486
FXUS65 KBOU 100946
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
346 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS RETURN FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY, MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS
LOW.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 344 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM
THE WEST, BUT LOW LEVELS REMAIN FAIRLY DRY EXCEPT FOR RICHER
MOISTURE RIGHT ALONG THE EASTERN BORDER. THIS WILL LIKELY HINDER
ANY RAIN FROM WEAK CONVECTION IN THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PARTS OF THE
DAY. FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED FOR BETTER TIMING OF POPS, WITH A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON,
WITH LOW POPS REACHING THE I-25 CORRIDOR LATER IN THE DAY, AND
MAINLY OVERNIGHT ON THE PLAINS. ALSO A BIT MORE CLOUD COVER
SOONER.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 PM MDT THU OCT 9 2025
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWS CLOUDS BUILDING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, AS MOISTURE INCREASES AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING, MAINLY FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT
LIGHT SHOWERS SPILLING ONTO ADJACENT PLAINS. HAVE INCREASED POPS
THIS EVENING.
BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST PUSHES THE
500-MB RIDGE EASTWARD. MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
PRISCILLA WILL BE ADVECTED INTO COLORADO, WITH PWAT VALUES ABOVE
THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND 200-300% OF NORMAL. THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL STAY SOUTHWEST OF OUR CWA, AS THE MOUNTAINS TO
OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BLOCK MOST OF THE MOISTURE ADVECTION. HOWEVER,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT BOTH DAYS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN, WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON.
700-MB TEMPS WILL STAY ABOVE 0 DG C, SUPPORTING SNOW LEVELS ABOVE
10K FT.
FOR THE PLAINS, THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND SATURDAY MORNING. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FROM AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH FORCING FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS. IN TERMS
OF TEMPERATURES, EXPECT DAILY HIGHS TO BE 5-8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND. A FEW SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE FRIDAY'S
HIGH TEMPERATURES TO BE IN THE HIGH 70S. HOWEVER, WITH THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER, HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
BY SUNDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE EASTWARD AS
FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE WESTERLY. WITH CROSS-BARRIER FLOW, GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND OROGRAPHIC RAIN/SNOW ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR THE PLAINS, A COLD FRONT WILL TRAVERSE THE
AREA IN THE AFTERNOON, BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT FOR
MONDAY.
FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK, BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RETURN
AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
THERE IS STILL A WIDE VARIABILITY IN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS IN TERMS
OF TRACK AND INTENSITY. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING
TOWARDS THE LOW STAYING WEST OF OUR AREA, DUE TO A RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES, ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1230 AM MDT FRI OCT 10 2025
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED AFTER 21Z
FRIDAY, WITH A 20% CHANCE OF VARIABLE WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KNOTS.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WIND DIRECTION AT KDEN, WITH A 20%
CHANCE OF A DENVER CYCLONE BOUNDARY RESULTING IN NORTHERLY WINDS
AFTER 18Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
UPDATE...GIMMESTAD
DISCUSSION...MAI
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
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