144
FXUS65 KBOU 091745
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1145 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- CHANCE OF A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING.
- CONTINUED ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. BETTER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
- WARM WEATHER CONTINUES ALL WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT COOLDOWN THIS
WEEKEND?
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 442 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY IS THAT MORE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL
BE AVAILABLE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS, AND THUS A CHANCE OF A
COUPLE SEVERE STORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LURKS JUST TO THE EAST OF
THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT SHOULD GET A SLIGHT
NUDGE WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THE LEE
SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE FORECAST TO
STRENGTHEN, AND ACTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MODEST HODOGRAPH PROFILES.
THERE ARE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IN THE LATEST CAMS, BUT MOST
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING AS THE INITIAL HIGH BASED
WEAKER CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOVES EAST INTO THE MORE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IT APPEARS AREAS ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF A LINE
FROM FORT MORGAN TO LIMON WILL SEE MLCAPE VALUES UP TO 1000-1200
J/KG GIVEN THE TDS LURKING TO THE EAST, AND THAT WOULD ALSO BE IN
THE MORE WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE STORMS AND THAT SEEMS REASONABLE, WITH A COUPLE STORMS
BEING CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. WE
INCREASED POPS SLIGHTLY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
GIVEN THE MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND HIGHER STORM POTENTIAL.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 235 PM MDT MON SEP 8 2025
THERE'S A FEW SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT IT'S GENERALLY
BEEN QUIET ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT EAST. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, BUT THERE'S VERY LITTLE
CAPE TO WORK WITH DEW POINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S.
TOMORROW SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SIMILAR TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ATTEMPTS TO DEVELOP. THERE'S A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
TO WORK WITH, BUT MOST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DOESN'T PRODUCE
MUCH MORE THAN WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE A BIT AS WE GET INTO THE
MID/LATE PART OF THE WEEK, AS AN UPPER TROUGH STALLS OVER THE
OR/ID/NV REGION AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT
PLAINS. GUIDANCE HAS ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION (PWAT
STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ~1 SIGMA), AND THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED
CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY. EACH DAY WOULD FEATURE BETTER
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH LOWER
CHANCES ALONG AND EAST OF I-25. THERE ISN'T A PARTICULARLY STRONG
SIGNAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ON ANY DAY, BUT THE BEST MOISTURE
APPEARS TO BE EITHER THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES DURING THE
PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LIKELY IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S.
THE TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES BY THIS WEEKEND, LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY COOLER/DRIER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA AS WE START TO SEE MORE ZONAL FLOW. THERE
IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE OVERALL PATTERN, BUT GIVEN THE
COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE/NORTH
AMERICA, IT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISING TO SEE A FAIRLY LARGE SHIFT AS
WE GET THROUGH THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT TUE SEP 9 2025
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS ARE
CURRENTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE BUT SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TO MORE OF A
LIGHT EASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STILL LOOKS LIKE A
MODEST THREAT OF VARIABLE/GUSTY WINDS FROM HIGH-BASED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING,
AND THE PROB30S WERE NOT CHANGED.
DRAINAGE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING, WITH WINDS
TURNING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN LATE TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION AND A WEAK DENVER CYCLONE WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
NEAR OR AFTER 18Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...BARJENBRUCH
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...HIRIS
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