277
FXUS65 KBOU 140537
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1137 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING,
WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY
NORTH SUNDAY MORNING.
- UNSETTLED, UNCERTAIN PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER UTAH WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO. OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO, SBCAPE HAS
REACHED 300-800 J/KG (MORE THAN YESTERDAY). LIFT FROM THE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT MOST/ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB- SEVERE. BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND
WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS COLORADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
MERGES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. COLORADO WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT DRY WESTERLY FLOW
MONDAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTHWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY. TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON
A SOLUTION. THEY ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE FILTERS IN UNDER THE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1133 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SUSTAIN ADDITIONAL
OPPORTUNITIES FOR -SHRA OR -TSRA THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT THERE
IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR THE TERMINALS. THE
PRIMARY OPPORTUNITY FOR CIGS 040-060 AND CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR ~11-15Z, BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY +/- 2 HRS OUTSIDE OF THAT
WINDOW CERTAINLY CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY FAVOR A W AND NW DIRECTION THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD BE LIGHT (<10 KTS) IN NATURE. THERE WILL BE INCREASED
POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED NW GUSTS AFTER 11Z, PARTICULARLY FOR KDEN
AND IN THE VICINITY OF ANY CONVECTIVE SHOWERS. WIND DIRECTION
BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN FOR THE AFTERNOON PERIOD, AND MAY OSCILLATE
BETWEEN NE AND SE BEFORE AN EVENTUAL RETURN TO DRAINAGE FLOW IN
THE EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page