498
FXUS65 KBOU 140637
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1237 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- SCATTERED RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
- MAINLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
- PRECIPITATION CHANCES RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW IN THE HIGHER
MOUNTAINS.
- TURNING WARMER AND DRIER AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 238 PM MDT MON OCT 13 2025
A WEAK SHORTWAVE SHOULD RACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT, WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WE SHOULD QUICKLY
CLEAR BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TOMORROW, WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
LIKELY IN THE CONTINUED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
A LARGE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT FROM THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA
COAST INTO CENTRAL UTAH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, WITH THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK - COINCIDING
WITH THE STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW AND WARMER 700MB TEMPERATURES
(NEAR 10-12C) - WITH HIGHS LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPPER 70S. A
FEW SPOTS IN THE PLAINS MAY SEE SOME LOW 80S. DESPITE THE
APPROACHING TROUGH, MOISTURE IS FAIRLY LIMITED AND THERE SHOULDN'T
BE MUCH MORE THAN A FEW LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO WYOMING FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING, WITH ONE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH INTO OUR CWA SOMETIME ON THURSDAY. GUIDANCE FOR THE
MOST PART IS IN AGREEMENT THAT THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF SHOT OF
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS, PERHAPS WITH SOME UPSLOPE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. STILL,
THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH ALONG WITH THE BRIEF
PERIOD OF FAVORABLE LIFT WILL KEEP ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
FAIRLY LIGHT.
THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD LIFT WELL INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
BY THIS WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, AND COULD ALSO BRING SOME OROGRAPHIC
SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS (MAINLY PARK RANGE) IF
ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS IN THE AREA. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE REGION SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH A GOOD SIGNAL FOR ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES.
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK, MOST GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN A STRONG
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AXIS INTO THE REGION, THOUGH THERE ARE FAIRLY
LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING/STRENGTH. EITHER WAY, THAT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WOULD BRING US BACK TO COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES, ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SOME RAIN AND SNOW INTO THE
REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1231 AM MDT TUE OCT 14 2025
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. CEILINGS MAY DROP AS LOW AS 5000 FEET WITH A
BATCH OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE DENVER AREA BETWEEN 07Z AND
10Z.
A DENVER CYCLONE CIRCULATION WILL STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY, WITH THE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY BETWEEN KDEN AND KAPA. THERE WILL BE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY AND WHETHER KDEN WILL
HAVE NORTH OR SOUTH WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIOS ARE EITHER
NORTH WINDS THROUGH THE DAY, OR A SHIFT TO SOUTH WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHANCE (30%) THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL LINGER
NEAR KDEN CAUSING SOME DIFFICULTIES IN SHORT TERM WIND FORECASTS
BETWEEN 18Z AND 00Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...HIRIS
AVIATION...GIMMESTAD
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