032
FXUS65 KBOU 271128
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
528 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BURN AREA FLASH FLOODING AND
STREET/LOWLAND FLOODING WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.
- GRADUAL DRYING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BUT STILL AT LEAST
SCATTERED STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
- WARMER AND DRIER BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 416 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
LIKE A BROKEN RECORD... WE'RE DEALING WITH AREAS OF MORNING
STRATUS AND FOG, AND WILL HAVE SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE CWA BY
THIS AFTERNOON.
FOG/MIST HAVE SETTLED INTO THE WESTERN I-25 CORRIDOR, FROM ROUGHLY
BROOMFIELD TO FORT COLLINS/GREELEY. GUIDANCE DRIFTS THIS A LITTLE
FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE
IT LIFTS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S BY
THE EARLY AFTERNOON... ALLOWING FOR 750-1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THE LEFT EXIT
REGION OF A MODEST JET STREAK TO WORK WITH, EXPECT WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH COUNTRY EARLY IN
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SPREADING INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT
PLAINS. GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL SEE ONE
OR TWO ORGANIZED CLUSTERS GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. THOUGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ARE A LITTLE SHALLOWER
(4500-5500FT), SKINNY CAPE PROFILES ALONG WITH MODEST STORM
MOTIONS (LCL-EL MEAN WIND NEAR 20KT) SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT
RAINFALL.
HREF MAXIMUM 6HR QPF PEAKS AROUND 2-3", WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
(ASSUMING 1.5-2"/HR RATES) ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS. IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING
CONCERNS, MAINLY OVER THE BURN AREAS. SOME THREAT WOULD EXTEND
INTO THE PLAINS, ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE TO DEVELOP ON ANY
SORT OF STATIONARY/CONVERGENT BOUNDARY.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
AND WE COULD SEE MORE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP CLOSER TO THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ACTIVE PATTERN STILL LOOKS TO CONTINUE THURSDAY, WITH
A GRADUAL DRYING TREND AS WE GET TO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED PRETTY MUCH AS
EXPECTED, AND ARE NOW ATTEMPTING TO SPREAD/FORM EAST ONTO THE
I-25 CORRIDOR AND NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS. WE'LL ALSO SEE
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AS
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE/LEFTOVER CONVECTIVE VORTEX IS NOTED LIFTING
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEST CENTRAL COLORADO. THIS FEATURE SHOULD
EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AND SHEAR, BUT KEEP A SECOND ROUND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. THE AIRMASS IS
QUITE MOIST, WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER (PW) VALUES NEAR 1.15" ALONG
THE I-25 CORRIDOR, AND 140-170% OF NORMAL FORECAST AREA-WIDE, SO
ANY OF THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY
RAIN. SEE HYDROLOGY DISCUSSION SECTION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
MOST STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE AS THEY ATTEMPT TO MOVE EAST
INTO A MORE HOSTILE CONVECTIVE ENVIRONMENT ON THE EASTERN PLAINS.
FOR WEDNESDAY, WE'LL LIKELY START OFF WITH PATCHY FOG AND AREAS OF
STRATUS. THIS WILL OFFER UP FORECAST CHALLENGES AGAIN WITH REGARD
TO INSTABILITY, BUT AT THE SAME TIME ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED
TO WORK ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. THE CAP IS ADVERTISED TO BE
RELATIVELY WEAK, JUST LIKE TODAY, SO ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE EC HAS THE
EMBEDDED JET STREAM FARTHER SOUTH, WHICH MEANS WE'D BE IN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION FOR THE HIGHEST COVERAGE. HOWEVER, THE GFS WAS A
LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WITH THE SPEED MAX AND INSTEAD OF HAVING
UPWARD FORCING COULD ACTUALLY BE WEAKLY SUBSIDENT AND SUGGEST
LOWER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE. WE'LL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE EC
SOLUTION BUT THERE'S STILL NO GUARANTEE OF RAIN/STORMS AS WE'VE
SEEN THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS.
THURSDAY SHOULD BE ANOTHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE LIKELY ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE RIDGE, AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STAYING HIGH.
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, WE'D EXPECT A GRADUAL DECREASE IN
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AS THE FLOW ALOFT TILTS MORE WESTERLY AND
STARTS TO DRY. IT WAS INTERESTING THE SEE THE EC ENSEMBLES WERE
HOLDING PRECIPITABLE WATER IN LONGER IN CONTRAST TO THE GEFS.
WE'LL KEEP AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS IN THE FORECAST.
FURTHER DRYING IS MORE CONFIDENT TO OCCUR SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS OCCURS AS NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS IN RESPONSE TO
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THE FLOW WILL STILL BE SUBJECT TO WEAK SHORTWAVES AND
BACKDOOR COOL FRONTS SLOWING ANY WARMING TREND INTO NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD,
BUT SLOWLY WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 522 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2025
LIFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z AT THE
TERMINALS. VISIBILITY AT DEN HAS QUICKLY DECREASED OVER THE LAST
HALF HOUR, PER OBS AND THEIR WEBCAM... AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING. HRRR SEEMS TO
HAVE A PRETTY GOOD HANDLE ON WHERE THE DENSER FOG IS AT THE
MOMENT AND ITS SOLUTION HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT OVERNIGHT... SO
THE TAF IS HEAVILY WEIGHTED TOWARDS THAT IN THE FIRST 6 HOURS OR
SO.
STILL LOOKS LIKE WE'LL SEE A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
MORNING, BEFORE CONVECTION REDEVELOPS EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.
FORECAST LCLS ARE ROUGHLY 4000-5000FT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT WE MAY
SEE SOME BRIEF CEILING/VISBY RESTRICTIONS AROUND STRONGER STORMS.
DIDN'T HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO CHANGE THE PROB30 AND WILL HOPE FOR
A BETTER SENSE OF TIMING BY THE NEXT UPDATE.
TONIGHT'S FOG POTENTIAL IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. GIVEN
RELATIVELY POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE IN THE 18-30HR WINDOW THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS, ONLY WENT WITH A HEDGE TO VCFG SCT001 FOR NOW.
HYDROLOGY
ISSUED AT 251 PM MDT TUE AUG 26 2025
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL REMAIN HIGH NEAR 1.15-1.25" AND
140-170% OF NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PEAK IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
WEDNESDAY. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL BE NEAR 5,000-6,000 FEET DEEP,
LEADING TO MORE EFFICIENT RAIN PROCESSES. STORM MOTIONS WILL
LIKELY BE SLOWEST TODAY PER OVERALL WIND PROFILES, WITH SPEEDS OF
10-18 MPH THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT INCREASING SLIGHTLY TO 15-22
MPH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING 1-2" OF RAIN IN 30-45 MINUTES, WHICH MEANS BURN SCARS
WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING, BUT ALSO SOME
FLOODING CONCERNS TO URBAN/LOWLAND AREAS SHOULD STRONGER STORMS
OCCUR DOWN INTO THE I-25 CORRIDOR AND ADJACENT PLAINS.
THERE IS SOME THREAT OF STRONGER STORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
GIVEN AN UPTICK IN INSTABILITY. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
THE SLIGHTLY FASTER STORM MOTIONS MAY OFFSET THE HIGHER INTENSITY.
STILL SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON, HOWEVER, AS THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING THE HIGHER END RAIN RATES
MENTIONED ABOVE.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...HIRIS
DISCUSSION...BARJENBRUCH
AVIATION...HIRIS
HYDROLOGY....BARJENBRUCH
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