126
FXUS65 KBOU 010536
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1036 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES (AND EVEN THE BANDED SNOW OVER
THE PALMER DIVIDE) DIMINISHING RATHER QUICKLY LATE THIS EVENING.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN 2 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS.
- REMAINING VERY COLD THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
- INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN RETURN OF SNOW TO MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY,
INCLUDING HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR LOWER ELEVATION TRAVEL IMPACTS
SO FAR THIS SEASON.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 1234 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED ON SCHEDULE IN OUR HIGH COUNTRY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON UNDER A DEEPENING MOISTURE
COLUMN. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS SO WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE WESTERN SLOPE, AND WE CAN EXPECT TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN OUR
MOUNTAINS TO DETERIORATE STEADILY IN THE COMING HOURS AS THIS
MIGRATES EASTWARD. THE OVERALL PICTURE THROUGH TONIGHT REMAINS
RELATIVELY UNCHANGED, WITH SOME BANDED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
SPILL INTO THE URBAN CORRIDOR AS EARLY AS 4-5PM, BUT MOSTLY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR THESE BANDS WILL BE
ROUGHLY SOUTH OF I-70 AS DESCRIBED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS, OWING
TO THE MORE FAVORABLE JET STREAK POSITION ALOFT AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE. MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL RECEIVE LESS THAN 1",
BUT LOCALIZED NARROW CORRIDORS MAY ACCUMULATE 2 OR EVEN 3" UNDER
THE HEAVIEST/MOST PERSISTENT BANDS, ENOUGH FOR SOME ENHANCED
TRAVEL IMPACTS, AND MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN PLAINS. SNOWFALL ASIDE, TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN NOTABLY
SLOW TO CLIMB, WITH MOST OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BARELY REACHING
INTO THE LOWER 20'S AS OF THIS WRITING. THIS TREND WILL CARRY OVER
INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH ANOTHER COLD NIGHT AHEAD BRINGING
LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS FOR MOST AREAS.
TUESDAY'S WARMING WILL BE MODEST AS THE TROUGH AXIS PUSHES EAST,
AND HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWNWARD SLIGHTLY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
FIRMLY IN THE 30'S ACROSS THE PLAINS/I-25 CORRIDOR, AND 20'S FOR
MOST MOUNTAIN COMMUNITIES. IT WILL BE AN OTHERWISE DRY DAY PAST
SUNRISE, WITH A DISTINCT LULL IN MOUNTAIN SNOW AND CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE REGION.
STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL REIGNITE THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ON
TUESDAY, WITH RECENT RUNS A LITTLE MORE BULLISH ON ACCUMULATING
SNOW POTENTIAL, PARTICULARLY FOR THE PARK AND MEDICINE BOW RANGES.
AMOUNTS SHOULD NONETHELESS BE RATHER MINOR GIVEN STILL LIMITED
MOISTURE.
CONFIDENCE IN THE ARRIVAL OF ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY HAS
CONTINUED TO INCREASE WITH THE LATEST GUIDANCE, WHICH FAVORS A
SHEARING SHORTWAVE DESCENDING INTO AZ/NM BEFORE LIFTING NE INTO
THE PLAINS COME THURSDAY. THIS PATH EASILY GENERATES THE HIGHEST
POTENTIAL FOR WINTER WEATHER TRAVEL IMPACTS TO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS YET THIS SEASON, EVEN IF QUESTIONS REMAIN REGARDING
ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS. THERE'S MODERATE CONSENSUS IN A PERIOD OF
MODEST NORTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY, WHICH
WOULD PROMOTE QUITE HIGH (~75-80%) PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR
OUR FOOTHILLS, DENVER METRO AND PALMER DIVIDE IN PARTICULAR.
HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM WON'T LACK SPEED, WITH ITS RAPID EASTWARD
MOTION BEING A LIMITING FACTOR IN SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. ENSEMBLE QPF
SPREAD APPEARS QUITE UNIMODAL AND SYMMETRIC, GENERALLY FAVORING
0.1-0.3" OF QPF FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WITH A SMALL
HANDFUL OF BOTH DRIER AND WETTER SCENARIOS. STILL TIME TO TREND
IN EITHER DIRECTION, OF COURSE.
AS THE LOW MERGES WITH THE BROADER SYNOPTIC FLOW THURSDAY, WE LOOK
TO RETURN TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WITH TROUGHING TO OUR
NORTH AND RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE WEST COAST. THE NUANCES
IN THE PATTERN CAN'T YET BE DISCERNED, BUT THE DOOR WILL REMAIN
OPEN FOR THE PASSAGE OF A FEW SHORTWAVES UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW THAT
WOULD SUSTAIN A FEW WINDOWS FOR PREDOMINANTLY MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL.
WITH THE BULK OF THE TROUGHING EXPECT TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH, OUR
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLY POSITIONED FOR SOME
ADDITIONAL HEALTHY SNOWFALL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN ALSO LENDS ITSELF TO MORE ROBUST PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN FLOW AND HENCE STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MST SUN NOV 30 2025
THE THREAT OF ANY LIGHT SNOW FOR THE DENVER AREA TAF SITES HAS
ESSENTIALLY ENDED. DRIER AIR IS ALREADY WORKING IN FROM THE NORTH,
BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A COUPLE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT. THERE ARE PATCHES
OF STRATUS AND MVFR CEILINGS AROUND (WHERE THOSE FLURRIES WOULD
ORIGINATE), MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A TEMPO
LOWER DECK. WE DON'T THINK IT WILL BE TOO PERSISTENT GIVEN RECENT
TRENDS, BUT SOME LOWERING POSSIBLE 08Z-11Z AS BATCH OF LOWER
CLOUDS LURKS TO THE NORTH AND WE HAVE LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW IN
PLACE. THAT ESSENTIALLY A BATTLE BETWEEN ADVECTION AND LIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT. AFTER 11Z, LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE
PRONOUNCED DOWNSLOPE WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW TO HELP
BREAK UP REMAINING LOW CLOUDS. THEN VFR WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
DAY MONDAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES, AND ONLY SOME THICKENING
CIRRUS THROUGH 06Z-12Z TUESDAY.
WINDS ON MONDAY MAY VERY WELL END UP VARIABLE FOR A FEW HOURS WITH
AN ANTICYCLONE TRYING TO DEVELOP ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR. WE DO
THINK KDEN HAS A FEW HOURS OF LIKELY NORTH WINDS TO AROUND 8-14
KTS 17Z-22Z, BUT THEN TRANSITIONING TO SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH RATHER
QUICKLY BY 01Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST MONDAY FOR COZ031-033-034.
DISCUSSION...BRQ
AVIATION...20
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