499
FXUS65 KBOU 282025
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
125 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ARRIVING SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
- SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED IN OUR MOUNTAINS TONIGHT,
IMPACTING TRAVEL ACROSS ALL PASSES. LIGHT FLURRIES POSSIBLE
(~60% CHANCE) FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS (LITTLE/NO ACCUMULATION).
- ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE MOUNTAIN SNOW EXPECTED
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. FLEETING CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW (~30%) FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AGAIN.
- SLIGHTLY MILDER AND MOSTLY DRY MONDAY/TUESDAY. THEN ANOTHER
POTENTIAL SHOT AT WINTRY PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
RADAR IS SHOWING THE FIRST FEW SIGNS OF ELEVATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING UPSTREAM OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY NORTH OF I-70, ALTHOUGH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOKS RATHER LACKLUSTER THUS FAR. NONETHELESS,
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN FREQUENCY OVER OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WE ENTER OUR EVENING HOURS IN PARTICULAR, WITH
THE BULK OF THE SNOW FROM THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM ANTICIPATED TO FALL
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE STORY IMPACT-WISE WILL
REMAIN FOCUSED OVER OUR HIGH COUNTRY, WHERE A RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD 3-6" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CREATE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF OUR MOUNTAIN PASSES INTO THE
MORNING HOURS. LOCALLY FAVORED WEST-FACING SLOPES IN OUR NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS (MAINLY NORTH OF I-70) MAY APPROACH 8".
MEANWHILE, THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL BE GRASPING AT STRAWS TO SEE
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WHATSOEVER, AS HAS SEEMINGLY BEEN THE CASE
THROUGHOUT THE FALL. THERE ARE TWO WINDOWS OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
LIGHT SHOWERS; THE FIRST WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF THE FAST-MOVING JET STREAK ZIPS OVERHEAD, AND MID-
LEVEL MOISTURE SPILLS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. IF (AND IT'S
A FAIRLY LARGE "IF") ANY SHOWERS DO DEVELOP, THEY'D MORE LIKELY
BRING A WINTRY MIX, WITH NEAR ZERO POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATION.
FOLLOWING THAT, THE SECOND WINDOW ARRIVES IN TANDEM WITH THE COLD
FRONT, STILL SLATED FOR THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS APPEARS MARGINALLY HIGHER THEN (CLOSER TO 60% CHANCE), AND
WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN THE FORM OF SNOW WITH A SHARP FRONTAL
TEMPERATURE DROP, BUT WE WILL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH
MORE THAN A DUSTING TO HALF INCH OF SNOW IF THOSE MATERIALIZE,
WITH ~1" STILL BEING CLOSE TO THE ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM (AND CERTAINLY
NOT WIDESPREAD). THE TREND, PER USUAL, IS NOT IN FAVOR OF SNOW.
ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCALIZED SLICK SPOTS MAY BE FOUND EARLY MORNING,
THE MORNING COMMUTE SHOULD BE LARGELY UNAFFECTED FOR MOST URBAN
CORRIDOR LOCATIONS. SO THE ULTIMATE QUESTION: WILL DENVER BREAK
ITS SNOWLESS FALL STREAK TONIGHT? IT'S GENUINELY A COIN TOSS.
WHAT THE FRONT WILL BE LACKING IN MOISTURE, IT WILL MAKE UP FOR IN
WINTER-LIKE TEMPERATURES, AND SATURDAY'S HIGHS WILL BE
APPROXIMATELY 30 DEGREES COLDER THAN TODAY'S, REMAINING NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW FREEZING FOR THE PLAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL FALL TO THEIR LOWEST VALUES SO FAR
THIS SEASON, REGISTERING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS FOR
MOUNTAIN AND PLAINS COMMUNITIES RESPECTIVELY.
THE COLD AIRMASS WILL STICK AROUND FOR A LITTLE WHILE AS WE SEE A
SECOND, MORE TILTED TROUGH DIG SOUTH OVER COLORADO. DESPITE ITS
MORE AMPLIFIED NATURE, THE SPATIAL PATTERN IN ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE FIRST SYSTEM - LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS (GENERALLY
LESS THAN THAT RECEIVED TONIGHT) SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT, WITH AN
INCREASINGLY UNIMPRESSIVE CHANCE (~30-40%) FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
SPILLING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. PERHAPS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR ACCUMULATIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WOULD BE FOR THE
PALMER DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE WEAK
UPSLOPE COMPONENT, BUT THE LATEST ENSEMBLES ARE NOT OVERLY EXCITED
FOR THE MEASURABLE SNOW POTENTIAL ELSEWHERE. REGARDLESS, WE'LL
HOLD ON TO COLD TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE FREEZING
MARK DURING THE DAY, AND RETURNING INTO THE TEENS OR EVEN A FEW
SINGLE DIGITS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TIMEFRAME WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY GRADUAL
WARMING (SLIGHT ON MONDAY, MORE SUBSTANTIAL FOR TUESDAY) AND
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS, OUTSIDE OF A SMALL CHANCE (~25%) OF A
FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS SHOWERS LATER TUESDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER
POTENTIAL TROUGHING PATTERN. IT'S WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS
LITTLE AGREEMENT IN THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL EARLY TO
MID-WEEK, WITH SOME GUIDANCE SIGNALING A MORE PROGRESSIVE
SHORTWAVE WITH VARYING TRACKS, AND OTHERS FAVORING DEVELOPMENT OF
A CLOSED OR CUTOFF LOW OVER CALIFORNIA. ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS
ARE THUS THE BEST WAY TO GO AT THIS TIME, WHICH WOULD FAVOR A
RETURN TO COOLER AND POTENTIALLY "WETTER" CONDITIONS (PLEASE NOTE
THE INCLUSION OF QUOTATION MARKS HERE) FOR WEDNESDAY AND PERHAPS
INTO THURSDAY. APPROXIMATELY 70-80% OF MEMBERS CARRY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS INTO OUR MOUNTAINS FOR MID-WEEK, WITH THAT
PROPORTION FALLING TO AROUND 50% FOR OUR LOWER ELEVATIONS.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MST FRI NOV 28 2025
VERY LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS OR VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL
THREE TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK BOUNDARY IS
LURKING TO THE NORTHEAST OF DEN WHICH COULD SHIFT WINDS TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT, SOME MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS WILL CREATE RAIN SHOWERS
(POSSIBLE MIXED WITH SNOWFLAKES) AROUND THE TERMINALS BETWEEN
04-08Z. MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED FROM THESE SHOWERS AS
CEILINGS COULD DECREASE TO 6,000 FEET BUT A PROB30 WAS ADDED.
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 07-10Z. GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND IT WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 KNOTS FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. LOW CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO FORM WITH 2,000-3,000 FOOT CEILINGS
THAT COULD BRIEFLY GET AS LOW AS 1,200 FEET. MODEL DATA IS
BECOMING MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHETHER IT WILL SNOW AT THE
TERMINALS OR NOT. THERE IS STILL A 60% CHANCE LIGHT SNOW FALLS BUT
THE CHANCE IT REMAINS DRY SEEMS TO BE INCREASING. IF THE SNOW DOES
OCCUR, VISIBILITY WOULD BE IN THE 1-3 SM RANGE.
LOW CEILINGS WILL BREAK IN THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REST OF THE DAY SATURDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
25 KNOTS.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 AM MST
SATURDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...DANIELSON
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page