844
FXUS65 KBOU 100523
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1023 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALL WEEK.
- A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS.
- AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDING
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS COLORADO. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AT JET LEVEL
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
CWA AND THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN SPEED.
THE QG FIELDS POINT TO VERY WEAK OR NO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EITHER. WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THICKNESS FIELDS POINT TO DAILY HIGHS GETTING 10 TO
15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEING SET THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS; MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO THE WARMTH, DRYNESS AND FAIRLY
BREEZY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY INCREASES AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN
COLORADO BORDER 00Z SATURDAY, THEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
MID DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
CWA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN EARLY SUNDAY BUT THEN DECREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
VFR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. MID LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF WYOMING OVERNIGHT BRINGING A CEILING
AROUND 12,000 FEET. TYPICAL SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS HAVE SET IN
AT APA AND DEN AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID MONDAY MORNING
(15-16Z). AFTER THIS LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF
MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...12
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