189
FXUS65 KBOU 111725
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1125 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT FEW
DAYS, WITH HIGHER CHANCES OF RAINFALL BY FRIDAY OR SATURDAY.
- VERY WARM TODAY, WITH ANOTHER 90F DAY POSSIBLE ON THE PLAINS AND
I-25 CORRIDOR. COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT WED SEP 10 2025
IT'S A WARM ONE OUT THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST
OF THE DENVER METRO HAVE MADE IT INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
DEN RECENTLY HIT 90F, AND WE'VE ALSO SEEN THAT NUMBER AT CENTRAL
PARK (90F), AND THE ARSENAL RAWS (92F), AND KBKF/KCFO/KBJC ALONG
WITH NUMEROUS UNOFFICIAL STATIONS. WITH ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO OF
POTENTIAL WARMING, WE'LL SEE IF WE MANAGE ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO OF
WARMING ACROSS THE METRO. MEANWHILE, A FEW WEAK SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON, THOUGH GIVEN THE DRY AIRMASS AND MEAGER
INSTABILITY, COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED.
THE FORECAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD, AS A LARGE UPPER TROUGH AXIS DRIFTS
FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH BETTER
MOISTURE ALSO SLOWLY STREAMING INTO THE REGION. MOST GUIDANCE
KEEPS THE BETTER MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN COLORADO, AND IT'S
NO SURPRISE THE BETTER POPS/QPF ARE ACROSS OUR MOUNTAINS AND WEST
INTO THE GJT FORECAST AREA. A FEW STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW WITH SOME OVERLAP OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MLCAPE... BUT
THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD/ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS LOW.
AS THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD, WE SHOULD SEE AT
LEAST ONE OR TWO SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND TRACK
ACROSS COLORADO. THERE'S STILL A DECENT AMOUNT OF SPREAD ACROSS
GUIDANCE, WITH THE GFS/GEFS ON THE FASTER SIDE AND THE VARIOUS
ECMWF PRODUCTS A TOUCH SLOWER. WHETHER FRIDAY OR SATURDAY WOULD BE
THE FAVORED DAY FOR RAIN ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS STILL UP
IN THE AIR, BUT THERE IS STILL BROAD AGREEMENT THAT WE'LL MANAGE
ONE DAY OF DECENT (>40%) CHANCES OF RAIN FOR THE DENVER METRO. THE
TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD ALSO IN SOME SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES,
ALTHOUGH "COOLER" IN THE CASE WILL JUST MEAN "NEAR NORMAL" WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.
MODEL SOLUTIONS SLOWLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AS WE GET INTO NEXT WEEK,
WITH LESS CONSISTENCY HANDLING A FAIRLY COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN. THERE'S BROAD AGREEMENT FOR A BRIEF WARMUP TO START NEXT
WEEK, BUT DETAILS BEYOND THAT ARE MUCH MORE HAZY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1125 AM MDT THU SEP 11 2025
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE MAIN TIME BEING 21Z
TO 01Z. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS TO 35 KNOTS WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER
STORMS WITH A WIND SHIFT OR TWO LIKELY. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS. WILL SEE A TRANSITIONS TO
TYPICAL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DRAINAGE WINDS THIS EVENING, AFTER 02Z.
ON FRIDAY, MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH A GOOD AMOUNT OF
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE INSTABILITY. CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS INCREASE, BUT WITH THE LIMITED INSTABILITY WILL GO WITH
A PROB30 FOR THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING AT 20Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...MEIER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page