811
FXUS65 KBOU 141732
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
1032 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- UNSEASONABLY WARM AND DRY THROUGH TUESDAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- REMAINING WARM WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED, LEADING TO
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW EXPECTED WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS.
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
COLD FRONT HAS BACKED SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND
URBAN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES REACHED THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE URBAN CORRIDOR BEFORE FALLING IN THE
MID 40S TO LOWER 50S AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. OVER THE FAR
NORTHEAST CORNER OF COLORADO, TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 20S
MOST OF THE DAY WITH FOGGY CONDITIONS. THE FOG WILL LINGER MUCH OF
THE NIGHT HERE OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST CORNER. THE COLD ARCTIC
HIGH OFF TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM COLORADO. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
THAT WILL SCOUR THE COLDER AIR OUT LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
COLDER AIR MAY HANG ON FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY OVER THE
NORTHEAST PLAINS, BUT EVENTUALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO
THE 40S TO MID 50S. FARTHER WEST, ALONG THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
TEMPERATURES SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 60S DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 249 PM MST SAT DEC 13 2025
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY OF THE WEEK THIS
WEEK, ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT MIDWEEK
AND ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN
DRY, ASIDE FROM OROGRAPHIC SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
THE BEGINNING THIS WEEK WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET, AS WE WILL BE
SITUATED UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. MULTI-RUN ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
HAVE CONTINUED TO INDICATE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES BETWEEN THE HIGH 50S
TO LOW 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS AND 30S/40S IN THE MOUNTAINS/VALLEYS.
WITH THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20% AND
BREEZY WINDS OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE, BRIEF PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WINDS
SHOULD STAY RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS OTHER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, WHICH WILL KEEP FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT BAY.
WEATHER BEGINS TO PICK UP ON WEDNESDAY, AS FLOW ALOFT INCREASES WITH
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TREKKING ACROSS THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING OF STRONG WINDS IMPACTING THE HIGH COUNTRY
AND POSSIBLY ADJACENT PLAINS. HOWEVER, IT IS TOO SOON TO GO INTO
SPECIFICS, AS THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN MODELS IN TERMS
OF INGREDIENTS FOR STRONG WINDS TO REACH DOWN TO THE FOOTHILLS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE
NORTH OF US, AS THAT WILL DICTATE IF OUR FLOW ALOFT IS MORE ZONAL OR
NORTHWESTERLY. REGARDLESS, EXPECT A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA, WITH NBM INDICATING A 60% FOR WIND GUSTS >70 MPH FOR THE FRONT
RANGE MOUNTAINS, AND A 40-50% FOR GUSTS >50 MPH AT TIMES ALONG
THE FOOTHILLS. EVEN IF RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES STAY MARGINAL
(20-25%), STRONG WINDS WILL ALLOW ELEVATED TO BRIEFLY CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PLAINS.
AS FOR PRECIPITATION, OUR NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY RECEIVE OROGRAPHIC
SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MINIMAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED, AS THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF MOISTURE
IN OUR AREA. PARK RANGE WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE MOST SNOW, WITH
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS INDICATING <6".
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK, EXPECT WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS STRONG AHEAD OF ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO
OUR NORTH. PERIODS OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY,
AS FORECASTED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD BE AROUND 20%.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 1032 AM MST SUN DEC 14 2025
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT AND MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE
THE PREDOMINANT DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL AT DEN AND
APA. HOWEVER, A DEVELOPING CYCLONE LIKELY DISRUPTS THE SOUTH
WINDS WITH A PERIOD OF VARIABLE AND/OR NORTHERLY WINDS 19-01Z.
WINDS THEN RETURN TO THE SOUTH FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING.
ANOTHER CYCLONE MAY FORM MONDAY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY BRINGING WEAK
NORTH AND/OR VARIABLE WINDS. FOR BJC, EXCEPT FOR SOME WEST WINDS
TONIGHT, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
MONDAY.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...MAI
AVIATION...12
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