617
FXUS65 KBOU 101739
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1039 AM MST MON NOV 10 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ALL WEEK.
- A FEW HOURS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE PLAINS.
- AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR MOST AREAS.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 155 PM MST SUN NOV 9 2025
MODELS SHOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AND BECOME NORTHWESTERLY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS UPPER RIDING
MOVES SLOWLY EASTWARD TOWARDS COLORADO. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AT JET LEVEL
SPEEDS OF 30 TO 50 MPH. BY WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE
CWA AND THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE IN SPEED.
THE QG FIELDS POINT TO VERY WEAK OR NO SYNOPTIC SCALE ENERGY OVER
THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE QPF FIELDS SHOW NO
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT EITHER. WILL KEEP
THE DRY WEATHER GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THICKNESS FIELDS POINT TO DAILY HIGHS GETTING 10 TO
15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL MUCH OF THE WEEK. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF A RECORD HIGH OR TWO BEING SET THROUGH THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS; MAINLY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON, ACROSS THE PLAINS DUE TO THE WARMTH, DRYNESS AND FAIRLY
BREEZY WINDS THAT ARE EXPECTED.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ON
THURSDAY INCREASES AND BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY BY FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE TROUGH AXIS IS OVER THE WESTERN
COLORADO BORDER 00Z SATURDAY, THEN IT MOVES ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH
MID DAY SATURDAY. THE GFS IS STRONGER THAN THE ECMWF WITH THIS
FEATURE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE
CWA FRIDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. STRONG
NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT MOVES IN EARLY SUNDAY BUT THEN DECREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1035 AM MST MON NOV 10 2025
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT
OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY... AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE SHOULD BE SOME
INCREASE IN GUSTS AT BJC AFTER 06Z. SOME GUIDANCE TRIES TO PUSH
SOME STRONGER WEST/SOUTHWESTERLIES INTO DEN/APA TUESDAY MORNING,
BUT I'M A LITTLE SKEPTICAL OF THE STRONGER GUSTS SUGGESTED BY THE
HRRR. EITHER WAY, A GRADUAL TURN FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST IS
EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY TUESDAY, SETTLING ON A
NORTHERLY COMPONENT NEAR OR AFTER 18Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION...HIRIS
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