360
FXUS65 KBOU 141122
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
522 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY, MAINLY NORTH OF I-70, WITH A
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
- UNSETTLED, UNCERTAIN PATTERN FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT SAT SEP 13 2025
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
OVER UTAH WITH SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD
OF IT OVER WESTERN COLORADO. OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO, SBCAPE HAS
REACHED 300-800 J/KG (MORE THAN YESTERDAY). LIFT FROM THE TROUGH
COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEAST COLORADO
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CAN'T RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO, BUT MOST/ALL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SUB- SEVERE. BEST CHANCE FOR A SEVERE STORM WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS. THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTH OF COLORADO TONIGHT AND
WILL BE OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE TROUGH TRACKS
ACROSS COLORADO. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL BE
WRAP AROUND SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW TOWARDS SUNRISE
SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWERS SLOWLY COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY MORNING AND MAY LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
NORTHEAST CORNER. HIGHS SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO.
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST LIFTS NORTHWARD AND
MERGES WITH THE LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. COLORADO WILL SEE A SOMEWHAT DRY WESTERLY FLOW
MONDAY AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. THIS WILL BRING WARMER
TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO
THE NORTH PUSHES SOUTHWARD BRINGING A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TUESDAY. TROUGHINESS REMAINS OVER THE AREA INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS.
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, MODELS ARE STARTING TO CONVERGE ON
A SOLUTION. THEY ARE SHOWING RIDGING DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
REGION THURSDAY. THE RIDGE INTENSIFIES INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY
OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DRY
CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE LOW, BUT WE COULD SEE A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IF ENOUGH MOISTURE FILTERS IN UNDER THE
RIDGE.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 519 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2025
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. AN AREA OF -SHRA OVER THE NORTHERN FOOTHILLS LOOKS TO PUSH
SE THROUGH THE MORNING AND APPROACH DENVER AREA TERMINALS. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE DISORGANIZED WITH TIME, SO
CONFIDENCE IN TERMINAL IMPACTS IS LOW. OPTED FOR PROB30 FOR
NORTHERNMOST TERMINALS TO COVER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF -SHRA AND
CIGS 045-060 FOR A FEW HOURS STARTING 16Z. THIS IS ALSO THE WINDOW
DURING WHICH A FEW ENHANCED NW GUSTS 20-25 KTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE, ANTICIPATE STANDARD DIURNAL WIND PATTERNS WITH A
CLOCKWISE ROTATION TO SE WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AND SOUTHERLY
DRAINAGE FLOW LATER THIS EVENING.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...MEIER
AVIATION...RODRIGUEZ
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