118
FXUS65 KBOU 272355
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
455 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DRY THROUGH MIDDAY FRIDAY WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES.
- FIRST TASTE OF WINTER WEATHER THIS WEEKEND, WITH SNOW LIKELY
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
- SECOND ROUND OF SNOW FOR THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY SPREADING EAST ONTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PLAINS LATE
IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WITH SUBSIDENT FLOW HAS MADE FOR A PLEASANT
THANKSGIVING. MOST OF THE DENVER METRO HAS TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
WHILE THE REST OF THE PLAINS ARE IN THE 40S. TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE
MILD TEMPERATURES WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
ON FRIDAY, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHES COLORADO FROM THE WEST. STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE BEGINNING MIDDAY. SLIGHT LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE HIGH TEMPERATURES TOMORROW.
DENVER WILL SEE A HIGH IN THE LOW 60S WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REST OF THE PLAINS. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE WEST THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN IN THE
MOUNTAINS AFTER ABOUT 2PM. POPS AND QPF WERE INCREASED FROM 2-5PM TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS ARRIVAL OF THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE PLAINS WILL BE DRY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 209 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
MILD CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WEST WINDS LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, FOOTHILLS, AND NEARBY PLAINS.
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT SURGES SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
COLORADO AROUND MIDNIGHT AND THEN RACES SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL, BECOMING COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW NOT
LONG AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOST MODELS AND ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS SHOW SNOW LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE QUITE LIGHT, 0.05-0.10 (IN), WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE FOR THIS QUICK MOVING MOISTURE STARVED SYSTEM.
NORTHERLY DOWNSLOPE WINDS OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE COULD PRODUCE
ENOUGH DRYING TO SQUASH SNOWFALL TO THE NORTH OF DENVER FROM FORT
COLLINS TO GREELEY TO FORT MORGAN. THUS OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS ZERO TO 2 INCHES. FOR THE MOUNTAINS, A
LITTLE MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH UP TO 6 INCHES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS.
SNOW COMES TO END MID TO LATE SATURDAY MORNING. ROADS COULD BE
SLIPPERY FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY MORNING WHERE IT SNOWS. CLEARING
WILL HELP MELT THE SNOW OFF THE ROADS, BUT TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST
COLORADO.
SKIES CLOUD UP SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM NEARING THE AREA
FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE STORM TRACK IS FARTHER WEST AS IT
DIVES SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A LITTLE MORE SNOW FOR
THE MOUNTAINS THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP DURING THE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND THEN SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IF TRAVELING IN
THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY, EXPECT ROAD CONDITIONS TO SLOWLY WORSEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, SO BEST TO TRAVEL
EARLIER IN THE DAY. SOME OF THIS SNOW MAY SPREAD EAST ONTO THE
PLAINS, WHERE LIGHT AMOUNTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN.
FOR MONDAY, NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH. LIGHT SNOW MAY LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS, WHILE THE MAIN AREA OF SNOW SHIFTS SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS
IN THE 30S ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
TRAVELS SOUTHWARD ACROSS BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY, AND THEN SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A
WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SOME MODELS SHOW A MORE
WESTERLY TRACK TAKING THIS SYSTEM SOUTH ACROSS THE SIERRAS. AT THE
OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM, OTHER MODELS SHOW THIS SYSTEM
SPLITTING. ONE PIECE OF ENERGY TRAVELS FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE OTHER PART DIVES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST TO THE
FOUR CORNERS. AS FAR AS COLORADO WEATHER GOES, EXPECT A WARM UP
TUESDAY AS FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO THE WEST AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THE
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A CHANCE FOR SNOW RETURNS FOR WEDNESDAY AS
THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE REGION. WITH THIS SYSTEM
TRAVELING ALONG THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES, MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
BE LIMITED WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AGAIN. COOLER
TEMPERATURES LIKELY CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY AND DEPENDING ON THE
SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM, THE CHANCE FOR SNOW COULD CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 433 PM MST THU NOV 27 2025
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE DCVZ CONTINUES
TO KEEP WINDS IN ALL DIRECTIONS OVER KDEN THIS EVENING, AS THE
CENTER OF THE CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY OVER THE AIRFIELD. WHILE
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE LIGHT (3-8 KTS) AT THIS TIME, THE NE AND
NW WINDS ARE RANGING FROM 10-17 KTS. WE ARE STILL EXPECTING WINDS
TO TRANSITION TOWARDS DRAINAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH A
SLIGHT HEDGE TOWARDS THE NW WINDS WINNING OUT IN THE SHORT TERM.
FOR FRIDAY, DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO THE WNW
TO N THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TAF SITES.
THERE IS A 10-20% CHANCE WE COULD SEE A FEW WNW GUSTS REACHING
15-25 KTS MIX DOWN IN THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TAF SITES, BUT
THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT WINDS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT
(UNDER 10 KTS) ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...DANIELSON
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...9
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