937
FXUS65 KBOU 122353
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
553 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE MONDAY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND PLAINS.
- MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS
THE AREA MON THRU MON NIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE
FLOW WILL BRING A CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WITH A CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NERN PLAINS MAINLY
LATE MON AFTN AND NIGHT.
ON TUE, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTO
WRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY TUE NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS THE
FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME MORE SSW. CROSS-SECTIONS SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THRU TUES NIGHT SO DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
FROM WED THRU WED NIGHT, AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
GRADUALLY DEVELOP FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT BASIN, AS A
SIGNIFICANT PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES NORTHEAST FROM THE MAIN UPPER
LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MAINLY DRY SSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
AREA THRU WED AFTN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU, THE SRN PORTION OF THE ELONGATED UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS NRN CO. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A BETTER
CHC OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. OVER THE
PLAINS A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE IN BY THU MORNING BRINGING IN COOLER
TEMPERATURES. QG FIELDS SHOW SOME ASCENT THRU THE AFTN WHICH MAY
ALLOW FOR A CHC OF RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE PLAINS.
FOR FRI THRU SAT, THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND
GFS. SAT THE GFS HAS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVE EAST OF THE AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES. MEANWHILE, THE ECMWF
HAS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN FRI NIGHT
AND THEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SAT. AS A RESULT, THIS WOULD BRING A
CHC OF PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. AT
THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE BLENDED SOLUTION WHICH IS MAINLY DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 553 PM MDT SUN OCT 12 2025
ONE OF THE STRONGEST AND MOST CONCENTRATED ANTICYCLONES I CAN
REMEMBER OVER DENVER IS FINALLY BREAKING DOWN AS ANOTHER
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE PUSHES BACK ACROSS THE TAF SITES. WE'LL SEE
MORE EASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL WITH 12-22 KT GUSTS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z. THEN WINDS GRADUALLY RELAX AND TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
THROUGH 06Z. WE DON'T THINK WE'LL RETURN TO OUR NORMAL SSW
OVERNIGHT WITH THE FORECASTED PRESSURE GRADIENTS, SO EXPECT A MORE
SSE WIND TO PERSIST THROUGH NOT ONLY THE REST OF TONIGHT BUT MUCH
OF MONDAY. WE SHOULD BEND EVER SO SLIGHTLY BACK TO THE SE AFTER
15-18Z TOMORROW, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS MUCH OF THE DAY AT LEAST AT
KDEN AND KAPA. KBJC WILL LIKELY (70% CHANCE) SEE A MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW DEVELOP BY 20-21Z AS A WEAK CYCLONE DEVELOPS, BUT ONLY A
SLIGHT (20%) CHANCE THAT THIS FEATURE DISRUPTS THE SE FLOW AT
KDEN AND KAPA.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE WILL SEE A MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECK AS LOW AS 6,000-7,000 FT AGL AT TIMES, BUT
OVERALL CEILINGS SHOULD STAY GENERALLY ABOVE 9,000-10,000 FT.
ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURS THROUGH MONDAY FOR A VCSH, WHICH
WOULD MOST LIKELY ONLY BE A SPRINKLE OR TWO AFTER 22Z MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM MDT MONDAY FOR COZ038-042-043.
DISCUSSION...63
AVIATION...20
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