJC. WE'LL MONITOR
CLOSELY THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FRONT.
POST FRONTAL AIRMASS ON TUESDAY WILL HAVE PLENTY OF MOISTURE FOR
AFTERNOON -TSRA AFTER 20Z. UNTIL THEN, WINDS SHOULD BE EAST
10-14KT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...SCHLATTER
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...SCHLATTER
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