589
FXUS65 KBOU 052346
AFDBOU
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
446 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- BREEZY OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN TUESDAY WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.
- SNOW AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH
THIS EVENING, TAPERING OFF TO SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LATE
TONIGHT.
- LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND MILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- STILL EXPECTING COLDER, UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNING FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW INCREASING TO 60-70% FOR
I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR.
DISCUSSION /THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 244 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
BREEZY CONDITIONS HAVE SPREAD EAST ACROSS MOST OF THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH ELEVATED TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DUE TO CONTINUED DRYNESS AND LOW HUMIDITY. MEANWHILE,
IN THE MOUNTAINS WE'VE SEEN AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE SHOWERS,
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRODUCING SLICK AND HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL.
THOSE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THIS EVENING, AND AS
TEMPERATURES DROP MORE IMPACTS WILL BE FOUND ON THE LOWER MOUNTAIN
SLOPES AND DOWN INTO THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. WE'LL MAINTAIN THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ZONE 31 THROUGH THE NIGHT, WHILE
LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOW (2-4" ADDITIONAL) CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE
FRONT RANGE MOUNTAINS INTO SUMMIT COUNTY. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE
AND PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET MEANS A FEW SPOTS COULD GET
MORE. ALSO, IT WON'T BE IMPOSSIBLE TO SEE A BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
SPILL ALL THE WAY ONTO THE NEARBY ADJACENT PLAINS DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY AND STRONG FLOW ALOFT. WE'VE ADDED A LOW POP FOR
LOCATIONS WEST OF I-25 EARLY THIS EVENING, BUT IT WOULDN'T BE
ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF RAIN/GRAUPEL SHOWER. THE AIRMASS WILL
BE SUBSIDENT THROUGH THE NIGHT, AND WE'LL SEE A DRYING TREND WHICH
MEANS A DECREASE IN MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT
OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WE DON'T EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
LINGERING SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.
THE CONTINUED SUBSIDENCE ALONG WITH MODEST GRADIENT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN WAVE ENHANCEMENT DOES PROMOTE A CONTINUATION OF
BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS IN/NEAR THE FRONT RANGE OVERNIGHT. THOSE
WINDS WILL BE SPREADING EAST AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY WITH
FURTHER MIXING, ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE REMAINS MIXED ON EXACTLY HOW
STRONG AND HOW FAR EAST THEY MAKE IT. AT THIS TIME, IT APPEARS THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE MAINLY FOCUSED TO AREAS WEST OF I-25 AND
ESPECIALLY BOULDER/NORTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTIES. WITH ADDITIONAL
DRYING BUT STILL MILD TEMPERATURES, WE'LL SEE AT LEAST ELEVATED IF
NOT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. WE WON'T BE
ISSUING ANY HIGHLIGHTS AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER, AS IT APPEARS THOSE
CONDITIONS WOULD BE RATHER LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE TO WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST HUMIDITY OVERLAP. THAT WOULD BE MAINLY
EASTERN BOULDER AND NORTHEAST JEFFERSON COUNTY.
WEDNESDAY CONTINUES TO FEATURE SOMEWHAT CALMER WEATHER IN BETWEEN
WEATHER SYSTEMS AND FLAT RIDGING OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, IT WILL STILL
BE BREEZY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY IN/NEAR THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS.
NOW, ADDRESSING OUR NEXT SHOT OF SNOW FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TO SOMEWHAT SNOWIER SOLUTIONS FOR THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THERE'S A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
ENSEMBLE DATA SHOWING A TROUGH DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND GREAT BASIN THURSDAY, AND THEN MOVING EAST/SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WPC CLUSTER ANALYSIS
SHOWS A VARIETY OF FASTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEMS, AND A
DIGGIER SOLUTION LIKE THE LATEST OPERATIONAL EC. WHAT WAS IN OUR
FAVOR IS THAT THE EC ENSEMBLE SYSTEM HAS NEARLY ALL MEMBERS
PRODUCING SNOW DOWN INTO DENVER AND THE MAJORITY OF THE I-25
CORRIDOR. MEAN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS HAVE INCREASED FROM 24 HOURS AGO,
AND REMAINED STEADY WITH THE LAST 12Z RUN AVERAGING ABOUT 0.25"
LIQUID EQUIVALENT FOR DENVER, AND A RELATIVELY NARROW RANGE OF
GUIDANCE FROM BOTTOM TO TOP. VERY FEW RUNS HAD GREATER THAN 5" OF
SNOW, SO OVERALL THIS STILL LOOKS LIKE A LIGHT SNOW EVENT. WITH
BETTER AGREEMENT IN AT LEAST SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION, WE'VE
INCREASED OUR SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE TURNING COLDER DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND SNOW DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE, AS LONG AS IT SNOW INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT WE WOULD EXPECT SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS THAT COULD
LAST INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.
AFTER THAT SYSTEM, WE'LL FALL INTO NORTHWEST FLOW AND POTENTIAL
FOR A COUPLE BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS INTO THE WEEKEND. THESE ARE VERY
DIFFICULT TO TIME BUT OVERALL IT APPEARS DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL
WITH A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE. A BLOCKING
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN U.S. NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS A CONTINUATION OF MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND RELATIVELY MILD
TEMPERATURES, AS LONG AS THE RIDGE AXIS/EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
DON'T RETROGRADE FURTHER THAN CURRENT GUIDANCE.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 435 PM MST MON JAN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS TAF PACKAGE. WIND GUSTS
AT KDEN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 30 MINUTES OR SO, WITH WINDS
TURNING MORE NW AROUND 11KTS. WINDS AT KBJC WILL REMAIN GUSTY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 TO
30KTS. KAPA WILL SEE INTERMITTENT GUSTS AROUND 24KTS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BEFORE THEY WEAKEN AROUND 2Z. WINDS OVERNIGHT AT KDEN
AND KAPA WILL TURN FROM SW TO SSE, BEFORE FLIPPING BACK TO THE
W/NW FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. KBJC COULD SEE A PERIOD OF EASTERLY
WINDS IN THE MORNING, UNTIL STRONG WEST WINDS PUSH BACK INTO THE
AREA AROUND 17Z.
BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST TUESDAY FOR COZ031.
DISCUSSION...20
AVIATION...AP
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