362
FXUS65 KBOU 112130
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
230 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE WEEKEND.
- AN WEAK UPPER TROUGH MY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE MOUNTAINS
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 229 PM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
CURRENTLY, SATELLITE PICTURE SHOW DECREASING UPPER LEVEL LEE WAVE
CLOUDINESS OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA AT THIS TIME. IN THE LOWER
LEVELS, DECENT NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPING WINDS ARE IN PLACE FOR
THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS AND MOST OF THE PLAINS. RADAR IS SHOWING
A LONGMONT ANTICYCLONE WITH SOME NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER
SOME OF THE GREATER DENVER AREA.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW MODERATELY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
FOR THE CWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS OVER
COLORADO FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MODERATE ZONAL FLOW MUCH
OF THE TIME. THE QG FIELDS SHOW VERY WEAK TO NEUTRAL SYNOPTIC SCALE
ENERGY THROUGH FRIDAY.
FOR MOISTURE, CROSS SECTIONS SHOW VARYING DEGREES OF UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FOR THE CWA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTER THAT
IT IS PRETTY DRY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, BUT VERY LITTLE IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE
QPF FIELDS DO NOT SHOW ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CWA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A MINIMAL AMOUNT PROGGED OVER THE FAR
NORTHWESTERN CWA FRIDAY NIGHT.
FOR TEMPERATURES, THICKNESS FIELDS KEEP THE DAILY HIGHS ABOUT 10 TO
15 DEGREES F ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE WILL BE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS OVER THE PLAINS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IF WIND SPEEDS INCREASE ABOVE THE
LATEST PROGS AND GFE GRIDS, FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BECOME
CRITICAL.
FOR THE LATER DAYS, SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY, MODELS SHOW UPPER
RIDGING OVER THE CWA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE LATEST MODELS NOW
SHOW AN UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVE ACROSS COLORADO FROM LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS MORE UPPER RIDGING TO FOLLOW
ON TUESDAY. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS POOR CONCERNING BOTH MODEL
CONSISTENCY AND INTER MODEL AGREEMENT. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY, WITH HIGHER CHANCES IN
THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES COOL OFF THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
READINGS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS SUNDAY ONWARD AND EVEN BELOW
NORMALS BY TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1059 AM MST TUE NOV 11 2025
GUSTY W/SW WINDS FROM ABOUT 250 DEGREES HAVE BEEN STRONGER AND
MORE PERSISTENT SO FAR. HOWEVER, WITH CONTINUED MIXING, THOSE
WINDS WILL TREND MORE W/NW. ALSO, POTENTIAL FOR ANTICYCLONE WILL
MEAN WINDS LIKELY SHIFTING MORE N/NE ANYWHERE FROM 19Z-23Z. THE
FIRST PUSH IS ALREADY MANIFESTING ITSELF JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF
KDEN, WITH ABOUT A 30% CHANCE THIS MAKES IT'S WAY TOTALLY ACROSS
THE AIRPORT 19Z-20Z, AND A 50-60% CHANCE IT MAKES IT OVER THE
NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AIRPORT. THAT INITIAL SURGE COULD WEAKEN
OR MIX OUT AGAIN THROUGH 21Z, BUT CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY THERE.
THEREFORE, WE'LL BLEND TO A MORE NW COMPONENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD
IN THE TAF, BUT THE POTENTIAL SHIFT IS CERTAINLY SOMETHING TO
WATCH IN THE NEAR TERM. THERE IS MORE CONFIDENCE OF A STRONGER
ANTICYCLONIC PUSH LATE IN THE DAY, SO WE'LL FORECAST NE WINDS
DEVELOPING 22Z-23Z. THEN EXPECT A TRANSITION TO MORE SE BY 01Z
BEFORE NORMAL SSW WINDS DEVELOP BY 03Z-05Z. WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WILL BE LIGHTER (<10 KTS) AND FOLLOW MORE NORMAL DIURNAL WIND
PATTERNS. VFR CONDITONS WILL PERSIST WITH ONLY SCT- BKN HIGH
CIRRUS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
DISCUSSION...66
AVIATION.....20
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