527
FXUS65 KBOU 080041
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
541 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS.
- STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY.
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH THAT IS OVER COLORADO.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINLY MOVE TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO
BUT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER LATE TONIGHT. THE AFFECTS OF
THIS TROUGH ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS (MOSTLY VIRGA) ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVING
SAID THAT, THE MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ONLY
1-4" OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER IMPACT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE IS TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND
COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS, GUSTS WILL
REACH 50 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS CLOSE TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
STAYING ABOVE 16%, NO RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ISSUED.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
A WHILE. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN US FOR ALL OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. DENVER HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING 6 STRAIGHT DAYS OF
HIGHS IN THE 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE WITHIN REACH AS MOST RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN DENVER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 10-20% EACH DAY. IF THERE ARE ANY DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT MOST DAYS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD
BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 448 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
A FEW WEAK BOUNDARIES HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE TAF SITES EARLY
THIS EVENING LEAVING SLIGHTLY ENHANCED NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS KDEN/KAPA. WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE SPEEDS WEAKEN
ALONG WITH A GRADUAL SHIFT BACK TOWARDS THE WNW BY AROUND 2Z AT
KDEN. HOWEVER, THERE IS ALWAYS A CHANCE THAT DIURNAL WINDS TAKE
HOLD AND WE SEE A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST INSTEAD. EITHER WAY,
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO PREVENT IMPACTS. THERE ARE A FEW
UNCERTAINTIES WITH WHAT WINDS WILL DO BETWEEN 2-6Z, AS THERE IS
ABOUT A 10-15% CHANCE THAT WE SEE A FEW HOURS OF ENHANCED WINDS
ONCE AGAIN (BETWEEN 2-4Z) WITH WNW GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS AT KDEN, AND
ABOUT A 30-40% CHANCE THAT LIGHT WINDS TRY TO TURN TOWARDS
DRAINAGE (SW) BETWEEN 4-6Z BEFORE TURNING BACK TO THE WNW AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN 7-9Z AT WHICH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
FOR A FEW HOURS, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25-30 KTS POSSIBLE. WITH THE
NORTHERLY WINDS COMES THE CONCERN FOR LOW STRATUS MOVING OVER THE
TAF SITES IN THE MORNING. AT THIS TIME, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW,
BUT IF STRATUS WERE TO BECOME AN ISSUE, WE WOULD START TO SEE THIS
MOVE IN BY 9Z, WITH POTENTIAL OF DROPPING CIGS BELOW 1,000'.
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL STRATUS IN THE MORNING, THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR AN ANTICYCLONE TO FORM ACROSS THE TAF SITES BY
THE AFTERNOON. THIS COULD DISRUPT THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN, BUT FOR
NOW, WE ARE EXPECTING TO SEE WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE FRONT, BEFORE MAKING A TURN "AROUND THE CLOCK" TO THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...9
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