021
FXUS65 KBOU 081133
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
433 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY WITH GUSTS UP
TO 50 MPH. THIS WILL LEAD TO NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS.
- RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 245 PM MST FRI NOV 7 2025
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MONTANA
WITH AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAM TO THE SOUTH THAT IS OVER COLORADO.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAINLY MOVE TO THE NORTH OF COLORADO
BUT WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST CORNER LATE TONIGHT. THE AFFECTS OF
THIS TROUGH ARE ALREADY EVIDENT IN OUR FORECAST AREA AS RADAR
SHOWS SHOWERS (MOSTLY VIRGA) ENTERING THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHERN PLAINS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SPRINKLE OR TWO OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY TONIGHT WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HAVING
SAID THAT, THE MOISTURE VALUES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH AND ONLY
1-4" OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
ANOTHER IMPACT THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE IS TO BRING STRONG WINDS AND
COOLER AIR BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
ACROSS THE PLAINS ON SATURDAY. AS FOR THE STRONG WINDS, GUSTS WILL
REACH 50 MPH MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS CLOSE TO THE
NEBRASKA BORDER. THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS WILL ALSO SEE GUSTS
AROUND 50 MPH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL LEAD
TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BUT WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY
STAYING ABOVE 16%, NO RED FLAG WARNINGS WERE ISSUED.
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS IN THE TEENS IN SPOTS
ACROSS THE PLAINS AND SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF THE MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS. SUNDAY WILL BE THE LAST BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR
A WHILE. HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS.
A SIGNIFICANT RIDGE ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN US FOR ALL OF
NEXT WORK WEEK. DENVER HAS A CHANCE OF SEEING 6 STRAIGHT DAYS OF
HIGHS IN THE 70S FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE FOLLOWING SATURDAY.
RECORD HIGHS MAY BE WITHIN REACH AS MOST RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 70S IN DENVER. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO
BETWEEN 10-20% EACH DAY. IF THERE ARE ANY DAYS WITH WIND GUSTS
ABOVE 25 MPH, A RED FLAG WARNING WILL HAVE TO BE ISSUED. THE GOOD
NEWS IS THAT MOST DAYS WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTIONS COULD
BE TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 AM MST SAT NOV 8 2025
A COLD FRONT RECENTLY PUSHED THROUGH BRINGING A NORTHEAST WIND
SHIFT. WINDS WILL SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE THROUGH 13-14Z, BRIEFLY
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AT DEN AND APA. AS NORTHERLY WINDS MIX DOWN,
WINDS WILL FLIP TO THE NORTH 15-17Z. FEW TO SCATTERED MID CLOUDS
HAVE FORMED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH AN OCCASIONAL CEILING OF 7000 TO
10000 FEET NORTHWEST OF DENVER. A FEW LOWER CLOUDS OF 1000 TO 3000
FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 16Z. DON'T BELIEVE THERE'S ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR MORE THAN A FEW LOW CLOUDS, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A
LOWER CEILING (~10-20% CHANCE).
NORTH WINDS TO 30 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT DEN THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON, 21-22Z, AND THEN SLOWLY TURN CLOCKWISE. BY 00Z SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL BE WEAK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WIND DIRECTION AT
DEN AS AN ANTI-CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM BRINGING LIGHTER
SOUTHEAST WINDS TO BJC. THERE'S ABOUT A 25 PERCENT CHANCE THESE
WEAKER WINDS DEVELOP AT DEN VERSUS THE GUSTIER NORTH WINDS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS DEVELOPING CLOSE TO
12Z SUNDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...DANIELSON
AVIATION...12
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