566
FXUS65 KBOU 132343
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
543 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.
- TURNING WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TOMORROW, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
LIKELY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK - COINCIDING
WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER 700MB TEMPERATURES
(NEAR 10-12C) - WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S. A
FEW SPOTS IN THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME LOW 80S. DESPITE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THERE SHOULDN'T
BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTO OUR CWA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOST PART IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, PERHAPS WITH SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STILL,
THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FAIRLY LIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
BY THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, AND COULD ALSO BRING SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (MAINLY PARK RANGE) IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN A STRONG
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS INTO THE REGION, THOUGH THERE ARE FAIRLY
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH. EITHER WAY, THAT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WOULD BRING US BACK TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE MOSTLY WIND. A COOL OUTFLOW SURGE
HAD TURNED WINDS MORE ENE AT KDEN LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
BOUNDARY IS NOW WORKING BACK NORTHWARD AND SHOULD GRADUALLY WORK
IT'S WAY ACROSS KDEN 00Z-01Z WITH WINDS TURNING MORE SE-SSE WITH
GUSTS TO AROUND 18 KTS. ONCE THOSE MORE SOUTHERLY WINDS ESTABLISH
THEMSELVES, THEY SHOULD STICK AROUND FOR THE EVENING HOURS. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS STILL ON TRACK FOR 06Z-10Z, BUT THESE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY BRIEF AND SCATTERED. WE DO THINK CEILINGS WILL
LOWER SUFFICIENTLY DURING THEIR PASSAGE FOR IMC, BUT THAT'S DURING
THE VERY QUIET AIR TRAVEL HOURS.
THE OTHER CONCERN LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING WILL BE FOR
STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT. WHILE A DENVER CONVERGENCE VORTICITY
ZONE (DCVZ) IS EXPECTED TO FORM, THE ARRIVAL OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (OUTSIDE OF ANY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS) APPEARS TO BE LATE
ENOUGH TO KEEP KDEN'S THREAT OF FOG OR LOW IFR CEILINGS ON THE LOW
SIDE (10-20% CHANCE). WE DO THINK MUCH HIGHER PROBABILITIES WOULD
EXIST ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE TOWARD KCOS, AND ALSO ALONG THE
WYOMING BORDER.
THE NEXT CHALLENGE WILL BE WINDS TUESDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO
DEVELOPMENT OF THAT DCVZ/SHEAR ZONE. THIS ONE HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO DEVELOP/STALL OVER OR VERY NEAR KDEN-KAPA 18Z-02Z. IF IT DOES,
THE NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE NORTH SIDE AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE
SOUTHERN FLANK MEANS DIFFICULT LANDING CONFIGURATIONS. THIS IS
SOMETHING THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. FOR THE DETERMINISTIC
TAF, WE FEEL NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY AT KDEN,
WHILE SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE A HIGHER PROBABILITY AT KAPA.
CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO MONITOR THROUGH SUBSEQUENT TAFS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...20
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